Donald Trump — unbridled and emboldened, his management of the Republican Social gathering all however full, canny in regards to the mechanics of presidency in a means he was not eight years again when his first election was such a shock — is headed once more to the White Home. However how precisely may this tour differ from the final tumultuous time period?
To get a greater sense of what’s to come back — within the Senate affirmation hearings for his controversial Cupboard picks, his first 100 days and past — I convened a quartet of POLITICO colleagues who’ve watched and coated Trump from the get-go: Anita Kumar, Eli Stokols, Kyle Cheney and Meridith McGraw. Their composite take: Trump is Trump, all the time has been, all the time shall be — fractious, breakneck, unscripted — however after Jan. 6, two failed assassination makes an attempt and an array of prosecutions (and convictions) didn’t cease him from getting reelected by a bigger margin than the primary time he received, he has, they are saying, a special kind of confidence and nerve. The GOP institution is not a lot making an attempt to regulate him as he’s testing absolutely the limits of its willingness and talent to face as much as him.
It’s a second that’s in some sense harking back to factors in his previous that finally led to hassle for Trump — Icarus-like inclinations which have made for scrapes he’s needed to work onerous to outlive. At the least for now, although, barreling towards what guarantees to be a contentious 4 or extra years, the forty fifth and now forty seventh president is continuing with an air of untouchability.
We had this dialog earlier than the particularly controversial Matt Gaetz withdrew from consideration as Trump’s desired lawyer common. However loads of boundary-stretching Cupboard candidates stay. “He’s daring Senate Republicans to go towards him — however he’s additionally daring all the authorities equipment to defy him,” McGraw mentioned. “There’s an audacity to all of it.”
If there’s a vestige of a guardrail left, in Cheney’s view, it’s that the safety afforded him by the place solely lasts so long as his occupation of the workplace. “All of the forces that have been coming for him have been type of defanged and obliterated,” he mentioned, “however that doesn’t imply that he’s impervious to them without end.”
This transcript has been edited for size and readability.
What up to now strikes you all as most meaningfully totally different about this Trump transition versus the primary Trump transition? Is it the picks? Is it the tempo? Is it one thing else?
Anita Kumar: Individuals mentioned after he received that, “Oh, you must know what that is like as a result of we went by way of this earlier than.” However I really assume it’s very totally different. Final time he did the transition, he had an workplace house from the federal government [in Washington]. Press was allowed to come back in there. That they had press calls from the transition. Donald Trump did some press conferences. He at the very least noticed the media, and he let the media see the individuals going as much as Trump Tower to primarily interview for jobs. So it simply felt very totally different than what he’s doing now, which is social media, press releases. We haven’t had a press convention from him. We haven’t had transition workers speaking to us. And he’s simply placing out these picks, and it’s means quicker than final time.
And the picks are actually totally different. Final time he picked individuals he didn’t actually know, who have been extra institution individuals. I do know individuals will balk at that as a result of lots of them weren’t. However in comparison with who he’s choosing now, they have been extra kind of Republicans that folks knew that perhaps he didn’t know. Individuals mentioned, “Oh, you must, you must discuss to this man” or “It is best to interview this man,” and he did. This time it’s individuals he is aware of, which have been with him for some time, and that he looks like are actually loyal.
Meridith McGraw: I feel you simply have to have a look at what a spectacle it has been each instances however in numerous methods. As Anita was saying, the parade of individuals coming by way of Trump Tower, the hypothesis about who could and who could not get a decide, who was having conferences with Donald Trump — there was the fanfare of a few of them in 2016 coming to Bedminster for photograph ops and conferences with Trump. There was Chris Christie, James Mattis, and a few very tabloid-y, New York moments — like when Mitt Romney and Reince Priebus and Trump have been caught at Jean-Georges in New York consuming frog legs and it was such a second of humiliation for Mitt Romney. Trump actually simply didn’t know what he was doing, I feel.
