Does a tough second half matter in October? Some World Collection hopefuls would possibly wish to look away

Who doesn’t love what-if query, so let’s ask this one:

What if this baseball season had began in the midst of July as a substitute of the final week of March? Have you ever thought a lot about how in another way we’d be viewing practically each contender within the sport?

After all you haven’t. However that’s what we’re right here for. So check out the second-half information of all of the groups that might make the postseason if the event began right this moment, with the Braves and Mets each included since they’re tied for the ultimate NL wild-card spot. First, let’s take a look at …

The Good

Padres: 30-13
Diamondbacks: 30-14
Dodgers: 28-15
Brewers: 26-17
Mets: 27-18
Astros: 25-19
Royals: 24-20

We will discuss these groups another time. However now let’s hone in on the remainder of this group. See what jumps out at you as you peruse …

The Not So Good

Twins: 22-23
Guardians: 22-23
Phillies: 22-22
Orioles: 23-22
Yankees: 22-20
Braves: 23-22

You know which two groups jumped out at me? The Phillies and Guardians. Aren’t they the last word reminder {that a} baseball season can really feel as lengthy and winding because the Appalachian Path?

For greater than three months this season, the Phillies and Guardians owned the 2 finest information within the sport. Then baseball occurred.

On July 1, they have been each on 100-win paces. Now, as that standings chart illustrates so vividly, they’ve spent the previous two months taking part in extra like an 80-win staff than a 100-win staff. Humorous how that occurs. The query is, what does it imply for his or her win-the-World-Collection aspirations?

They’re not the primary groups in historical past to find how lengthy a baseball season actually is. However that isn’t the story right here.

The story is: A tough second half, for groups like this, typically means greater than you’d in all probability guess it means. I’ve finished the mathematics so that you don’t must.

The wild-card period is 30 seasons outdated now. You’d assume the wild-card security internet would have given many groups the rope to slog via a .500-ish second half — or worse — and nonetheless be able to rock in October. But when that’s what you’d assume, assume once more. Try what’s really occurred, simply within the theoretically extra forgiving wild-card period (1995-present).

Shedding second-half information, nonetheless made it to the World Collection

2023 Diamondbacks: 32-39
2006 Cardinals: 35-39
2006 Tigers: 36-38

Worst second-half information, gained the World Collection

2006 Cardinals: 35-39
1996 Yankees: 40-37
2014 Giants: 35-31

(Supply: Baseball Reference / Stathead)

Sure, you learn that proper. Within the wild-card period, just one staff has survived a dropping document after the All-Star break and nonetheless gained the World Collection. …

And solely three groups have performed .500 or worse and even lived to play in a World Collection — the place two of them (the 2006 Cardinals and Tigers) really matched up with one another. …

However even when we increase the bar barely, each World Collection winner in these final three a long time has been not less than 5 video games over .500 within the second half — apart from the three groups above.

So what does that inform us about baseball? Let’s ask the supervisor of the membership that had the worst second half of any of the groups on these lists — Torey Lovullo of the 2023 Diamondbacks.

“It’s an emotional curler coaster,” Lovullo instructed me and Doug Glanville on the newest episode of The Windup’s Starkville podcast. “This recreation is loopy. And it’ll put on you down.”

So how does any staff spin via that curler coaster and survive with sufficient equilibrium to hit the reset button in October?

“We discuss consistency,” Lovullo mentioned. “We simply wish to have guys that perceive the place they’re at and never get too excessive or not get too low. However ultimately, we’re going to search out our manner. It’s the insanity of a baseball season, and it does occur. And in case you let it spiral, it should take you into a spot that’s very darkish. However in case you consider that you simply’re going to discover a manner out of it, (you’ll be able to).”

Extra on the Diamondbacks momentarily. However first, let’s look extra intently on the Phillies and Guardians — and the way anxious they need to be about their very own second-half points.

The Phillies

THEIR GREATEST HITS — On July 9-10-11, the Phillies bulldozed Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers in a three-game sequence in Philadelphia. So 93 video games into their season, the Phillies have been 61-32. They have been on a 106-win tempo. They have been 6 1/2 video games up on L.A. within the race for the Nationwide League’s No. 1 seed. That they had the perfect pitching employees within the league and the deepest offense within the league. What may presumably go improper? Ha.

HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? So naturally, over the Phillies’ subsequent 35 video games, they went 13-22. Just one staff had a worse document over that six-week stretch. And it was — who else? — the White Sox. Simply three groups had a worse ERA in that span. And the Phillies’ once-rampaging offense scored practically 80 fewer runs in that stretch than Torey Lovullo’s Diamondbacks. So …

HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? There was one factor Dave Dombrowski knew: Regardless of the heck was occurring together with his staff, these 35 video games have been not telling him this group wasn’t gifted sufficient.

“We had eight All-Stars, proper?” the Phillies’ president of baseball operations mentioned. “In order that tells you you’re a really gifted staff. So that you don’t go from a staff that has quite a lot of expertise to not having any expertise.”

However Dombrowski did see a number of issues that involved him. One was the pitching — beginning with a banged-up rotation whose points wound up overtaxing the Phillies’ beforehand dominant bullpen.

However Dombrowski additionally was puzzled by the surprising decline of the offense after a persistently relentless first half. Subsequent factor he knew, that very same lineup spent a month re-enacting NLCS Video games 6 and seven towards the Diamondbacks.

Most of all, although, Dombrowski puzzled if possibly they’d all gotten too snug after such a dominant first half. The Phillies had such a giant lead by the center of June, they appeared to start out prioritizing what they might do to maintain their core wholesome for October. So Dombrowski admits he has requested himself if that presumably despatched the improper message.

“I don’t know,” he mentioned. “Possibly we set the tempo someplace. Possibly we began the long run reasonably than the quick time period. However I’m unsure about that.”

He simply knew there was time to repair what felt damaged. And over the past couple of weeks, the Phillies appear to have finished that, roaring via a 9-2 streak towards the Royals, Astros, Braves, Blue Jays and Marlins. So what modified? We’ll get again to that momentarily. However first …

The Guardians

THEIR GREATEST HITS — On the Fourth of July, the Guardians dusted off the White Sox to boost their document to 54-31. They led the AL Central by six video games (after as soon as main by as many as 9 in late June). That they had the perfect document within the American League, the fewest runs allowed within the league and 80 extra runs scored than that they had on the similar stage final season. So that they have been all set for a run at 100 wins, proper? Oops.

HOW WRONG COULD IT GO? The marathon is all the time longer than it appears. Over the subsequent 48 video games, the Guardians went 21-27. Solely two groups within the AL — the Angels and White Sox — had worse information in that stretch. The Guardians’ beginning pitching imploded (10-24, 4.87 ERA). And going by their 83 wRC+, solely two lineups in baseball have been much less productive.

By the tip of play on Aug. 27, after a 3rd straight loss at residence to Kansas Metropolis, the Guardians’ nine-game pad had, shockingly, disappeared. The Royals had tied them within the standings. And a good looking Cleveland baseball summer time didn’t appear so balmy anymore. So …

HOW’D THAT HAPPEN? Was it actually as bleak as all these messy factoids above made it appear? Not within the eyes of the Guardians’ unflappable president of baseball ops, Chris Antonetti.

“We had a very robust stretch of video games after the All-Star break,” Antonetti mentioned, “with seven of our 9 opponents in playoff place on the time we performed them.

“Final I regarded,” he went on, “I believe we’ve got the second-most wins within the AL towards groups with higher than a .500 document. So we’ve held our personal there.”

However does that document alone inform the complete story of the Guardians? I’m not so positive it does.

Early within the season, balls have been crusing over the fence. Steven Kwan appeared like he would possibly make a cost at .400. And this regarded like a very completely different offense than the group that completed twenty seventh in MLB in runs scored final yr — and useless final in homers.

However what did the subsequent seven weeks appear to be, after the White Sox left city on July 4? Not fairly so picturesque!

But in addition, there have been …

 (*Eleventh-best in MLB; **Ninth-lowest in MLB)

Just like the Phillies, the Guardians appear to have rebounded within the final week or so. They’ve gained 5 of their final seven. They’ve stretched their lead within the Central again to 4 video games. They usually averaged practically seven runs per recreation within the 5 wins. So when Antonetti seems at these final two months, he sees simply the conventional “ebbs and flows to the common season.”

