The 2024 presidential election could also be one of many closest in trendy U.S. historical past, so it ought to come as no shock that each Kamala Harris and Donald Trump want to acquire the eye and help of a multigenerational Central and East European citizens—particularly People of Polish descent dwelling in Rust Belt swing states.
The Democrats have been first to deal with Polish People when Harris challenged Trump throughout their September debate to elucidate to 800,000 Polish American voters in Pennsylvania what his place can be within the occasion that Russia’s battle in Ukraine expands into international locations like Poland. Democrats adopted up with an organizing name that highlighted, “If Trump returns to energy, he’ll promote out Ukraine and put the remainder of Europe, beginning with Poland, in danger.”
However Trump is making a comeback that might value Harris votes in a number of battleground counties. In mid-October, he known as to inform attendees gathered on the eightieth anniversary occasion of the Polish American Congress (PAC) that Poles are brave individuals and “Poland will all the time be protected so long as I’m president, that I can let you know. And Russia by no means would have invaded Ukraine if I used to be president.” He’s additionally interesting to necessary conservative values, saying that he’ll defend God, faith, household, and freedom from Harris insurance policies that his marketing campaign is billing as “socialist” or “communist.”
Merely alleging that Trump would abandon Poland and Ukraine, as Harris has argued, won’t be sufficient. So as to persuade voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania, she wants to deal with a number of of the Biden administration’s flawed insurance policies, which have value 1000’s of Ukrainian lives, and supply a compelling case that she’s going to act in another way.
Michigan’s Macomb County, north of Detroit, has lengthy been seen as a barometer of U.S. elections attributable to its traditionally white working-class inhabitants with sturdy union membership stemming from the world’s ties to the auto business. Primarily based on 2023 estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Group Survey, 113,181 individuals dwelling within the county declare Polish heritage, which is about 15 % of Michigan’s complete Polish inhabitants; some even nonetheless converse Polish at house. In November 2020, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden in Macomb by 39,911 votes, however misplaced Michigan by 154,188 votes.
By specializing in international coverage and safety points with these voters, Democrats want to shift consideration away from key home points, together with the financial system and immigration, in addition to controversial progressive insurance policies like abortion rights—a sound technique given a number of findings from a current research on Polish People.
In keeping with a 2020 survey from the Piast Institute, extra Polish People establish as conservative than liberal; they overwhelmingly state that faith is necessary of their lives (most are Roman Catholic); and a majority of them are in favor of abortion however solely below sure circumstances. This voter profile could seem good for Trump, who, in 2016, carried the Polish American citizens in locations like Macomb County. However the identical survey confirmed that for 72 % of respondents, U.S. involvement in NATO is both extraordinarily or essential. Which means the vote in counties like Macomb could also be determined much less by home points than by foreign-policy ones—and Democrats should press their benefit in the event that they don’t wish to lose this key demographic.
Each Republicans and Democrats know what messages resonate with Polish American voters based mostly on initiatives that mobilized the neighborhood previously. For Polish People, World Struggle I marked their arrival on the electoral scene, once they lobbied the Woodrow Wilson administration for the pursuits of their ancestral homeland. Throughout World Struggle II, they shifted their focus from humanitarian aid efforts to political lobbying below the auspices of huge umbrella organizations such because the PAC, which was created in 1944. The PAC turned an advocate of Polish battle refugees. The Displaced Individuals Act of 1948 resulted within the admission of 395,000 immigrants to america, of which greater than 200,000 have been Poles. Of those, round 38,000 settled in Michigan, together with in areas in Macomb County.
These émigrés introduced with them a deep mistrust of communists and a hatred for the Soviet Union and Russian imperialism. The GOP painted Democrats because the “occasion of Yalta,” and Dwight D. Eisenhower lured them by promising a coverage of liberation and rollback—checking Soviet affect and communism in Europe. To their dismay, the subsequent few a long time have been marked by containment and detente.
Polish American votes helped Jimmy Carter when the Georgia governor snatched the East European ethnic narrative from President Gerald Ford throughout their 1976 debate, following Ford’s gaffe, which contributed to the Democrats securing the White Home. “There isn’t any Soviet domination of Japanese Europe,” Ford stated through the debate. “I don’t consider that the Poles contemplate themselves to be dominated by the Soviet Union.” Though most Poles voted for Nixon in 1972, they switched to Carter by a 60-40 margin. Key states with Polish American populations flipped from purple to blue by small margins—0.2 % in Ohio, 1.6 % in Wisconsin, and a couple of.6 % in Pennsylvania. Later, many of those immigrants turned Reagan Democrats.
Immediately, over 8.2 million individuals in america declare Polish ancestry. Whereas election evaluation tends, at instances, to not separate some voter classes (together with “white”), how white ethnic teams vote is usually key. Though the Polish American neighborhood isn’t as cohesive because it was previously, its energy shouldn’t be underestimated as merely being a mirage.