This time what’s totally different is all of that is taking place behind closed doorways for probably the most half, excluding glimpses of it from social media or when Trump’s allowed the press to come back into the room like when he introduced Doug Burgum off the cuff, for instance. And Trump has, I really feel, a special type of confidence with issues this time round. He is aware of how authorities works. He is aware of what stress factors there are within the authorities to push. And I feel that’s what you’re seeing with a few of these picks. It’s not solely loyalty. He is aware of that by choosing sure individuals, he’s daring Senate Republicans to go towards him — however he’s additionally daring all the authorities equipment to defy him. I had one adviser who put it to me this manner: “Look, he survived two assassination makes an attempt, he’s been indicted what number of instances — he actually is at this second feeling type of invincible and kind of emboldened in a means that he by no means has earlier than.” That’s all taking part in out with a number of the individuals he’s picked. There’s an audacity to all of it.
Kyle Cheney: It felt very a lot in 2016 like he was being dealt with by different individuals. He had Reince as his chief of workers and it felt just like the RNC infrastructure was kind of driving the practice, and he was simply there, being reeled again in from the loopy stuff that they have been afraid he may do. Whereas this time it looks as if he’s main everybody the opposite means round — he’s nonetheless acquired these individuals round him, however he’s the one pushing them extra within the path of his kind of pure instincts that he was being restrained from eight years in the past.
Eli Stokols: The primary time there was shock. They weren’t anticipating to win, and it was this actually uncomfortable merger between Trump and Trump world and the RNC institution. And now, eight years later, Trump has subsumed all the get together institution. He is the institution. And so they have been planning on successful for a very long time, and so there’s extra confidence to this. If that was a merger, then this was the takeover. However the takeover occurred during the last eight years, and now it looks like that is the relaunch. So there’s all these individuals who have grafted onto it, who’re extra in Trump’s picture and know the way to curry favor with him much better than they did earlier than.
And but, as somebody coming again to Trump world after 4 years masking Biden world on Earth 2, you come again to Earth 1, and also you’re like, “Oh, really, all this stuff are the identical.” And Boris Epshteyn is nonetheless there placing issues in Trump’s ear and making him do issues. And there’s nonetheless these little proxy battles amongst workers and other people. The dynamic round him that’s existed in each group he’s ever run, which is individuals currying for favor or making an attempt to elbow different individuals out, all these issues appear to be they’re nonetheless there. For as a lot as that is type of a extra professionalized operation, it’s nonetheless type of off-the-cuff. It nonetheless has that “holy shit” really feel.
Is there one thing noticeably totally different about Donald Trump, not the Trump orbit, not the would-be Trump White Home, however in regards to the man himself versus this time eight years in the past?
Eli Stokols: He’s the identical man. He nonetheless says the identical type of wild stuff and talks for 2 hours at rallies. However my sense is that, if something, he’s aged somewhat bit. I didn’t actually purchase the “Oh, I used to be nearly killed by the assassination, and now I’ve this new perspective on life” — that clearly didn’t actually final by way of his marketing campaign speeches. However I feel simply having gone by way of eight years of ups and downs in politics, having gone by way of all these authorized challenges, having run thrice now, it does really feel like perhaps there’s a way of I did it and I’m again and nothing can get me and nearly being at peace. Not like every thing else from right here is gravy, and he’s simply going to be a standard president and coloration throughout the traces, nevertheless it doesn’t really feel like there’s one thing consuming at him the identical means there was.
I’d be serious about Meridith’s sense of how a lot he nonetheless is animated by grievance, of individuals saying imply issues about him on TV. I’m wondering if he’s going to sit down within the eating room and watch protection of his presidency this time and react to it, and we’re going to have that very same type of Corridor of Mirrors dynamic that we had the primary time period, or if he’ll be somewhat extra sanguine.
Anita Kumar: Effectively, we ran an entire record of everyone he says he desires to get again at on Day 1.
