China clearly looms massive over the U.S. presidential election in November. Each the Democratic ticket led by Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican one led by former President Donald Trump have emphasised the good energy rivalry all through their campaigns, albeit Harris to a lesser extent. Total, their approaches have some variations—and plenty of similarities.
Trump—and his working mate Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance, who has known as China “the most important menace” to the U.S.—have repeatedly provided a zero-sum view, through which the U.S. and China are at a crossroads and just one can come out on high. (Regardless of this, Trump additionally boasts of his nice relationship with Xi Jinping, saying he’d wish to “get together with China, however they’ve actually taken benefit of our nation.”)
In the meantime, Harris—who has equally promised to verify “America, not China, wins the competitors for the twenty first century,” a line she repeated on the ABC Information debate in September and Democratic conference in August—and her working mate Minn. Gov. Tim Walz, who has a historical past of engagement with the nation, have provided a extra diplomatic tone however, nonetheless, advocate for among the similar insurance policies to take care of the financial and safety challenges posed by an more and more assertive Beijing. Harris beforehand expressed in 2019 a willingness to cooperate with China on points like local weather change, whereas Biden Administration nationwide safety adviser Jake Sullivan not too long ago assured Chinese language leaders that she’s dedicated to “responsibly managing” bilateral ties.
Right here’s a breakdown of the 2 candidates’ information and rhetoric on China.
Tariffs for thee—but additionally for me
“Taxing” China has been a centerpiece of Trump’s coverage wishlist since even lengthy earlier than he ever introduced his 2016 marketing campaign for President. He touted tariffs as an answer to the U.S. nationwide debt and home financial development way back to throughout a 2010 interview with ABC’s George Stephanopolous, saying “it’s a must to create incentives to have the roles keep right here. You must create incentives to not purchase from China.”
Trump made his needs come true as President when he began a commerce battle with China in 2018, imposing tariffs on tons of of billions of {dollars} value of Chinese language items. Beijing responded with retaliatory tariffs till 2020, when the back-and-forth escalation was halted by a “Section One” commerce deal through which China agreed to buy $200 billion in U.S. items and companies by the tip of 2021. (China by no means fulfilled that promise.)
However by the point Trump left workplace, his insurance policies had blended outcomes: Whereas the bilateral commerce deficit with China fell from $419 billion in 2018 to $311 billion in 2020, the entire U.S. commerce deficit soared to $679 billion in 2020—the best it has been since 2008. The commerce battle has additionally been estimated to value wherever from 142,000 to 245,000 U.S. jobs.
Trump’s view has been that he didn’t go far sufficient. In his 2024 marketing campaign, he has proposed to additional increase tariffs on Chinese language imports to 60% or larger and to levy a “10-20%” tariff on all imports from abroad—a proposal that Harris has labeled a “nationwide gross sales tax,” reflecting economists’ issues in regards to the prices of tariffs being handed right down to U.S. customers.
“Trump doesn’t get the fundamentals. He thinks his tariffs are paid for by China. Any starting econ pupil at Iowa or Iowa State may let you know the American persons are paying his tariffs,” then-candidate Joe Biden mentioned in 2019. However the Biden-Harris Administration that got here into energy in 2021 has been removed from an advocate totally free commerce.
“I’m not a protectionist Democrat,” Harris declared throughout a 2020 Democratic presidential main debate. On the similar time, she added: “We now have to carry China accountable.” Within the years since, the latter half has appeared to take priority, as the present Administration has embraced protectionism—sustaining Trump’s tariffs on China and even including to them.
Whereas Trump’s allies, resembling these behind the controversial Undertaking 2025 conservative agenda, have proudly claimed “decoupling” from China as their purpose, the Biden-Harris Administration has mentioned that it prefers to pursue “de-risking.” However, in accordance to South China Morning Put up columnist Alex Lo, the brand new time period, very similar to Harris’ broader method to China, “simply sounds much less belligerent; the underlying hostility stays.”