In keeping with American Group Survey estimates, the biggest concentrations of Polish People are in Illinois (761,948) and New York (740,795), however there are nearly as many in Michigan (720,372), Pennsylvania (695,604), and Wisconsin (441,057). Whereas Illinois and New York aren’t swing states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin are up for grabs. All 3 have been received by margins considerably smaller than the ethnic Polish inhabitants lately. If the Democratic Celebration needs to win in November, it can not neglect the white ethnic vote.
Harris was first to focus on the Polish People and bought off to a very good begin. She referenced the risk from Russia as she appealed to the Polish People voters in Pennsylvania through the debate, then, an excellent PAC-funded spot referenced the trumpeter of Krakow and invaders from the east, with a headline that learn: “Putin & Trump: Menace to Freedom.” For a while, it appeared that the Trump marketing campaign could have missed its probability to grab the Central and East European narrative and acquire their favor.
The previous president was scheduled to go to the Nationwide Shrine of Our Woman of Czestochowa, the place Ronald Reagan stopped throughout his 1984 marketing campaign. After Trump didn’t seem on the September occasion, it was advised that he canceled his go to to as a substitute meet with Qatari leaders at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. In Bucks County, Pennsylvania, the place the shrine is situated, Trump misplaced to Biden in 2020 by a small marging of 17,345 votes (4.37 %), whereas the distinction within the state total was simply 1.17 %.
Though Trump missed a possibility to seem earlier than these Polish American constituents, in October—which occurs to be Polish American Heritage Month in america—he has been making up misplaced floor. In his greeting to Polish People on the event of the Pulaski Day Parade, Trump said, “We love the Polish individuals, and there’s no person higher. They’re nice, they’re sturdy, they’re good.”
He additionally gave an interview to a conservative tv station in Poland, which enumerated the achievements of his final time period, together with being robust on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, growing the variety of U.S. troops stationed in Poland, serving to Poland diversify its vitality with American LNG, and forcing NATO international locations to spend extra on protection. The previous president repeated that Putin wouldn’t have initiated the full-scale invasion of Ukraine if he was within the White Home and that the battle “threatens Poland as a result of because the expression goes, ‘You’re subsequent.’ You possibly can’t have that.”
To many Polish People, this can be a strong observe file, and it has left many doubting whether or not Trump would actually abandon Ukraine if elected in November. In an interview for the Washington Put up, Trump said that he’ll give Ukraine extra help than they’ve ever acquired if Putin doesn’t conform to a peace deal. Even the international minister of Poland’s present liberal authorities identified that earlier than the invasion started, Trump offered Ukraine with Javelin missiles which may have saved Kyiv. This was a coverage that the Obama administration opposed.
So the place does this go away Kamala Harris? As she struggles with convincing Arab American voters, who’ve deserted the Democrats attributable to Biden administration’s Gaza coverage, in states like Michigan, outreach to Polish People may counterbalance this loss.
Nevertheless, if marketing campaign strategists wish to win the Polish American vote, they should present a plan for lasting peace in Japanese Europe, which is able to solely occur if Russia is severely exhausted economically and militarily. Which means the vice chairman has to transcend criticizing Trump and have a look at her administration’s errors.
The Biden staff was gradual to offer Ukraine with crucial navy help, akin to ATACMS long-range missiles, F-16 fighter jets, M1 Abrams tanks, Patriot missile protection methods, Grey Eagle and Reaper drones, and cluster munitions. The administration’s method could be greatest described as not letting Ukraine lose but additionally not giving it sufficient to win.
Whereas Russia systematically destroyed civilian targets, together with youngsters’s hospitals, the Biden administration denied Kyiv’s requests to make use of U.S.-made long-range missiles to strike navy infrastructure in Russia. The White Home has additionally been gradual on the difficulty of transferring frozen Russian property to Ukraine, which may have been used for reconstruction and battle efforts.
It’s true that Biden saved Ukraine afloat, however now Harris must transcend insurance policies of harm management. She’s began by saying that, below her watch, no peace talks can be dealt with with out Ukraine on the desk. Whereas offering extra navy help could also be difficult, sustaining sanctions and levying further ones would proceed to boost Russia’s battle prices. Harris additionally must make it clear that Putin apologists like Tucker Carlson or isolationists like Tulsi Gabbard could affect Trump administration coverage choices, particularly with regards to future relations with Russia and European companions.
Whereas Trump focuses on the previous and repeats that the invasion wouldn’t have began on his watch, Harris must concentrate on the longer term by saying how america will assist Ukraine finish the battle on phrases acceptable to its individuals. If Harris needs Polish People who query her positions on necessary on a regular basis points like the financial system and abortion to concentrate on international coverage and elect her as a substitute of Trump, then she must current a transparent imaginative and prescient for Ukraine’s victory that can preserve Poland from changing into the subsequent goal on Russia’s checklist.
