By Mark Leonard
BERLIN – As European leaders get up to the truth of Donald Trump’s impending return to the White Home, they need to take care to keep away from two huge traps: panic and denial. It received’t be straightforward, however the stakes are too excessive to fail.
The explanations for panic are apparent. Trump could also be unpredictable and mercurial, however there’s little doubt that his political instincts and said plans will shake the pillars of Europe’s safety, financial, and political order.
On safety, Europeans have each motive to concern that Trump’s proposed “peace plan” for Ukraine will deprive that nation of its territorial integrity and depart it demilitarized and completely excluded from NATO. And NATO itself could nicely go “dormant,” with America radically lowering its participation and handing duty for the alliance’s navy command and sources over to the Europeans.
Within the Center East, Europeans rightly fear that Trump’s plan to safe peace will imply supporting the expansionist plans of Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s extremist coalition, even perhaps together with the Palestinians’ expulsion from Gaza and the West Financial institution and their resettlement in Egypt and Jordan.
The financial situations are even scarier. Trump has talked about imposing a common import tariff of 10-20 %, and a 60 % tariff on items from China. Such a coverage dangers triggering a worldwide commerce warfare, with governments introducing retaliatory measures in opposition to the U.S. If China is shut out of the US market, Europeans might be much more weak to the availability results of its manufacturing overcapacity.
Making issues worse, Europe’s response to a different Trump presidency might be hampered by the “intolerant worldwide,” which incorporates Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.
For all these causes, European leaders are on the verge of panic and really feel tempted to hurry to Washington to chop bilateral offers – as many did throughout Trump’s first time period. In the event that they do, it should come straight on the expense of European unity.
However the second lure is simply as harmful. If European leaders fall into denial concerning the scale of the menace Trump poses, they won’t take the mandatory steps to construct resilience. Europeans have recognized for the previous 4 years that Trump may return, they usually have made some progress towards addressing their new geopolitical vulnerability with increased protection spending (collectively, Europeans now spend over 2 % of their GDP on protection) and diversification away from Russian gasoline. However general, they’ve been far too sluggish.
Some are buoyed by false confidence, telling themselves that in the event that they survived one Trump time period, they will survive one other. However the Trump of 2017-20 was an outsider who had been shocked by his personal election and craved institution recognition. This time, he’s lifeless set on revenge in opposition to the institution that thwarted him earlier than, and he has had loads of time to arrange for workplace. European leaders should take him at his phrase and brace themselves.
Confronted with these situations, essentially the most pressing process for European leaders is to make use of the 70-odd days between now and January 20, 2025, to agree on their widespread pursuits and work out methods to defend them – along with the U.S. if doable, however alone if obligatory. Meaning drafting a concrete plan to guard Europe from each safety and financial pressures.
Essentially the most instant concern is Ukraine. To stop a deal that leaves Ukraine demilitarized and shut out of NATO, Europe wants to make sure a gentle circulation of ammunition and air defenses within the quick time period, whereas offering Ukraine with credible long-term safety ensures. It additionally should determine methods to spend extra effectively on protection, improve the quantity of combat-ready forces out there to NATO and the European Union, and – if obligatory – strengthen its personal nuclear deterrence.
The second most difficult problem might be commerce. If Trump retains his promise of levying across-the-board import tariffs, a commerce warfare between the EU and its greatest export market is inevitable. In a world the place geopolitics and geoeconomics are more and more intertwined, the bloc ought to put together countermeasures in opposition to the U.S. and search to develop commerce with the remainder of the world.
Trump’s victory additionally fully modifications the context for the EU’s relationship with the UK. Because the Labour Get together took workplace in July, cross-channel contacts have elevated considerably. However now there must be an accelerated push to make an enormous, daring provide to the UK to create a brand new partnership.
For his half, U.Okay. Prime Minister Keir Starmer ought to decide to working towards a stronger and extra united Europe. He ought to put all the pieces on the desk, together with exploring how Britain’s nuclear deterrent can contribute to collective European safety. And he ought to present how the U.Okay. can assist prolong European energy and safety via cooperation on sanctions, expertise controls, provide chains, essential uncooked supplies, vitality safety, migration and joint motion in opposition to gangs and human traffickers, amongst different points.
To make that occur, the most important EU member states – France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain – might want to transcend their respective home politics to ascertain a pan-European consensus. German management – whether or not it comes from the present authorities or from a brand new Christian Democratic-led coalition after the spring elections – is extra necessary than ever, however the smaller, extra uncovered northern and jap European international locations may even have an necessary position to play. Accordingly, they need to kind a caucus throughout the EU to work with officers in Brussels to make “geopolitical Europe” right into a actuality.
Europe’s response to Trump’s return would require creativity, resilience and an unshakable dedication to defending its personal pursuits. Each disaster provides a possibility, and Europeans have an opportunity to craft a stronger, extra self-sufficient bloc that may rise up for itself in an age of worldwide dysfunction.
Mark Leonard, director of the European Council on International Relations, is the creator of “The Age of Unpeace: How Connectivity Causes Battle” (Bantam Press, 2021). This text was distributed by Mission Syndictae.
