Heading into this Premier League weekend, Manchester Metropolis had been high of the desk and Arsenal had been in second place.
All of it feels extraordinarily acquainted.
In 2022-23, Arsenal misplaced house and away to Metropolis, and completed 5 factors behind them. Final season, Arsenal beat Metropolis in London however drew with them in Manchester and ended up two factors adrift of them within the ultimate standings. When the margins separating the winners and losers in title races are tiny, successful away to your rivals for the trophy is vital. However does the actual fact we’re so early into the brand new season imply one other stalemate on the Etihad Stadium right this moment (Sunday) would swimsuit Mikel Arteta’s guests?
Each side recorded goalless attracts of their Champions League openers in midweek, however Pep Guardiola’s aspect head into this sport with an additional 24 hours of relaxation of their legs and with Erling Haaland one away from changing into the primary participant to succeed in double figures for objectives in his first 5 appearances of a Premier League season. Nevertheless, he’s dealing with a defence who’ve conceded simply thrice in 9 Premier League away video games throughout the calendar 12 months thus far.
We requested our Metropolis author (Sam Lee), considered one of our Arsenal writers (Artwork de Roche) and considered one of our knowledge and ways specialists (Thom Harris) to ponder some key questions forward of the fixture.
Will Arsenal’s mindset be that successful is crucial this time?
That might positively have been the case if they’d not gained at Tottenham Hotspur final weekend, however that end result modifications issues ever so barely. Three factors right this moment would see Arsenal leapfrog Metropolis, however returning to north London with a draw shouldn’t be catastrophic. Whereas many assumed they settled for some extent on their final go to to Metropolis, Arsenal’s strategy was much like their two earlier wins over them and that north London derby win final weekend. Gabriel Jesus and Leandro Trossard squandering probabilities was the distinction. This time, they’ll look to be simply as aggressive however will must be extra medical in these key offensive moments.
Artwork de Roche
(Simon Stacpoole/Offside/Offside through Getty Pictures)
I agree with Artwork — whereas it won’t really feel prefer it in the meanwhile, Metropolis will drop factors someplace alongside the road, and it’s absolutely advisable to deal with staying inside touching distance reasonably than going all out for a victory right here and danger falling 5 factors behind and having to play catch-up at this early stage. A degree could be a valuable one, and if Arsenal can hold it as tight as they did towards Tottenham, they could nicely get an opportunity or two to nick all three anyway.
Thom Harris
Will Metropolis be capable of deal with Arsenal’s set-piece risk?
Clearly, Arsenal are robust in that division however it’s not as if Metropolis are significantly weak. Of the six first-team defenders prone to be chosen, solely 5ft 6in (169cm) Rico Lewis is small for a defender. The remaining are Kyle Walker, Ruben Dias, Manuel Akanji, John Stones and Josko Gvardiol. Top shouldn’t be the one figuring out issue, in fact, and Metropolis are fairly tenacious when difficult for balls into the field, and it shouldn’t be underestimated that they know a factor or two about screening themselves; they’ve even benefited from NBA ways through the Boston Celtics. Metropolis may be caught out from set items at instances — who doesn’t? — however as a result of they know that many groups visiting the Etihad might be targeted on nicking a bonus from useless balls, they must put in not less than equal quantities of labor to cease that from taking place.
Sam Lee
Set performs are extremely situational; a lapse in focus, a misplaced particular person duel or a very good cross can undo hours of arduous work in the course of the week. Nonetheless, the overall dead-ball traits are revealing — whereas Arsenal have been extraordinarily harmful relating to attacking set-pieces because the begin of final season, Metropolis have been by far and away the very best at defending them. The beneath scatter chart tells us that Guardiola’s aspect have conceded simply 1.6 objectives per 100 set items, not together with penalties — that equates to 3 within the final 186 they’ve confronted – the very best defensive charge among the many 17 Premier League ever-presents in that point.
