Will the Tampa Bay Lightning be higher this season than the group they had been once they misplaced to the Florida Panthers in Spherical One? Fellow author Harrison Smajovits and I are again to debate the reply, and, inevitably, we are going to sort out the numerous modifications to the Lightning roster which have taken place this summer season.
Allow us to set the stage earlier than we ring the metaphorical struggle bell: Steven Stamkos signed with the Nashville Predators. Ryan McDonagh returned to Tampa Bay from Nashville. Mikhail Sergachev was traded to the Utah Hockey Membership for Conor Geekie and J.J. Moser. Cam Atkinson and Zemgus Girgensons signed with the Lightning. Oh, and Julien BriseBois signed Jake Guentzel, probably the greatest free brokers available on the market, to a seven-year contract.
Evidently, the opening-night roster will look considerably completely different from 2023-24. However does “completely different” imply higher? That’s what we’re right here to debate.
Harrison Smajovits – Sure
This won’t be what followers need to hear. They’ve some extent. When a franchise participant leaves, it’s onerous to imagine the group improved. However the actuality is the Lightning’s roster shuffle has upped their fortunes for the longer term.
With the acquisition of Guentzel, they add a longer-term possibility to switch Stamkos’ manufacturing. Final season, he averaged 1.15 factors per sport, one of the best of his profession. He solely improved when he joined a a lot better Carolina Hurricanes group with 1.47 factors per sport. Think about what he can do taking part in on the identical line as Nikita Kucherov.
The Lightning made the fitting transfer to deliver again McDonagh. He nonetheless has lots left within the tank, and his absence has been felt on the a lot thinner protection since he was traded to the Predators in 2022. He additionally brings management. In spite of everything, he used to put on an “A” for the Lightning. Dropping Stamkos’ management is a official concern, however at the least they added a well-known chief.
Sure, it’s not nice so as to add McDonagh and lose Sergachev, and Moser gained’t totally exchange his offensive manufacturing. However the defensive manufacturing will probably be there. Moser has proven he can block over 120 pictures a season and isn’t afraid to be bodily with 99 hits. There’s all the time the possibility he’ll take a step ahead in his growth, giving the group a powerful defenseman at a less expensive cap hit.
The Lightning have additionally improved their prospects. They acquired Conor Geekie from Utah within the Sergachev commerce, including a key constructing block who may make an impression as quickly as this season. This may be the season when ahead Gage Goncalves shines. He was an American Hockey League (AHL) All-Star final season and is able to transfer as much as the best degree.
Additionally, let’s be actual. Numerous this season is contingent on how effectively goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy performs. Issues may need turned out higher final season if he hadn’t been a couple of months faraway from again surgical procedure. This season will probably be no completely different. Nonetheless, administration addressed its defensive points whereas filling a niche in offensive manufacturing. They’ve additionally added items for the longer term. I’d say the Lightning are very a lot a playoff group and are higher positioned to win extra Cups sooner or later.
Nick Haydon – No
Nicely mentioned, Harrison. Now, I’ve the unenviable place of arguing why the group will probably be worse. I’m not enthusiastic about it as a result of, like Fox Mulder says, “I need to imagine.”
Guentzel is a official alternative for Stamkos’ offensive manufacturing. Heck, he may even be an enchancment. Nonetheless, the outlet Stamkos leaves within the locker room and throughout the group is irreplaceable. The ripple results will probably be felt on and off the ice, and I fear the group won’t be able to regulate in time to be a severe contender.
If I’ll, here’s a situation that illustrates this: Kucherov receives the puck in his workplace on the ability play, seems to be as much as make the seam cross to Stamkos for his patented one-timer, and, alas, he sees Guentzel in a distinct place as a result of he’s a left-handed shot. Kucherov hesitates for a cut up second, and the ability play is disrupted. That will appear excessive. The group will, after all, apply relentlessly to make sure these errors is not going to occur. Video games, although, are completely different, and I’m not certain such a seismic shift could be ironed out swiftly sufficient.
Associated: Lightning’s Busy Offseason Bolsters Organizational Depth
Extra virtually, Guentzel’s arrival does little to deal with the shortage of offensive depth that hamstrung the group. Solely 5 gamers had greater than 50 factors final season, and a type of (Victor Hedman) was a defenseman. Swap Guentzel for Stamkos, and we nonetheless have 4 forwards with greater than 50 factors.
Including McDonagh felt proper, however, once more, virtually talking, it didn’t change a lot, notably with the departure of Sergachev. He’ll assist fill the management vacuum left by Stamkos, however defensively, he doesn’t reinforce the core as a lot as fill in for Sergachev. Certain, he’s higher defensively, however his presence alone can not shore up that leaky again finish. Moser, as Harrison identified, has the potential to be an actual difference-maker.
What we will agree on is that Vasilevskiy will decide the trajectory of this season. If he regains kind, the Lightning could have many extra alternatives to win. General, although, the group in entrance of him seems to be and feels remarkably unchanged.
Smajovits
I need to say I respect the hypothetical scenario you led off with. Not having Stamkos arrange for the one-timer will change issues a bit. Nonetheless, if Kucherov can’t make the adjustment, that will probably be a significant drawback. In idea, albeit a middle, Brayden Level may attempt to fill the function as he’s additionally a right-handed shot. He doesn’t have the identical slapshot as Stamkos, and the entire setup is completely different with one right-handed shot as a substitute of two, however Level ranked ninth within the NHL in objectives final season and had 31 objectives assisted by Kucherov in 2023-24. They need to be capable of determine one thing out.
Kucherov additionally has expertise with different left-wingers corresponding to Brandon Hagel and Anthony Duclair. He’s not void of expertise with these conditions. However, for enjoyable, let’s get inventive. Guenztel doesn’t take loads of face-offs — solely 23 final season. However they might take the chance and, occasionally, swap Level and Guentzel. Guentzel wins the face-off and instantly flips it to Kucherov to arrange Level for a aim. Increase.
As for protection, they aren’t as sturdy in comparison with earlier years. That’s the reason they introduced again McDonagh, and dropping Sergachev’s offensive manufacturing will probably be felt. However with the choices coming from trades and people being developed within the minors, the Lightning may be capable of overcome it. Have a look at who they’ve been capable of develop out of what appears like skinny air.
Nick Perbix and Darren Raddysh come to thoughts. Am I saying they’re pretty much as good as Sergachev? Completely not. However what I’m getting at is the Lightning can discover the depth, even when slowly however certainly. Don’t neglect Dylan Carlile is developing the pipeline and may make an impression this season. Gamers like him will help deliver a contemporary identification to the roster. However, as we each agreed, fingers crossed that Vasilevskiy is prepared or we could be arguing moot factors.
Haydon – Causes for Optimism
Harrison, I’ve equal respect for considering outdoors the field and slotting Guentzel in at middle. Nonetheless, it’s taking loads of maneuvering to make this roster work. By that I imply have a look at how a lot hypothesizing we now have to do to take care of what is for certain to be main changes. I’m not satisfied that this roster improved within the offseason. It merely appears reshuffled.
There’s loads of hope for the longer term with the event we now have seen and the improved depth of the group. However in relation to sport one of many 2024-25 season, this season’s Lightning roster would battle to beat final season’s roster. That’s what leaves me questioning whether or not or not the group is in a greater place to contend for the Stanley Cup proper now, not three or 4 years down the road.
General, although, along with us agreeing that a lot of the burden lies on Vasilevskiy’s shoulders, we each agree that the longer term seems to be brighter in Tampa Bay. I’m enthusiastic about what this season has in retailer, and it’s secure to say are each rooting for this dynasty to proceed.