Eli Stokols: Proper. I feel it’s going to undoubtedly be a revenge tour. However I simply kind of marvel if there shall be locations the place he’s somewhat extra subdued.
Meridith, do you have got a way of that? The phrases subdued and sanguine — not usually phrases one hears when speaking about Donald J. Trump.
Meridith McGraw: Simply pondering again to 4 years in the past and the place we have been as a rustic, we have been within the midst of the Covid pandemic. Within the 2020 marketing campaign, Trump couldn’t be this entertaining jokester having enjoyable and going with the circulate with stuff. And I’m not making gentle of Trump or his energy or what he’s able to doing as soon as he’s within the White Home, however one thing that has kind of struck me simply masking his marketing campaign and this second when he’s jetting off to a SpaceX launch and he’s having black-tie galas at his mansion by the ocean each night time, and when he was happening all these podcasts the place he’s simply ripping jokes and having bro time for hours is that he’s having enjoyable once more. And naturally, revenge, retribution, grievances, all of that’s embedded in who Trump is and what he desires to perform, but in addition you simply really feel like he’s having enjoyable with stuff proper now.
Do any of you see any distinction that you’d tie to Susie Wiles versus Reince Priebus?
Kyle Cheney: The distinction is Trump. Susie Wiles, of all of the individuals he might have picked to be his chief of workers, could also be among the many extra typical political operatives, in type of a means that Reince was. However the distinction, once more, is what we mentioned earlier. Again then, Trump was being dealt with by individuals, and now he’s doing the dealing with. He’s not going to be managed by her, and he wasn’t actually managed by Reince, both. However I feel there have been extra individuals round making an attempt to comprise him and his impulses. I don’t think about she’s going to have some totally different impact on him. If something, the impact of anybody round him shall be much less this time than it was final time.
Eli Stokols: What I keep in mind in regards to the first time period is that there was this Steve Bannon faction within the White Home, after which there was Jared and Ivanka’s world, they usually have been simply utterly like reverse ends of the earth. It looks like perhaps now there’s much less bipolarity throughout the group. There should be some rabble-rousers and perhaps Elon Musk and Boris Epshteyn are yelling at one another over shrimp cocktail at dinner, however you marvel: Will there be that type of tug of struggle happening, or is it a extra unified operation that [Wiles] goes to get to attempt to run, considerably extra cohesive than it was eight years in the past?
Do you assume Trump intentionally, and even simply successfully, shifted the thought of what’s a suitable nominee? John Ratcliffe was thought of excessive in 2019 — now let’s make him the top of the CIA. Why is he doing that?
Kyle Cheney: There’s undoubtedly an Overton window factor happening. But in addition he’s testing stress factors now, and he understands that he’s on the peak of his energy and he’s going to dare individuals to defy what may need been thought of excessive or unconfirmable picks previously — dare 4 Republican senators to say no. And I feel we’ll discover out if he’s shifted the window. But when there are 4 or 5 senators who will maintain the road — no matter Trump being on the apex of his energy — then perhaps he hasn’t shifted it that a lot. However he most likely has to a level.
The outrageous nominees may be a distraction from different outrageous issues that don’t have anything to do together with his potential Cupboard, proper?
Anita Kumar: Issues that we by no means would have thought potential, eight years in the past, or 12 years in the past, or proper earlier than he was operating, we’re type of used to now. That’s the criticism of the media: that we’re all so used to it now that we don’t pay sufficient consideration to a number of the issues that he does. I’m not saying that’s true, however I perceive how individuals say that, as a result of there are such a lot of issues taking place, and he has modified the dialog. Issues we simply couldn’t have fathomed — I imply, a person that has been convicted of felonies ran for president and received. Simply let that sink in.
What are the possibilities of each nominee getting confirmed?
Kyle Cheney: Nothing typical is true anymore, however normally somebody who’s nominated doesn’t get confirmed in nearly each White Home. There’ll most likely be some massive fights over Pete Hegseth and Tulsi Gabbard and RFK Jr. too. Whether or not the Senate has the desire to disclaim multiple of them, I don’t know, however I believe at the very least one.