Information are there to be damaged, although, and Metropolis haven’t regarded fully infallible; Ethan Pinnock alone had three probabilities from corners on the Etihad final weekend, whereas fellow Brentford defender Nathan Collins was solely denied by an instinctive Ederson save early within the first half. Having mentioned that, the cautious, data-led suggestion could be that these two groups cancel one another out as soon as once more.
Thom Harris
(Michael Regan/Getty Pictures)
Is Haaland vs Arsenal’s centre-backs the important thing battle?
Will probably be one of some key battles. Arsenal shut out Haaland in all three conferences final season (together with the Neighborhood Protect), with the striker failing to actually have a shot on course in any of these matches. Key to that was how William Saliba and fellow centre-back Gabriel took turns in getting tight and bodily with him. They didn’t permit him to get any momentum, whether or not it was when operating in behind or just in getting a really feel for the sport. Replicating that might be vital, as will how Arsenal determine to strategy defending sure areas. Their wingers had been important to conserving Spurs quiet final Sunday, and comparable work may assist in Manchester.
Artwork de Roche
Haaland is clearly Metropolis’s essential scoring risk, however whereas we have now all targeted on his 9 league objectives in 4 video games, together with these back-to-back hat-tricks, it has most likely gone unnoticed that there usually are not many objectives coming from their different gamers. In that sense, if he can’t get service, or if he does however misses his probabilities, it severely impacts Metropolis’s probabilities of successful. Then again, we all know he usually goes by video games with out having many touches, and that that is largely by design — so he can pin centre-backs and create house in midfield for Metropolis’s different forwards.
(Darren Staples/AFP through Getty Pictures)
In that sense, it’s attainable that he may win the battle by getting 4 touches and doing nothing of notice all afternoon, so long as he retains Saliba and Gabriel occupied and lets his colleagues get on with it. Whether or not Haaland scores or not could have an enormous say within the precise end result, nevertheless it is only one facet of this sport — Metropolis must be ok to get by the Arsenal press to attempt to create probabilities for him anyway.
Sam Lee
I very a lot agree with Sam right here; the 2 centre-backs may nullify Haaland for 99 per cent of the sport, solely to be undone by a second of high quality — very similar to they had been in Metropolis’s 3-1 win on the Emirates Stadium in February 2023, when he scored with just about his first sight of purpose with lower than 10 minutes of the 90 to go.
Unstoppable 💪
Erling Haaland scored his twenty sixth Premier League purpose of the season towards Arsenal 🤯#PLonPrime pic.twitter.com/uy2aXK91Lm
— Amazon Prime Video Sport (@primevideosport) February 16, 2023
The indicators are encouraging for Arsenal, although — that’s Haaland’s solely purpose in 359 minutes towards the Saliba and Gabriel partnership throughout all competitions, racking up simply 0.58 xG in near 4 full video games. His solely actually dominant efficiency towards Arteta’s aspect got here when Rob Holding stepped in for an injured Saliba later that very same season. I’ll proceed to sit down on the fence — conserving Haaland quiet might be essential for an Arsenal win, nevertheless it gained’t assure one both.
Thom Harris
Ought to we anticipate a basic between the league’s finest two groups?
Whereas it could be good, I’m not anticipating an all-timer of a sport. After the three matches between the edges final season, and Arsenal’s current matches towards Spurs and Atalanta, it seems like one other 90 minutes of rigidity is on the horizon. Arteta tried to go blow-for-blow towards Metropolis in his first title problem in 2022-23, however particular person errors crept in and allowed Guardiola’s aspect to run away with the match. His change to extra of a ‘Plan B’ for greater video games was a welcome change final season and has stored Arsenal in these encounters. If the Spaniard had the midfield three he envisaged in the summertime (Martin Odegaard, Declan Rice and Mikel Merino) out there then issues could have been completely different, however he doesn’t — so anticipate extra of the identical.
