Unlock the Editor’s Digest without spending a dime
Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite tales on this weekly e-newsletter.
The author is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program on the James Martin Middle for Nonproliferation Research
Whereas on the advance in Ukraine, Russia has not too long ago suffered tactical setbacks within the Center East. The autumn of Aleppo to Syrian rebels is merely the most recent in a string of developments — set in movement by the occasions of October 7 final yr — to trigger issues for the Kremlin.
Amid the continued struggle in Gaza, Israel has taken on Russia’s associate Iran and its associates within the “axis of resistance” in a protracted tit-for-tat. Within the spring, intensified Israeli operations in Syria eradicated scores of Iran-affiliated fighters and weapons. Israel upped the ante in September, unleashing a cyber-kinetic operation in opposition to Hizbollah which culminated within the killing of its management. In late October, it bombed Iran’s ballistic missile programme and different defence-industrial websites.
Whereas Israel has proven it means enterprise vis-à-vis Iran, Moscow, with the struggle in Ukraine its prime precedence, has had neither the bandwidth nor want to emerge as Iran’s knight in shining armour. Extra importantly, Israel’s campaigns have most likely affected Iran’s capability to switch missiles and different gear to Russia — at the least within the short-term. The simultaneity of combating in Ukraine and the Center East may need boosted Russia and Iran’s want to co-operate, however on the similar time it limits what help they’ll lend one another.
The lightning offensive by Syrian rebels now provides to Russia’s regional woes. Syria had been Russia’s success story. By intervening within the civil struggle in 2015, Vladimir Putin saved Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, cultivating the picture of a loyal ally. The seize of Aleppo by the Syrian regime in late 2016 was pivotal, paving the best way for Russia to launch the Astana course of with Iran and Turkey. Since 2017, that course of has dictated the trajectory of the battle, facilitating the emergence of a precarious equilibrium amongst inside and exterior actors carving up the nation.
After its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia calculated that it may keep the state of affairs in Syria with restricted effort. It recalibrated its navy presence and pushed for Assad’s regional and worldwide rehabilitation, however hit a wall with the Syrian chief’s refusal to yield an inch to Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In the meantime, progress in the direction of a real political resolution to the battle floor to an entire halt, with Russia stonewalling the convening of Syria’s constitutional committee.
Final week, the Russians learnt the laborious means that frozen conflicts like Syria are frozen solely till they don’t seem to be. Moscow had feared for months that Syria may get swept up within the regional aftershocks of October 7 and has appeared startled by the sheer scale and velocity of the insurgent offensive.
It’s true that the post-October 7 dynamics have yielded advantages to Russia by diverting western consideration and sources from Ukraine to the Center East. However they’ve introduced appreciable dangers to a thinly-stretched Russia, too. Iran is weaker right this moment than it was a yr in the past; Israel’s marketing campaign in opposition to Hizbollah helped to ascertain circumstances beneficial to the Aleppo offensive; and Turkey, Russia’s associate within the Astana course of, sensed a gap to settle unfinished enterprise in Syria.
Thus far, Russia’s regional setbacks are primarily tactical and of restricted consequence for its Ukraine marketing campaign. Whether or not they flip into strategic complications will rely on the battlefield dynamics in Syria, on Israel’s urge for food for additional taking up Iran, and on the incoming Trump administration within the US.
Russia is now scrambling to thwart additional insurgent advances with out having to ship reinforcements to Syria. It might nicely achieve defending its affect. However ought to Israel or the US ratchet up the strain on Iran, Russia’s means to protect its associate can be restricted.