Ultimately, the distinction between the 2 campaigns on financial competitors with China appears much less to do with path and extra to do with diploma.
Undertaking 2025 describes “unfettered commerce with China” as a “disaster” and the 2024 Republican Occasion platform pledges to “revoke China’s Most Favored Nation standing” (referring to its standing as a fellow member of the World Commerce Group, which suggests it can’t be singled out for much less advantageous commerce coverage) in addition to to “section out imports of important items, and cease China from shopping for American Actual Property and Industries.”
The Democratic Occasion platform, in the meantime, guarantees a “robust however good” method towards China, saying “We’ll make no apology in pushing again on unfair commerce practices that hurt American employees … however we don’t search battle.” The platform credit President Biden with taking “decisive motion to counter unfair financial practices by [China] and degree the enjoying area for American employees, strategically growing tariffs on a wide range of merchandise resembling metal and aluminum, semiconductors, electrical autos, batteries, crucial minerals, photo voltaic cells, ship-to-shore cranes, and medical merchandise.” And consultants have mentioned Harris is more likely to proceed Biden’s tariff insurance policies, whereas her marketing campaign has advised the media: “Vice President Harris will make use of focused and strategic tariffs to assist American employees, strengthen our financial system, and maintain our adversaries accountable.”
A key a part of each events’ platforms is how intertwined U.S. financial targets are with additionally holding China’s army at bay. Involved about Chinese language infiltration of crucial infrastructure within the U.S., Trump’s Agenda 47 guarantees to limit Chinese language possession of “power, know-how, telecommunications, farmland, pure assets, medical provides, and different strategic nationwide belongings,” whereas Vance launched a invoice in Congress in March geared toward limiting Chinese language entry to U.S. markets. The Democrats, for his or her half, have singled out semiconductor chips, expressing concern about overreliance on overseas manufacturing of them and limiting export of AI-related applied sciences to China to stifle Beijing’s army use of them.
World safety and Taiwan uncertainty
Trump has warned repeatedly that he thinks the U.S. is getting ready to “World Battle III,” and he has pointed to a China-led “axis of evil” (as he put it to Elon Musk final month) comprised of China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.
Trump has asserted that his “fierce” management fashion would fend off the onset of battle, although he has been criticized for seemingly displaying a transactional perspective towards the forms of alliances which can be constructed to discourage international battle.
With regard to China particularly, the Indo-Pacific area has emerged because the enjoying area that would flip right into a battleground ought to conflicts escalate over Taiwan’s sovereignty or territorial claims within the South China Sea—each points on which the U.S. has expressed assist for the perimeters opposing China’s aggression.
On the problem of the South China Sea, Trump’s marketing campaign hasn’t mentioned a lot, although consultants have mentioned a second Trump administration is unlikely to vary American technique that has continued via management by totally different events.
On Taiwan, nevertheless, the Republican ticket itself appears cut up.
Though the Trump administration had delivered constant army assist to Taiwan and deepened bilateral ties, Trump mentioned in an interview with Bloomberg Businessweek in June that due to Taiwan’s dominance of the pc chip trade, the self-governing island “ought to pay” Washington for protection.
When requested by TIME earlier this yr if the U.S. ought to defend Taiwan if China invades, Trump leaned into the longstanding U.S. coverage of strategic ambiguity. “I’ve been requested this query many instances and I all the time refuse to reply it as a result of I don’t wish to reveal my playing cards,” he mentioned, echoing how he’s beforehand responded to such a hypothetical. “I wouldn’t wish to give away any negotiating skills by giving data like that to any reporter.”
Trump’s working mate Vance, then again, has instructed that the U.S. ought to take a extra proactive function in Taiwan’s protection. Talking to the New York Occasions in June, he mentioned: “We should always make it as laborious as attainable for China to take Taiwan within the first place.”
