Shedding Wisconsin Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde has, to this point, refused to concede his loss to incumbent Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin.
Per week after Election Day, Hovde posted a five-minute video to his X account together with his ideas on the race.
“I imagine it’s higher to not remark till I’ve the information,” he mentioned within the video’s first few seconds. “Like a lot of my supporters, I used to be shocked by what unfolded on election evening.”
Hovde additionally mentioned that at 4 a.m. Milwaukee up to date its depend to incorporate roughly 108,000 absentee ballots and that Baldwin gained “almost 90% of these ballots.”
“Statistically, this end result appears unbelievable,” Hovde mentioned, “because it didn’t match the sample from same-day voting in Milwaukee, the place I acquired 22% of the vote.”
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Let’s see if Hovde is right.
Baldwin acquired 80.9% of absentee vote
Absentee ballots are only a portion of the whole votes in any election. However since Hovde is concentrated on absentee ballots, it’s pretty straightforward to see his declare is inaccurate by going to the town of Milwaukee’s election outcomes web page. It ought to be famous that some absentee voters selected third-party candidates for U.S. senate or skipped that race.
Milwaukee acquired 108,964 absentee ballots by Nov. 5, in keeping with the unofficial depend.
Of that group, Baldwin acquired 88,229 and Hovde acquired 17,699 absentee ballots.
So, Baldwin acquired 80.9% of the absentee vote and Hovde acquired 16.2% of it.
Clearly, Baldwin didn’t get “almost 90%” of the absentee poll vote.
As compared, Baldwin barely outperformed Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris who acquired 87,852 absentee votes, or 80.6%. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump outperformed Hovde by receiving 18,698 or 17.1%.
That sample occurred all through the state as Baldwin outperformed Harris and Hovde was not carried by Trump who ended up successful the state.
Hovde acquired 21.1% on Election Day
Hovde is claiming the absentee poll sample doesn’t match what he acquired on Election Day. So, let’s assessment what occurred in Milwaukee on Election Day.
On Election Day itself, there have been 140,043 votes solid in Milwaukee, in keeping with the unofficial depend. Of that quantity, Baldwin acquired 102,598 and Hovde acquired 29,574.
So, Baldwin pulled down 73.2% of the vote on Election Day in comparison with Hovde’s 21.1% of that vote. That’s not fairly 22%, as he mentioned, however it’s nearer than what he mentioned Baldwin’s absentee vote was.
Typically, the same-day vote is available in at a unique break up than absentee votes as a result of, historically, extra Republicans vote on Election Day than earlier. And Republicans this yr pushed for extra of their supporters to vote absentee.
And the vote being counted early Wednesday morning shouldn’t have shocked Hovde both.
Beneath Wisconsin legislation, absentee ballots can’t be processed earlier than 7 a.m. on Election Day. The Republican-controlled state Senate earlier this yr let a bipartisan invoice die that might have enabled clerks to start out processing absentee ballots the day earlier than the election and subsequently end counting all of the ballots at a extra affordable time on Election Day. And thus avoiding updating the outcomes at 4 a.m.
Our ruling
In suggesting there could also be irregularities with the vote depend, Hovde claimed Baldwin acquired “almost 90%” of the absentee poll vote within the metropolis of Milwaukee.
In accordance with the town’s outcomes on its web site, Baldwin acquired 80.9% of the vote, which isn’t “almost 90%.”
Our definition of False is “the assertion shouldn’t be correct.” That matches right here.
