Politics
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October 7, 2024
The Democratic nominee is appearing like defending her small lead is extra necessary than energizing her base. We’ve seen this story earlier than—and it didn’t finish effectively.
For the reason that week of the Democratic Nationwide Conference in mid-August, Kamala Harris has run an exceptionally cautious presidential marketing campaign. Previous to the DNC, within the month the place the Democratic Occasion was coalescing round her candidacy, Harris offered herself as a break from the previous, adopting new slogans (“We’re not going again!”), talking way more vigorously than Joe Biden about abortion rights, and making an sudden decide within the type of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz (whose personal rhetorical fashion, together with a willingness to name out Republicans as “bizarre,” was additionally refreshingly unconventional).
By the point theDNC occurred, Harris had settled into small however persistent lead within the polls. Whereas this has been an enormous enchancment over Joe Biden (who was on monitor to a big loss to Donald Trump), it additionally had the perverse impact of creating Harris reduce the boldness of her campaigning. The Harris marketing campaign evidently adopted a do-no-harm technique—premised on the idea that their finest wager is to not upset the applecart with any new guarantees and as a substitute to enhance their place with average Republicans by emphasizing Trump’s instability.
This new technique may be seen in the whole lot from the elevation of Liz Cheney as a surrogate (Harris lately met with Cheney on the birthplace of the Republican get together in Wisconsin) to Tim Walz’s genial, noncombative engagement with JD Vance through the vice-presidential debate. An extra instance of cautious campaigning is the truth that Harris been notably unwilling to criticize or break with Biden in any manner, even over his unpopular Center East coverage.
The issue with a let-sleeping-dogs lie technique is that you simply can not management exterior occasions. October in a presidential 12 months is famously a month of surprises. Final week, a dockworker’s strike threatened to upend the economic system—a hazard solely averted when the union agreed to postpone the strike till January. Th scenario within the Center East presents an excellent better chance of occasions spiralling uncontrolled. Israel’s onslaught in opposition to Gaza has already unfold into a bigger regional battle that now consists of the still-expanding conflict in Lebanon in addition to missile exchanges with Iran.
Biden himself is conscious that the Israeli authorities of Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing a coverage that endangers the Democrats. Final Wednesday, Politico reported, “Biden advised confidants that he didn’t imagine his Israeli counterpart wished a cease-fire deal, arguing that Netanyahu was making an attempt to perpetuate the battle to save lots of his political future and help Trump in November’s election.” The danger right here isn’t just Netanyahu’s actions however Biden’s fecklessness. Regardless that Biden can acknowledge that Netanyahu is retaining the battle going to assist Trump, he’s unwilling to make use of his presidential energy to curb Netanyahu in any manner. By refraining from distancing herself from Biden, Harris is tying herself to a coverage that’s already unpopular with Democratic voters and will develop into an anchor dragging her down if the US turns into militarily engaged in one other Center Jap conflict.
The play-it-safe technique additionally means doing fewer occasions and fewer media. On Saturday, Politico printed a prolonged report documenting that dissent in opposition to this coverage was rising amongst Democrats. Based on Politico:
Democratic operatives, together with a few of Kamala Harris’ personal staffers, are rising more and more involved about her comparatively mild marketing campaign schedule, which has her holding fewer occasions than Donald Trump and avoiding unscripted interactions with voters and the press virtually totally.
In interviews with POLITICO, practically two dozen Democrats described Harris as working a do-no-harm, risk-averse method to the race they concern might hamper her because the marketing campaign enters its last 30-day stretch.
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Harris and Walz had been each extremely seen earlier than the DNC however have saved a decrease profile since. As Politico notes, “Walz, who partly received the working mate slot due to his energy doing high-profile interviews—however…has largely stopped doing them since becoming a member of a marketing campaign run by a group decided to attenuate threat.” Over the past month, Harris’s avoidance of the general public highlight resembled that Hillary Clinton’s dropping effort in 2016 than the extra vigorous campaigning fashion that introduced Barack Obama victory in 2008.
Taking part in it secure and pursuing By no means Trump Republicans would possibly make sense if Harris had a wholesome lead and the Democratic base had been solidly on board and energized. However, sadly, that is removed from the case.
Massachusetts Consultant Seth Moulton describes the race as “frighteningly shut,” even with a brand new candidate. He desires Harris to speak way more, and intimately, about her financial and immigration insurance policies. A Democratic operative advised Politico, “You gotta get to Michigan. That you must reside in Pennsylvania [because] the problem continues to be Black voters in Philadelphia, Black voters in Detroit.” In a non-public name with donors, Consultant Elissa Slotnik mentioned, “I’m not feeling my finest proper now about the place we’re on Kamala Harris in a spot like Michigan.” It may very well be that Slotnik is making an attempt to drum up cash from donors by scaring them, however prudence means that given the general public polls are shut, her warning must be heeded.
Harris continues to be not the place she must be with Black voters, Latino voters, younger voters, or working-class voters. These are the teams the Harris marketing campaign should give attention to energizing. Provided that reality, pursuing By no means Trump Republicans by praising Dick Cheney is an act of folly, as Dave Zirin lately famous in The Nation. By no means Trump Republicans are only a few in quantity—Liz Cheney’s defeat in 2022 might have been the largest main loss by an incumbent on this century—and catering to their agenda dangers alienating core Democratic constituencies.
The excellent news is that there are indicators that the Harris marketing campaign itself is doing a reset on the play-it-safe technique. Subsequent week, Harris will probably be ramping up her media appearances, doing interviews on 60 Minutes and The View and with Stephen Colbert, and Howard Stern. She’ll even be campaigning in Nevada and Arizona. The media interviews themselves are solely child steps since, except for 60 Minutes, they may principally be with extraordinarily pleasant shops.
Past a extra seen Harris, we additionally must see a bolder Harris. There isn’t any motive for her to be afraid of criticizing Biden—particularly since Biden and his workers have began to undermine Harris by suggesting that he might’ve received if he stayed within the race. As CNN reported on Sunday, “Prime aides to Kamala Harris are heading into the ultimate month of the 2024 presidential race nonetheless wrestling with how a lot distance she will credibly declare from Joe Biden as she seems to be for extra methods to weave in breaks with him on the marketing campaign path.” CNN additionally reported that polling performed by Democrats reveals that voters are on the lookout for Harris to separate herself from Biden.
A pointy break with Biden on just a few core points can be precisely the daring transfer Harris wants proper now.
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