Gold is buying and selling like bitcoin now, however a complete flows-based strategy does not corroborate the final leg of this rally, TDS’ Senior Commodity Strategist Daniel Ghali notes.
Draw back momentum more likely to speed up under $2580
“The momentum break skilled on election day usually marks the top of such strikes. But when that’s the case, what can we anticipate from right here? The melt-up has created a notable margin of security for macro fund positions, which now maintain important paper earnings on their extraordinarily bloated size. Giant scale promoting exercise from CTAs will solely kick off under $2580/oz.”
“Given draw back momentum is just more likely to speed up under this threshold, different cohorts should do the heavy lifting. General, this implies essentially the most susceptible cohorts are ETF holders, given their latest inflows and Shanghai merchants, who’re nonetheless holding onto their near-record size.”
“Remember how important TINA has been for this cohort — the final weeks have seen important promoting exercise in Shanghai concurrently with enhancing Chinese language sentiment. Silver, then again, is extra susceptible to CTA promoting exercise in a continued downtape, however even a flat tape will doubtless lead pattern following algos to reaccumulate their just lately shed size.”