Eli Stokols: Nevertheless it nearly simply looks like: Why wouldn’t he push? He was indicted, he was twice impeached, he did this revolt, he was beneath investigation all these locations and accused of sexual abuse by all these girls — and he received. And at each level during the last eight years, the Republican Social gathering bent the knee. So, should you actually need change on the DOJ, why wouldn’t you attempt? I imply, it’s not stunning that he would shoot his shot.
Kyle Cheney: However we will consider the 5 or 6 senators who can be that particular person to say no. The Senate is the least inclined establishment to his stress. It doesn’t imply they’re not inclined. It simply technique of all of the establishments they’re the least inclined.
Which is strictly why he’s going at them, on this means, proper now.
Kyle Cheney: Proper. We’ll discover out precisely simply how inclined to his stress they’re, and whether or not the previous norms nonetheless apply of the Senate’s the place a few of these loopy issues go to die. I imply, Susan Collins has a really totally different calculus for what to do than another senators. John Thune is just not precisely of the Trumpy facet of the get together, however he has a special constituency now. And the calculus there’s completely totally different than every other a part of every other establishment within the authorities.
Eli Stokols: Thom Tillis, he could have a tough time, as a result of he’s developing for reelection, and Democrats, except for the highest of the ticket, did fairly nicely in North Carolina. The larger dynamic that I’m occupied with is it’s been eight years, and I feel there’s this fatigue with the outrage. Numerous the voters simply doesn’t care. They don’t care that Trump does issues that different individuals can’t do. They don’t care that he will get in bother. They’re high quality with it. And the resistance that you just noticed in 2016 and ’17? It doesn’t really feel like that’s going to manifest in the identical means. Possibly Republicans within the Senate who’re institutionalists will say, “No, this ‘recommendation and consent’ function is actually essential. We’re not going to provide that up.” However there’s additionally the broader dynamic with the voters. He doesn’t have an enormous mandate on something aside from the financial system. However he did win by his largest margin ever despite all of it. It’s been eight years and he’s nonetheless standing and everybody else is exhausted.
And it appears to me that individuals who do care, care the opposite means. They actively need him to interrupt the Senate, if that’s the appropriate option to put it. That is what they’re asking him to do. For this reason they re-elected him.
Eli Stokols: I feel that’s proper.
Anita Kumar: There’s been reporting on the market from us and others that that his supporters love this. They love that he’s placing these individuals on the market. They’re supportive. They need these individuals.
So, if a few of these nominees are rejected by the Senate, will Trump contemplate it a loss, or will there be a means wherein he casts it as a loss for these senators who’ve gotten in the best way?
Kyle Cheney: There have been all these threats from the kind of on-line MAGA proper that anybody who votes towards the Trump nominee will get main threats. And I don’t assume a few of these senators take that too severely, for the explanations we mentioned. I’m curious in regards to the notion of political capital, and the standard sense that usually you’d say, “Does Trump wish to spend all his political capital ramming by way of Matt Gaetz?” I don’t assume Trump thinks about political capital that means. I feel the one individuals who do can be those who’ve elections to fret about, which Trump by no means will once more. And so I feel that it’s simply not the kind of regular opening to a presidency that we might see the place somebody says, “What do you wish to spend your first 100 days occupied with?”
Based mostly on what you’ve all seen and heard all through the marketing campaign, however particularly in the previous couple of weeks for the reason that election, what do you assume shall be totally different in regards to the second Trump time period relative to the primary Trump time period?
Meridith McGraw: I’ve been so struck by what number of acquainted faces are coming again into the fold. It’s been a fairly constant solid of characters, and there’s some new main roles which have stepped onto the stage, however a variety of the supporting actors are nonetheless there. I feel on this White Home, once more, the most important distinction is simply going to be that Trump is aware of how all of this works, and the individuals round him understand how authorities operates and the way to get issues performed, and Trump simply has a higher consciousness of who to name and what levers to tug to enact his agenda this time.
