Current shopper survey information on iPhone gross sales factors to an absence of development for Apple , in accordance with KeyBanc Capital Markets. Analyst Brandon Nispel downgraded the megacap tech title to underweight from sector weight, and his $200 worth goal displays greater than 13% draw back forward, as of Thursday’s shut. Shares fell practically 1% within the premarket following the analyst’s transfer. 12 months thus far, the inventory has soared practically 20%. AAPL YTD mountain AAPL, year-to-date Nispel thinks the iPhone SE is “not purely additive” to general iPhone gross sales, citing information from the agency’s shopper iPhone survey for September. The survey confirmed that 59% of respondents are excited by upgrading to the iPhone 16. Moreover, amongst those that are seemingly or extraordinarily more likely to improve to the iPhone 16, 61% have an interest within the iPhone SE. “We predict this reveals the iPhone SE isn’t incremental, and will presumably be cannibalistic to iPhone 16 gross sales,” the analyst wrote in a Thursday observe. “From our view, if iPhone SE is profitable, iPhone Items might rise however [average sales prices] might fall, opposite to consensus.” On high of that, Nispel anticipates that improve charges within the U.S. aren’t more likely to transfer increased heading into subsequent yr. Actually, they could possibly be down mid-single digits within the fourth quarter and low-single digits within the first half of 2025. In the meantime, he thinks an inflection throughout the corporate’s product classes is “unrealistic” shifting ahead. “Consensus expects Apple ’25 income development to speed up increased and to develop throughout all product classes and geographies,” he continued. “Whereas it’s actually attainable Apple can obtain this feat, it isn’t possible, in our view.” The analyst additionally pointed to an costly valuation. The title at present has a ahead price-to-earnings ratio of about 34.4, in accordance with FactSet. Nispel’s downgrade makes him the lone analyst protecting the inventory with an underperform-equivalent score. LSEG information reveals that 35 of 48 analysts price Apple as a purchase or robust purchase, whereas one other 12 have a maintain score.
