Elon Musk embraces Donald Trump throughout a marketing campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on Oct. 5, 2024.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Pictures
Elon Musk’s relationship with Donald Trump has fueled expectations that he might soften the U.S. President-elect’s coverage stance towards Beijing, however consultants warning in opposition to placing an excessive amount of inventory into the Tesla CEO.
The billionaire was certainly one of Trump’s prime marketing campaign donors and will reportedly get a cupboard or advisory function on the White Home.
Within the lead-up to the elections, their relationship had piqued Beijing’s curiosity attributable to Musk’s shut ties to China, the place his firm, Tesla, runs an enormous “gigafactory.”
“There was widespread curiosity in China the previous few months about whether or not Musk could possibly be the brand new Kissinger, serving to dealer a deal between Washington and Beijing,” stated Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and Trustee Chair in Chinese language Enterprise & Economics on the Middle for Strategic and Worldwide Research.
“Whether or not that is an ingenious perception that may assist preserve relations from imploding or a part of an unrealistic soothing situation Chinese language wish to inform themselves is difficult to know at this level,” he added.
U.S. diplomat Henry Kissinger, who handed away final yr, is credited with normalizing relations between the U.S. and China, starting along with his first go to to Beijing in July 1971.
Kissinger was deeply revered in China and continued to satisfy with its leaders as an unofficial diplomat in efforts to advertise hotter relations between the 2 international locations. Simply months earlier than Kissinger died in November 2023, he met with Chinese language President Xi Jinping in Beijing in July 2023.
Hopes that Musk might fill the gap left by Kissinger have arisen as he more and more engages with high-ranking officers in China, the place he established Tesla because the nation’s first wholly foreign-owned automaker in 2018.
The Tesla and SpaceX CEO throughout his final go to in April met Chinese language Premier Li Qiang, who cited Tesla for instance of profitable commerce cooperation between Beijing and Washington, in line with state media.
Wang Yiwei, director of the institute of worldwide relations at Renmin College, instructed CNBC that Musk is seen as a enterprise one who understands each China and the U.S.
This might see him assist push for some flexibility with and even cancellation of the strict tariff hikes Trump has threatened to position on China-made merchandise, Wang stated. He hoped Musk’s work in manufacturing might allow a deal for Chinese language corporations to construct factories within the U.S.
Musk has voiced considerations over tensions between the 2 international locations and had criticized the Joe Biden administration when it raised tariffs on Chinese language EVs to 100% earlier this yr. The Biden administration has rolled out a raft of insurance policies geared toward bringing producers of high-end tech again to the U.S., lots of which Trump is predicted to uphold.
Businessman, not diplomat
With the intention to make an actual impression on U.S. coverage, one businessman, even the richest on the planet, won’t be sufficient to enhance relations the way in which Kissinger was as soon as in a position, stated Wang Huiyao, founding father of the Beijing-based suppose tank Middle for China and Globalization.
As a substitute, Wang stated {that a} group of outstanding enterprise and thought leaders, together with Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook dinner and Blackstone Group’s Stephen Schwarzman, can act as a “group of Kissingers.”
They might not attain the identical impression as Kissinger, given the extra complicated interval, he stated, although they may assist stabilize relations.
Cook dinner and Schwarzman additionally usually go to leaders in China, the place they’re typically highlighted by Beijing as examples of constructive China-U.S. enterprise and commerce relations.
Dewardric McNeal, Longview International managing director and senior coverage analyst, instructed CNBC, “Whereas it is true that China has often used influential People as unofficial channels, it is a stretch to view Musk as a modern-day Kissinger.”
For these “casual intermediaries,” the first obligation is to shareholders, to not nationwide pursuits, he stated, including that energetic political involvement can result in “conflicts of curiosity” and locations the enterprise leaders underneath intense scrutiny, if diplomacy fails.
Throughout Trump’s first time period, China had already tried to ascertain “again channels” with outstanding American businessmen, together with entrepreneur and actual property developer Steve Wynn, in hopes of influencing coverage, McNeal stated.
Such efforts appeared to have had little impact on Trump’s strategy to China and led to the Justice Division issuing a lawsuit that sought to register Wynn as a international agent over his alleged lobbying work on behalf of the Chinese language authorities.
This time round, Trump has introduced his intention to impose a blanket tariff starting from 10% to twenty% on all imports, together with further tariffs of 60% to 100% on merchandise imported from China.
“Musk would possibly open sure doorways, however none that hard-nosed dedicated diplomacy will not additionally open,” stated McNeal, including that pinning diplomatic hopes on such a determine, whose major allegiance is to his personal ventures, could possibly be a miscalculation.
“Musk’s unpredictability and powerful, generally controversial views do not essentially align with both nation’s diplomatic or strategic pursuits.”
