When speaking a couple of 19-year-old rookie like Matvei Michkov, somebody who remains to be unaccustomed to North American tradition, it is smart why some could be conservative in projecting his numbers. However this Philadelphia Flyers prospect just isn’t an bizarre participant. He has the upside to blow even his extra optimistic level projections for 2024-25 out of the water.
Michkov’s Profession Numbers
Usually, a great way to research high prospects is by their level manufacturing—elite gamers have a tendency to seek out their approach out on high, even when they’re extra defensively oriented. For his entire profession, Michkov has crushed the competitors, at all times proving to be prepared for that subsequent step.
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Michkov’s final stint in junior hockey was in 2021-22, a yr earlier than he grew to become draft-eligible (D-1). Taking part in in Russia’s Junior Hockey League (MHL), he ranked first amongst forwards in factors per sport (P/G) with 51 factors in 28 contests. Regardless that the league has 20-year-old individuals, he rose above all of them.
In his first yr of draft eligibility (DY), the subsequent logical step for Michkov was the Supreme Hockey League (VHL). It’s an expert league principally consisting of gamers of their early to mid-20s, however not the perfect on the market. Scoring 10 objectives and 14 factors in 12 video games, Michkov ranked second amongst forwards with not less than 10 matches performed in P/G—he put up historic numbers.
As if the VHL was youngster’s play to him, Michkov rejoined the Kontinental Hockey League (KHL) the place he compiled 5 factors in 13 video games in his D-1 marketing campaign. He had 20 factors in 30 contests in 2022-23, placing him within the 89th percentile for P/G amongst forwards with 10 video games performed (for future reference, these are the necessities for the percentiles). This was the very best P/G complete put up in a DY within the historical past of the KHL.
Final season, Michkov furthered his manufacturing with 41 factors in 48 video games within the KHL, placing him within the 96th percentile with 0.85 P/G. This was the very best complete ever put up in a season after being drafted (D+1), edging out gamers corresponding to Evgeny Kuznetsov, Kirill Kaprizov, Vladimir Tarasenko, and different future stars. It’s necessary to acknowledge that Michkov performed a good chunk of ice time, however he was enjoying quite a bit for a cause—he was objectively the perfect teenage KHL participant in historical past.
Now, we arrive at Michkov’s second season after being drafted (D+2). Whereas there aren’t many nice comparisons on the market since KHLers hardly ever put up his numbers, there are a number of stars to have a look at to probably challenge what he would possibly do within the NHL.
How Equally Dominant Prospects Carried out in Their D+2 NHL Seasons
4 present stars who have been within the 99th percentile for P/G in a league throughout their D-1 and DY seasons, identical to Michkov, are Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, Jack Eichel, and Jack Hughes. That’s dishonest somewhat bit since Michkov performed most of his time within the KHL (and I’m utilizing the VHL for his DY), however these athletes competed in opposition to these their age—it’s an obstacle to the star Russian prospect.
These 4 completed within the 99th, 99th, 97th, and 68th percentiles for NHL P/G scoring of their D+2 campaigns respectively—that averages out to the 91st percentile. If we go off of this unscientific projection, that may place Michkov at round 75 factors over the course of 82 video games in 2024-25. After all, he’s not on the extent of McDavid or Crosby and might be nearer to somebody like Eichel or Hughes. Nonetheless, that’s promising already.
Elias Pettersson of the Vancouver Canucks had comparable totals if we have a look at percentiles. In HockeyAllsvenskan, an expert league in Sweden however not the perfect (so, considerably corresponding to the VHL), he was within the 97th percentile in P/G throughout his DY. Taken fifth total in 2017 by Vancouver, he lived as much as that hype in his D+1 season by ending within the 99th percentile for Swedish Hockey League (SHL) P/G—that is the highest league in Sweden and kind of on par with the KHL.
Michkov at this stage is a greater prospect than Pettersson was for my cash, as the previous was sick with pneumonia but had celebrity monitoring numbers. Seeing as Michkov has unbelievable offensive upside, it’s inspiring to see that Pettersson completed his D+2 NHL marketing campaign within the 91st percentile in P/G, profitable the Calder Trophy within the course of.
Adjusting to the NHL Shouldn’t Be a Large Downside for Michkov
Even with these examples, it’s truthful to fret about how Michkov will translate to the NHL stage. Once more, he’s performed hockey virtually solely in Russia and remains to be simply a teen. Nevertheless, there are a number of causes to really feel higher about how this tradition shift would possibly play out.
For starters, Michkov has been enjoying skilled hockey for years now. Since 2021-22, he has 103 contests performed throughout the VHL and KHL—that’s a good chunk of time. Connor Bedard, a member of Michkov’s draft class who went first total, didn’t have a single sport {of professional} hockey below his belt till he debuted within the NHL in 2023-24. He scored 61 factors in 68 contests, ending within the 89th percentile for P/G—it was a seamless transition, not less than offensively. Whereas it’s not the case for everybody, the highest gamers normally excel reasonably rapidly.
If there’s fear concerning the cultural issue, we simply talked about Pettersson—he performed solely in Sweden. The truth that Michkov barely speaks English is an comprehensible concern, however former Calder Trophy winners Artemi Panarin (2015-16) and Kaprizov (2020-21) didn’t both. The 2 went from the 99th percentile in KHL P/G to the 98th and 94th in NHL P/G respectively as if the language issue meant nothing.
Even with the numbers and rationale I offered, I’m not claiming that Michkov will win the Calder Trophy and rating 75 factors (or extra) in 2024-25. However what I’m saying is that he most actually has the potential to realize these items this season so long as he’s given the chance to. There is perhaps some struggles alongside the way in which, however his expertise is so grand that it won’t matter—it is a very particular participant.
Stats courtesy of QuantHockey