Anita Kumar: I agree on the primary half. It’s the identical individuals I coated with you, Meridith, all these years in the past. I simply preserve occupied with the way it felt like he didn’t have anybody or something in place eight years in the past, and he type of simply took the RNC and simply moved a variety of these individuals in — Sean Spicer being the primary press secretary and all that kind of stuff. And now it looks like that’s probably not taking place, as a result of he has his personal staff within the RNC now. I do assume, although, that folks [shouldn’t be] stunned about what he’s doing and what he’s going to do on Day One. He did the identical factor final time, simply that no one actually believed him. He’s type of outlined the issues he’s going to do. And I feel we must always take him at his phrase, as a result of he did push by way of, or he tried to push by way of, the issues that he mentioned he would on immigration and different issues.
Eli Stokols: It’ll be attention-grabbing to observe the dynamics of the individuals in his ear. The Elon Musk side of that is endlessly fascinating. There was nobody fairly like that in his first time period, kind of sitting shotgun with him as he’s going into the White Home. The man’s pursuits and energy are already profound. Is there an eventual character conflict, or is Elon empowered to undercut Marco Rubio as secretary of State and exit and backchannel with different heads of state? We’ve all the time seen that in any Trump group: the type of infighting, the angling, individuals kind of competing for primacy. So I’m certain that can proceed. Everybody’s a MAGA particular person now, however there are nonetheless variations, like private pursuits and other people with coverage objectives. We’re seeing that with protectionism stuff within the Treasury secretary put up already. There’s all these little fights that happen proper round him always. And I feel that’s a very attention-grabbing storyline that shall be related in a variety of methods to what we noticed the primary time.
It’s all the time been the case — he desires individuals round him to be squabbling — however I do marvel, in a extra institutional sense, what might cease him or gradual him down this time. Is it kind of the identical commonplace guardrails, or is there one thing else?
Kyle Cheney: There’s one factor, and it’s self-preservation. That’s Trump’s working precept in every thing he’s performed for the reason that first time. As Eli was saying earlier, this peace and serenity he’s feeling is predicated on the truth that he thinks he could have lastly self-preserved. All of the forces that have been coming for him have been type of defanged and obliterated. However that doesn’t imply that he’s impervious to them without end. If he have been to do one thing that crossed traces into impeachable or felony territory once more, you may have a Democratic majority in two years in both chamber of Congress, after which he has the post-presidency to consider. His New York felony case, which most likely wasn’t going to end in a stiff sentence anyway — that would come again in 4 years. All this stuff he’s escaped proper now — that doesn’t imply he’s escaped them without end.
You’re pointing to the identical checks that attempted to verify him earlier than and failed.
Kyle Cheney: That’s truthful. However I feel Trump is aware of how unbelievably lucky he was for that. That was by way of lawyering and delays, techniques that won’t be accessible to him, as a result of he won’t ever be a candidate for this workplace once more. These have been what protected him. As an 83-year-old man leaving the White Home, he might nonetheless be spending a few years having to struggle off these sorts of efforts if he crosses sure boundaries. I simply assume it’s that self-preservation intuition, which isn’t a lot of a verify, however I feel it’s nonetheless an impulse that checks him to a sure diploma.
What’s your wildest prediction for the subsequent 4 years?
Kyle Cheney: I’m making an attempt to determine if Democrats retake the Home, whether or not they are going to impeach him once more, or shall be too afraid to question him once more. I haven’t determined which is the higher prediction.
Eli Stokols: I feel all of it goes nice and he unifies the nation.
Love that. Meridith, any closing phrases?
Meridith McGraw: I feel the one predictable factor about Trump is how unpredictable he will be, and he’s proved it to us as soon as once more over the previous two weeks. I feel he proved it to us in some methods with this win, frankly. And I feel we’re going to should be ready for lots extra twists and turns within the subsequent few years.