He sees a rotation that appears a lot improved after the addition of Alex Cobb and Matthew Boyd. He sees an offense whose downturn stemmed principally from matchups with a bunch of fantastic staffs. So right here was his big-picture learn:

“Possibly I’m not interested by it deeply sufficient,” he mentioned. “However I’m unsure there’s an excessive amount of I’d make of it. There’s not quite a lot of predictability to which groups win and advance as soon as the postseason begins.”

Then he requested: “Didn’t Texas and Arizona (the 2 World Collection groups in 2023) wrestle in August final yr earlier than surging in September?”

Glorious query! The Rangers misplaced 16 of 20 in August and September, however then gained 17 of their subsequent 21 video games. And the Diamondbacks rocked via a wilder experience to the World Collection than any staff ever.

On July 1, they have been 16 video games over .500 (50-34). However then … repeat after me … baseball occurred. The Diamondbacks gained solely seven of their subsequent 32, propelling them from 16 video games over .500 to 2 video games underneath, with 46 left to play. Whereupon they boomeranged once more, going 27-15 earlier than getting swept of their last sequence of the season in Houston.

It added as much as a sub-.500 second half — however with a season-saving rebound in September. And if that seems like a blueprint for all of the groups on our Not So Good checklist, it’s as a result of it’s.

For each a kind of groups, September provides the chance to rediscover their first-half mojo. And the Diamondbacks leaned into that chance, then used the reminiscence of that rebound once more this season to gas their torrid restoration from a 25-32 begin.

“I believe our guys have a really excessive baseball IQ … and this innate perception,” Lovullo mentioned. “We used to hope we have been going to win video games. We have been so involved about what’s occurring throughout the sphere, within the different dugout. (However now) we consider in a lot of what’s occurring in our area that we all know we’re going to discover a option to get one thing finished each single night time.”

So what have we discovered from these rides on the baseball curler coaster? It’s as primary as a 3-and-2 fastball:

Wake me up earlier than September ends

If all of this feels acquainted to Dave Dombrowski, it’s as a result of he has seen this film earlier than. Heck, he lived this film — with the 2006 Tigers.

“It’s humorous. I used to be speaking to Jim Leyland (the supervisor of that Tigers staff) about 2006 only in the near past,” Dombrowski mentioned. “And we agreed that one of many widespread denominators was: It’s essential to have had a very good first half … to qualify for the postseason and nonetheless be beneath .500 within the second half.  So principally, it often means the expertise is there. And for some purpose, you’ve fallen off. So why?”

Why? Dombrowski believes there’s no extra necessary query for any staff to ponder. When a staff begins to slip, there may be nearly all the time multiple purpose. However the hazard signal he’s all the time looking out for is when a staff with a giant lead takes its foot off the accelerator.

“Generally,” he mentioned, “some individuals will change into considerably, I don’t know if that is the correct phrase, however content material. They’ll lose somewhat little bit of that additional fireplace. And regardless that that’s not good, what you have to do is rekindle that fireplace — to search out it once more so as to achieve success within the postseason.”

That’s precisely what occurred to that 2006 Tigers staff, he believes. So “the important thing to getting again on monitor,” he mentioned, “is the ‘why’ — and the way do you repair it?”

In 2006, Leyland delivered a message to his troops that September: Let’s get targeted. And over the previous couple of weeks, Dombrowski mentioned, his supervisor in Philly, Rob Thomson, has empowered the leaders in his clubhouse to sing that very same tune.

“It’s one thing they’ve talked about,” Dombrowski mentioned, “one thing they’ve labored on. And I believe they’ve already gotten that message throughout. I believe we’ve performed a lot better (not too long ago). And we actually wanted to get that again in gear.”

Is the baseball marathon a sequence of ebbs and flows? It all the time is. And generally these ebbs and flows even strike in September. However as October nears, Dombrowski has lengthy understood, the perfect groups comprehend it’s the power to play with focus and vitality daily that usually separates the champs from everybody else.

So in baseball, September isn’t foliage time. It’s focus time.

“It’s simply a kind of issues,” he mentioned, “the place you simply have to form of get it again. Whenever you win quite a lot of video games early, you set your self able the place you’ll be able to face up to that little lull.

“However you’re not going to win a championship,” Dombrowski mentioned, “in case you proceed to have that lull going into the postseason.”

(High picture of Phillies outfielder Brandon Marsh: Matt Krohn / Getty Photographs)