![[Kim Seong-kon] Hoping for no ‘October surprises’ this 12 months](https://i0.wp.com/res.heraldm.com/phpwas/restmb_idxmake.php?idx=640&simg=/content/image/2024/10/08/20241008050719_0.jpg&w=860&resize=860,0&ssl=1 "[Kim Seong-kon] Hoping for no ‘October surprises’ this 12 months")
In 2006, I briefly stayed in Buffalo, New York, on my approach from the College of California, Berkeley to Harvard. In October that 12 months, a heavy blizzard hit Buffalo so onerous that everybody was caught at dwelling for a few week, struggling by way of all method of ordeals, from blackouts and empty fridges to highway blocks attributable to enormous piles of snow. The individuals of Buffalo known as the premature climate calamity “the October shock,” as a result of a blizzard was not anticipated within the fall.
Within the US, although, an “October shock” often means a shocking occasion in that month that would closely affect the end result of the upcoming presidential election within the first week of November. Typically the occasion happens spontaneously, whereas at different instances it’s intentionally deliberate. Both approach, an October shock can play a decisive function within the final result of the November election. Naturally, American presidential candidates can’t assist however get nervous about October surprises as a result of they may hurt them and profit their political opponent.
October surprises have an extended historical past in America.
Within the 1956 US presidential election, the Suez Canal Disaster and Hungarian Revolution had been October surprises that introduced victory to Dwight Eisenhower. Within the 1972 presidential election, Henry Kissinger’s announcement, “We consider that peace is at hand,” contributed to the victory of Richard Nixon as a result of it appealed to the voters who wished to see an finish to the Vietnam Warfare.
Extra lately, October surprises embrace the allegations of Hillary Clinton’s use of a personal electronic mail server throughout her tenure within the authorities, US intelligence businesses’ public accusation of Russia’s interference within the US election course of and the New York Occasions report on Donald Trump’s astronomical quantity of debt. All of them occurred in October, simply earlier than the presidential election.
South Korea, too, has had her share of October surprises up to now. Through the navy dictatorship, for instance, the federal government introduced that it had newly found one other underground tunnel coming from North Korea, simply earlier than the presidential election. Consequently, the sense of disaster made the individuals need to reelect the previous basic for president for the sake of nationwide safety.
Later, when South Korea was democratized, the civilian authorities additionally used stress with North Korea for political acquire, such because the feasibility of imminent peace talks with North Korea, or a attainable go to of the North Korean chief to Seoul, simply earlier than the election. Thus, the Korean individuals known as it the “North Wind” blowing in election season.
Though it was by no means significantly a shock, the North Wind successfully took benefit of South Koreans’ fears of a second Korean Warfare and thus tended to achieve influencing upcoming elections. At any time when the North Wind blew in South Korea, due to this fact, the end result of presidential elections was predictable. Wanting again on these days, we now understand they weren’t honest elections.
The 2024 American presidential election is simply across the nook. Today, individuals marvel, “What might be this 12 months’s October shock?”
Nobody is aware of but, however it is going to certainly come quickly and have an effect on the end result of the November election. If one thing occurs spontaneously, then there may be nothing we are able to do about it. Then again, if some individuals intentionally conjure up an October shock to be able to hurt their political opponent, we shouldn’t be swayed by it and stand agency as a substitute.
Regardless of such October surprises, the candidates should undergo a good competitors. If a disqualified candidate marched into the White Home or a extremely certified candidate misplaced the election due to a shocking occasion earlier than the election, it could be not solely unfair, but in addition unlucky for the way forward for America.
In my city in New England, a home arrange a signboard supporting the Republican candidate, which says, “That is our final probability to avoid wasting America.” One other home throughout the road shows a signboard for the Democratic candidate, saying, “That is our final probability to avoid wasting democracy.” Each the Republicans and Democrats appear to have their very own compelling causes for his or her candidate.
Consultants have warned that the world order will change radically relying on who will lead America for the following 4 years. Thus, the end result of the upcoming US presidential election will have an effect on not solely America herself, but in addition many different nations on Earth. That’s the reason many foreigners are carefully watching.
We wish no extra October surprises that will affect the end result of the 2024 presidential election in America. We need to see a good competitors and the American individuals’s smart alternative unaffected by exterior forces. We strongly hope that People elect a perfectly certified chief not just for America alone, but in addition for the complete world.
If an October shock occurs regardless of our want, we don’t want it to have an effect on the end result of the American election. All of it is dependent upon the American individuals’s discretion and maturity.
Kim Seong-kon
Kim Seong-kon is a professor emeritus of English at Seoul Nationwide College and a visiting scholar at Dartmouth Faculty. The views expressed listed here are the author’s personal. — Ed.