Artwork de Roche
I keep in mind one factor very clearly from after the goalless draw on the Etihad in March: I didn’t need the 2 golf equipment to fulfill once more within the Champions League semi-finals, which was attainable on the time. I had been anticipating an excellent sport earlier than kick-off that Sunday, as a result of most of Metropolis’s current title deciders, house or away, had been fairly dramatic, with wonderful soccer on present — and we clearly received nowhere close to that. It could simply be that was what Jurgen Klopp delivered to the celebration when his Liverpool staff had been Metropolis’s essential challengers, and Arteta has a distinct means of dealing with these large video games.
That mentioned, it’s not like Guardiola by no means chooses a defensive strategy. Metropolis’s sport plan on the Emirates final 12 months was to flee with a 0-0, given he was involved concerning the absence of a suspended Rodri from his midfield. And Metropolis weren’t at their finest within the return sport, both. It’s not controversial to say that if Arteta desires his staff to dig in, then it’s tougher to think about a basic, simply by the character of the encounter. It may nonetheless be an excellent sport if each groups take their probabilities, in fact, however who says Arsenal are going to go together with the identical sport plan anyway?
Sam Lee
Very joyful to be fallacious on this one, however I really feel like an early-ish purpose is the one factor that may relieve us from one other tense battle of attrition.
Thom Harris
This fixture ended 6-3 in 2013 however right this moment’s sport is unlikely to have 9 objectives (Martin Rickett/PA Pictures through Getty Pictures)
Who would be the greater miss, Kevin De Bruyne (if he doesn’t recuperate) or Odegaard?
Though De Bruyne is among the Premier League’s best-ever midfielders, Metropolis’s power in depth makes his absences simpler to take care of. Arsenal have lacked any actual tempo with out Odegaard, as he’s instrumental to what they do on the ball in all thirds of the pitch. Contemplating there was such a stark stylistic distinction with out him within the aspect, it doesn’t really feel too rogue to recommend that Arsenal’s captain could be the larger miss. Apart from purpose contributions, Odegaard is sort of at all times the participant who units the tone for Arsenal with and with out the ball, and he might be a large miss throughout this ongoing harm lay-off.
For an instance of how influential he’s, final season he was considered one of simply two Arsenal gamers to be concerned in not less than two actions that had been both build-up, probability creation or a shot per 90 minutes. The opposite was Bukayo Saka, with Odegaard understandably registering larger numbers in build-up and probability creation.
Artwork de Roche
I agree with Artwork. Metropolis have proved they’ll get by with out De Bruyne mainly each time he has been injured, going again years. Given his high quality, that’s fairly an achievement. He missed a variety of 2018-19, fairly a little bit of 2020-21 and half of final season, and Metropolis gained the title in all three years anyway. They’ve at all times had the gamers, or tactical tweaks, that imply they’ll greater than make up for De Bruyne’s absence. In 2018-19, it was Bernardo Silva working from the center, two years later they embraced the false-nine system which concerned Bernardo and Ilkay Gundogan pinging the ball round for enjoyable, and final 12 months they only sort of received by in a wide range of methods, with no specific stand-out substitute. Then again, Odegaard is considered one of Arsenal’s (and the Premier League’s) finest gamers, and they don’t have equal squad depth.
Sam Lee
(Michael Regan/Getty Pictures)
I’ll play satan’s advocate. Metropolis have scored 17 objectives towards Arteta’s Arsenal within the Premier League; De Bruyne has had a hand in six of them, regardless of enjoying round 54 per cent of the overall minutes. His affect on this usually title-tilting fixture is unparalleled, and Metropolis will clearly miss his medical edge in video games corresponding to this. He has began the season in dominant kind too, second solely to Dwight McNeil of Everton for probabilities created, whereas his 162 passes within the attacking third places him 65 away from some other participant within the division.
The argument that Metropolis are extra outfitted to take care of De Bruyne’s absence is truthful, however there may be no one fairly just like the Belgian for blowing video games like this vast open, and given Arsenal’s current solidity, the defending champions may miss that spark.
Thom Harris
(High pictures: Getty Pictures)
