Not too lengthy after giving defenseman Esa Lindell a five-year extension by means of the 2029-30 season, the Dallas Stars locked up their final key unsigned participant, Thomas Harley. The 23-year-old left-shot defender signed a two-year take care of a $4 million cap hit. He’ll nonetheless be a restricted free agent (RFA) within the 2026 offseason when his new contract is up.
We signed Thomas Harley. 🫡@Shift4 | #TexasHockey
— Dallas Stars (@DallasStars) September 18, 2024
In 79 video games final season, Harley scored 15 objectives and 32 assists for 47 factors, boasting a plus-28 score. He additionally averaged 21:01 of ice time, up considerably from his common of 14:09 in 40 contests from 2021-22 to 2022-23.
Is Harley the Lengthy-Time period Accomplice for Heiskanen?
The Stars’ high defender, Miro Heiskanen, bought himself a brand new defensive companion final season. He performed 619 of his even-strength minutes with Harley, which was essentially the most of anybody on the staff. Ryan Suter was simply shy with 588 minutes subsequent to Heiskanen, however he was purchased out within the offseason, that means he’s out of the equation. It looks as if Harley will probably be on the highest pair with probably the greatest within the enterprise as soon as once more.
Heiskanen most definitely benefitted from having Harley by his facet (and vice versa, after all). Of their ice time collectively, the 2 held a 60.0 anticipated objectives proportion (xGF%), putting them third out of the 60 defensive pairings within the league with at the very least 500 minutes of ice time final season. When it comes to relative xGF% (xGF% Rel), they completed twenty second, which remains to be excellent.
When Suter was within the image as an alternative of Harley, that xGF% solely fell to tenth however the xGF% Rel dropped to a subpar thirty fourth. When it comes to producing scoring probabilities total, the Harley and Heiskanen pairing was supreme. For that purpose, it’s logical to see that duo stay collectively and sure play near your entire 2024-25 season collectively so long as well being permits it.
Harley solely signing for 2 years here’s a results of the Stars’ spending within the offseason (one thing I’ll get to) but in addition as a result of staff forcing this younger participant to show himself. In spite of everything, he solely had 40 video games below his belt previous to final season and was merely getting used for depth minutes—a long-term deal would’ve been an enormous danger, particularly for a contender like Dallas.
Stars Prioritizing Cap Flexibility
Again in Could, I mentioned the next quote in my contract prediction for this budding defender: “Finally, Harley and the Stars could have two choices: signal a bridge deal, or get a long-term contract out of the best way as shortly as doable. One possibility would give Dallas some wiggle room within the brief time period, whereas the opposite may extend their Cup window if the worth is nice sufficient.”
I predicted the latter would occur, however it is smart why the Stars weren’t eager on throwing a bunch of cash at Harley instantly. Not solely is he unproven, however they’re attempting to win a championship. They’ve misplaced within the Western Convention Ultimate in back-to-back seasons, proving that they’re proper there with the perfect groups within the NHL.
Had Dallas given Harley an eight-year deal, for instance, they wouldn’t have plenty of flexibility cap-wise subsequent offseason as a result of the asking worth would’ve been larger. Following this season, Wyatt Johnston is due for an extension—that’ll be dear. As a substitute of getting to restructure elements of the staff to make room, the thought right here is that there’ll be sufficient spending cash to carry each key participant again.
On the finish of the day, the worth right here is fairly good for Harley if he continues to enhance his sport. Within the 2026 offseason when his deal is up, the Stars may need to pay a fortune to retain his rights, nevertheless.
Stats courtesy of Pure Stat Trick
