Greater than 13 years since Bashar al-Assad’s safety forces opened hearth on protesters demanding democratic reforms, the Syrian president’s grip on energy might lastly be weakening.
The 59-year-old son and inheritor of late dictator Hafez al-Assad has confronted a number of setbacks in the course of the lengthy civil battle triggered by his brutal crackdown in March 2011, however has to this point managed to cling on to energy.
Now, along with his Lebanese ally Hezbollah reeling from an Israeli onslaught and his nice energy backer Russia distracted by its invasion of Ukraine, Assad is operating in need of pals on the battlefield.
Key cities within the north, together with Aleppo and Hama have fallen to opposition fighters in only a matter of days.
And on Saturday the rebels mentioned they’re now encircling the capital the place Assad has dominated for the reason that demise of his father in 2000.
Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has welcomed the insurgent advance; Israel is reinforcing its forces within the occupied Golan; and Syria’s southern neighbour Jordan is organising an evacuation of its residents.
In an additional signal of Assad’s isolation, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) group, which controls a lot of northeast Syria, mentioned it was prepared to talk to its foes among the many Turkish-backed rebels.
However worldwide observers have repeatedly predicted the remoted former ophthalmologist’s fall for the reason that earliest months of the rebellion, and so they have repeatedly been incorrect.
The 2011 protests in opposition to Assad’s rule started after a teen was arrested for allegedly scrawling anti-government graffiti within the southern city of Daraa.
– Gorgeous advance –
Now, for Assad’s rule, the “writing is on the wall”, Joshua Landis, of the Middle for Center East Research on the College of Oklahoma informed AFP. “Issues are folding in a short time.”
The insurgent advance has been gorgeous.
After Aleppo and Hama fell in fast succession, the rebels and authorities forces had been clashing Saturday close to the most important metropolis of Homs.
Its seize would successfully lower Assad’s capital off from his assist base within the Alawite minority group within the coastal highlands.
“The Alawite minority has misplaced religion in Assad,” Landis mentioned. “There are critical questions on whether or not the Syrian military has any struggle left.”
However some warning is merited. In any case, have not world leaders underestimated Assad earlier than?
As early as November 2011, Turkey’s Erdogan urged Assad to carry free elections and warned that his “workplace is barely short-term”.
In October 2012, throughout a re-election marketing campaign debate, US president Barack Obama additionally warned Assad that his “days are numbered”.
The subsequent month, Nabil Elaraby, then the pinnacle of the Arab League, declared “everybody is aware of that the regime in Syria is not going to stay for lengthy”.
The Syrian strongman defied all of them, whilst worldwide legal professionals drew up arrest warrants for battle crimes and rights teams denounced Syria’s use of chemical weapons and aerial bombardment in civilian areas.
Because the civil battle spiralled into overlapping regional conflicts — authorities versus rebels, Turkey versus Kurdish fighters, US-backed militias in opposition to Islamic State group jihadists — Assad retained his grip.
At first he was ostracised by many fellow Arab leaders, leaning as a substitute on Iranian and Russian assist, however because it turned clear he was not leaving the stage diplomatic ties quietly resumed.
– Insurgent victories –
And in the meantime, Russia and Iran had Assad’s again. Lebanon’s pro-Iran Hezbollah despatched hundreds of fighters, backed by Iranian advisers, to bolster Syrian authorities forces. Russia carried out air strikes.
However the velocity of this week’s insurgent victories appears to recommend that with out his highly effective international pals, Assad’s Syrian military is a hole shell.
Russia has such little confidence in its ally that its embassy has acknowledged a “troublesome army and political scenario”.
Earlier than the current ceasefire in its battle with Israel, Hezbollah misplaced hundreds of fighters and weapons and its long-standing chief Hassan Nasrallah.
It seems to be in no place to assist, regardless of a Hezbollah supply saying Saturday it had despatched 2,000 fighters into Syria’s Qusayr space “to defend its positions”.
“The Assad authorities is in its most precarious place for the reason that summer season of 2012,” Nick Heras, an analyst on the New Strains Institute, informed AFP.
“There’s a actual threat that the Assad authorities might lose energy in Damascus, both by way of battles or by way of a negotiated retreat.
“Finally, the Assad authorities’s potential to outlive will depend upon the extent to which Iran and Russia see Assad as helpful to their methods within the area.”
Heras mentioned that Russia, which has a naval base within the Syrian port of Tartus, can be loath to withdraw its army personnel and belongings from the nation, and Iran can be equally reluctant to desert Assad.
“If both or each of these allies determine they will advance their pursuits with out Assad, then his days in energy are numbered,” Heras mentioned.
The winners can be Assad’s fundamental regional opponents: Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkey’s Erdogan, who each confronted durations of intense home criticism solely to emerge victorious in battle.
Turkey-backed rebels at the moment are spearheading the opposition advance on Homs, and Israeli air strikes in opposition to Hezbollah and Iranian targets in Syria have successfully neutralised Assad’s most potent backer.
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