And in an interview with Fox Information in April, Vance instructed that the U.S. ought to prioritize preparedness for army battle with China over investing in continued involvement in different overseas conflicts to do with Gaza or Russia: “America is stretched too skinny. We would not have the economic capability to assist a battle in Ukraine, a battle in Israel, doubtlessly a battle in East Asia if the Chinese language invade Taiwan, so America has to select and select,” he mentioned. “The Chinese language are centered on actual energy. They’re not centered on how robust individuals discuss on TV or how sturdy our alleged resolve is. They’re centered on how sturdy we truly are, and to be sturdy sufficient to push again in opposition to the Chinese language, we’ve obtained to focus there.”
The U.S. method to Taiwan beneath a possible Harris presidency seems extra clear. The 2024 Democratic Occasion platform pledged that Biden, who was the candidate on the time it was drafted, “will stay steadfast in America’s dedication to peace and stability throughout the Taiwan Strait,” and Harris is anticipated to proceed that dedication, as her remarks on the problem have indicated.
Harris, whereas in Japan to fulfill with Japanese, South Korean, and Australian allies in September 2022—shortly after Beijing responded with army drills to a Taiwan go to by then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi—mentioned that “peace and stability within the Taiwan Strait is a vital characteristic of a free and open Indo-Pacific” and that Washington “will proceed to deepen our unofficial ties” with Taipei and “will proceed to assist Taiwan’s self-defense, in step with our longstanding coverage.” The Wall Road Journal reported on the time that, throughout her conferences with overseas leaders on that journey, Harris introduced up Taiwan in each dialogue.
Human rights: to be or to not be (a precedence)
Each Trump and Harris have condemned human rights violations dedicated by Chinese language authorities, most notably in opposition to the Uyghur ethnic minority in Xinjiang and pro-democracy figures in Hong Kong. In 2019 and 2020, Harris co-sponsored payments geared toward sanctioning these accused of human rights abuses in Hong Kong and Xinjiang—each of which had been subsequently signed into regulation by Trump.
However whereas Harris and her working mate Walz have constantly known as for human rights protections in China, Trump has at instances proven reticence about exerting an excessive amount of strain on Beijing over human rights issues when, for him and his working mate Vance, resolving financial points seem like extra of a precedence.
When requested in a 2020 Axios interview why he had not enacted sure sanctions concentrating on Chinese language officers for the abuses in Xinjiang, Trump instructed that the sanctions may derail financial negotiations, saying that they had been “in the course of a serious commerce deal” and that the tariffs he placed on China “are far worse than any sanction you possibly can consider.” (Vance has additionally complained of China being “keen to make use of slaves to make issues,” seemingly referring to compelled labor in Xinjiang, although he solely introduced it up as justification for commerce coverage.)
And whereas President Trump made public remarks denouncing “China’s invasive state safety equipment” tightening over the “free society” of Hong Kong, his former nationwide safety advisor John Bolton recalled in a 2020 memoir that Trump had mentioned he didn’t wish to “become involved” when widespread protests broke out in Hong Kong. Bolton additionally claimed that Trump had inspired Xi to go forward with constructing Uyghur internment camps in Xinjiang.
Harris and Walz are identified to be vocal supporters for Hong Kong’s pro-democracy motion. Walz has been praised by activists in Hong Kong for his persistence when he was a congressman in championing an earlier model of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act when it had struggled with assist in Washington. Harris, equally, has been a constant advocate for Uyghurs and different oppressed ethnic minorities in China, co-writing a letter when she was a senator in 2020 to Trump’s then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to induce “accountability and justice” for what she described as China’s “genocidal marketing campaign.”
Throughout her 2020 presidential marketing campaign, Harris advised the Council on International Relations that “China’s abysmal human rights report should characteristic prominently in our coverage towards the nation.” She added that Trump “constantly turned a blind eye to those abuses in hopes of incomes a ‘win’ in his commerce battle,” whereas her potential administration received’t “enable human rights abuses to go unchecked.”
