The annual race to the underside of the NFL has a number of individuals this season — 11 groups are at three wins or fewer heading into Week 11.
Not like final yr, there isn’t a consensus pot of gold on the different finish of the failure rainbow. There are elite gamers within the 2025 NFL Draft class, to make certain, however none of them play the positions we usually see go No. 1. There isn’t a no-doubt QB; the OT class is skinny; the sting group could be very uncooked.
With that in thoughts, let’s check out the groups main the race for the No. 1 general decide and see what makes essentially the most sense for every of them. Utilizing The Athletic’s NFL projections mannequin, listed below are the eight groups likeliest to land atop the draft:
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Projected document: 5-12
Don’t rule out Georgia’s Mykel Williams pushing himself previous Carter and into the highest edge spot earlier than this season’s over — The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Carter ranked because the No. 3 prospect and Williams No. 8 on his up to date 2025 Huge Board. Nonetheless, because it stands now, I’d in all probability go along with Micah Parsons’ understudy in Glad Valley.
The Panthers don’t want to pick one other quarterback with that prime decide — ought to they declare it — as a result of they simply did that in 2023. Carolina ought to work to proceed growing Bryce Younger and his offensive line whereas discovering methods so as to add usable talent expertise.
Defensively, Carolina has to discover a tradition. That’s laborious to do with none impression gamers. There aren’t too many no-doubters defensively this yr exterior of Travis Hunter, however Carter’s a complete freak, very younger (age 20) and could possibly be a pillar right here.
Projected document: 5-12
You don’t have any concept how badly I needed to jot down down Malaki Starks title right here. New England wants a security, and Starks is among the greatest prospects we’ve seen at that place in a very long time. He can also play nook and is palms down the neatest defender on this class. He would change New England’s protection in a single day. All that mentioned, the Patriots would even have to elucidate drafting a security No. 1 general.
Campbell, as the most effective OT on this class, would require much less justification. (He additionally is perhaps a succesful guard on the subsequent degree, relying on match and state of affairs.) This isn’t an elite sort out class, however New England may use assist in entrance of Drake Maye.
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Projected document: 5-12
It’s nonetheless a back-and-forth factor, for me, proper now between Cam Ward and Sanders as QB1 (Brugler’s board has it ranked Ward, Jalen Milroe, Sanders). In such an unsure QB class, there’s no telling the way it will finally play out, however Ward and Sanders have been steadily higher than the remainder of the crop this yr. Ward has a greater bodily body, however Sanders is nearer to being prepared for motion proper now — as long as your staff may help him.
Allow them to know 2️⃣@ShedeurSanders x #LEGENDARY
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— Colorado Buffaloes Soccer (@CUBuffsFootball) November 9, 2024
A present professional comp for Sanders is perhaps a extra athletic model of Bo Nix. Nix actually has taken his lumps in Denver, however he’s a really good processor with good quarterbacking instincts. Sanders could be very a lot in that area, solely with a greater arm and extra spectacular motion abilities.
Having a bridge QB on the roster with Sanders can be supreme. But when the Raiders can encompass him with a good infrastructure, he may shock everybody as a rookie.
Projected document: 5-12
I’m not even going to present the Browns another choice, as a result of they’d want to maneuver this decide — even when they will’t land an all-time haul and simply drop down a spot or two. The Browns have too many wants in too many areas, plus they’re in a completely hellacious state of affairs with Deshaun Watson. They can’t add a QB at No. 1 in April, and Campbell is the one OT on this class price interested by that prime.
Cleveland is again within the first spherical for the primary time because the disastrous Watson commerce. Somewhat than instantly placing themselves again behind the eight ball, the Browns ought to discover a approach to money a (hypothetical) No. 1 decide in for extra capital.
Projected document: 5-12
It doesn’t seem like Will Levis is the reply to anybody’s prayers, however he’s nonetheless solely 25 years outdated and on an affordable contract. The Titans are in a bizarre spot, although, and it’d worsen earlier than it will get higher.
A preferable choice to going QB at No. 1: discovering a good veteran to compete with Levis whereas Tennessee builds out the remainder of its roster. I’d like to say “draft Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan,” however Tennessee probably wants greater than only a WR from a possible prime spot.
Hunter, nonetheless, is “greater than only a large receiver.”
The Titans are one of many worst groups in soccer. In addition they began the yr with an older roster, on common, than the Lions, Eagles, Packers and Chiefs. Sort out may be a selection right here, however — once more — this won’t be the suitable class to handle that spot.
Projected document: 5-12
I’m solely going to do that below the situation the Giants signal a bridge quarterback and let Ward sit and be taught for a yr. I’d say the identical if Sanders had been the match right here. (Might Daniel Jones serve that function?)
The Giants, fairly frankly, will not be a quarterback away from being saved. I’m afraid in the event that they choose Ward or Sanders within the prime 5, they’ll wind up in two years the place the Panthers and Colts are actually: cold-sweat panicking about why their rookie hasn’t saved them by himself. No quarterback on this class is able to strapping a staff on his again and carrying it subsequent yr. If anybody’s hoping for that end result, they’ll earn what they get.
All that mentioned, Ward has improved yearly he’s performed — and has jumped up in competitors ranges a number of instances.
There’s no method I’d draft a QB No. 1 this yr, however I’m not answerable for a QB-desperate franchise that’s working out of selections.
Projected document: 5-12
We’ll see how issues go (and, clearly, this job continues to be stuffed for the second), however the Jaguars get my pre-vote for greatest opening of the approaching 2025 NFL teaching cycle. That’s not simply because the brand new coach would get Trevor Lawrence. There’s additionally a good quantity of younger expertise to work with on this roster, and the Jaguars at present have essentially the most 2025 draft capital within the league.
Regardless that the 2025 draft class doesn’t look elite by any measure, it’s greater than sufficient for the Jaguars — an aimless group that’s higher than its document — to show their fortunes.
Hunter, the most effective school participant in America, may assist lastly give Lawrence an actual weapon and/or set up the Jaguars’ defensive tradition. It’s a win-win. Simple match.
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Projected document: 6-11
Discuss a staff with out a tradition — what even are the Saints? Proper now, they’re a staff with an overpriced, low- to mid-tier beginning quarterback surrounded by getting old gamers from a bygone period. They’re additionally about to be beginning over, once more. Whatever the path this franchise takes with its coach (and maybe its GM), New Orleans has to get higher over the ball, on either side of the road.
Graham’s capability to manage the center of a defensive entrance in a number of other ways from completely different spots offers off slight reminders of a youthful (albeit higher) Ndamukong Suh.
Graham’s motor is relentless, his grip energy may crush an apple, and his agility numbers at 320 kilos might be elite come analysis time. Graham simply may’ve been the man in highschool voted “Most Prone to Wrestle an Precise Bear.”
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; Images of Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders and Abdul Carter: Doug Murray, Julio Aguilar, Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire through Getty Photos)