Mandel’s Mailbag: Placing the CFP first-round blowouts in perspective

Roughly 92 % of your questions this week may very well be summed up by this: HELP! THE GAMES WERE ALL BLOWOUTS! WHAT DO WE DO??

I’ll get to these questions in a second, however first, some perspective.

Observe: Submitted questions have been flippantly edited for size and readability. 

Has everybody in school soccer forgotten that 21 of the 30 four-team CFP video games have been determined by two or extra scores? — Brian, Mt. Nice, Mich.

Both it’s collective amnesia, or there’s a frankly unimaginable expectation that the committee holds the flexibility to make sure the video games are entertaining. This isn’t the case in any sport, even the NFL, a league constructed particularly to advertise parity and whose postseason area is chosen in a completely goal method. In reality, simply final season, 5 of the six wild-card video games have been determined by at the least two touchdowns.

It occurred within the four-team CFP, too, although in concept there shouldn’t be that huge of a spot between No. 1 and No. 4. In 2018, Alabama and Clemson have been each 14-0, the undisputed high groups within the nation, and but Tigers gained their title-game matchup 44-16. A 12 months later, No. 1 seed LSU beat No. 4 seed Oklahoma 63-28. And there had been zero debate whether or not the 12-1 Sooners must be the fourth seed.

Right here’s the excellent news: Within the outdated system, we’d wait a month for these two semifinal video games solely to get let down after they weren’t aggressive. Now, you solely have to attend 10 days to (hopefully) take pleasure in some higher video games within the quarterfinals.

Onward.

How a lot did dropping one whole convention change the intent of the 12-team mannequin rewarding convention champions? — John B.

This! A hundred percent, this!

So lots of the hottest gripes with this 12 months’s bracket are rooted in realignment. It was first unveiled in June 2021, a bit of greater than a month earlier than the SEC took Oklahoma and Texas and touched off the chain of dominoes that led to there being 4, not 5, energy conferences, every with at the least 16 groups and one as huge as 18.

The concept of reserving first-round byes for the 4 highest-ranked champs made extra sense once we nonetheless had the Energy 5. Now it’s the Energy 2 and two others, which this 12 months led to a weird bracket wherein the No. 3 staff (Texas) performed final weekend whereas the No. 9 (Boise State) and No. 12 (Arizona State) groups rested up. And now, the No. 1 (Oregon) and No. 2 (Georgia) seeds have more durable quarterfinal video games than the No. 5 (Texas) and No. 6 (Penn State) seeds.

My guess is this can go bye-bye (see what I did there) in 2026, the primary 12 months of the following contract.

In the meantime, mega-conferences have considerably impacted the choice course of. Have been this final 12 months, Indiana of the Huge Ten East would have performed each Ohio State and Penn State, and it could be a lot clearer whether or not the Hoosiers belonged. SMU would have been in both the ACC’s Atlantic Division, and wanted to beat Clemson to get to the title recreation, or the Coastal, the place it could have confronted a top-15 Miami staff. Because it was, the Mustangs missed each these groups plus 9-3 Syracuse.

As I’ve stated beforehand, I didn’t have an issue with Indiana and SMU making it as a result of the 9-3 SEC groups have been flawed. And SMU successfully boxed out Miami.

However going ahead, the committee must rigorously scrutinize groups’ convention schedules and never default to 11-1 is healthier than 10-2.

After seeing the first-round blowouts, is it doable that 12 groups are an excessive amount of? If we proceed to have blowouts in spherical one, can we return to eight? — Michael J.

Once more, as beforehand talked about, there have been numerous blowouts when it was 4. Additionally, no Playoff system I do know of has ever contracted.

It’s price remembering why we skipped from 4 to 12 within the first place: Any modifications to the preliminary 12-year CFP contract needed to be unanimous. The ACC, Huge 12 and Pac-12 have been solely going to assist an eight-team Playoff that had computerized berths for convention champions, whereas the SEC and sure the Huge Ten would have solely authorised a area of the perfect eight groups, interval.

Therefore, the compromise: twelve groups, with rewards for convention champions but additionally sufficient at-large berths for the SEC to get 4 or 5 groups in.

It’s additionally price remembering why they expanded the Playoff in any respect. It wasn’t as a result of they felt there have been eight or 12 groups able to successful the nationwide championship. There aren’t.

It’s as a result of have been this the outdated system, you’d have spent Dec. 21 watching the Treatment Bowl and the New Mexico Bowl. Notre Dame-Indiana would have been an everyday Fiesta Bowl, not a CFP recreation in South Bend, and all of the groups’ greatest gamers would have opted out of it. Boise State would have performed in an everyday New Yr’s Six bowl in opposition to a disinterested opponent.

So no, I don’t see us going again in time.

I feel on-campus Playoff video games are the best factor I’ve ever seen in school soccer. What are the possibilities we’ll ever see the quarterfinals and even the semifinals moved to campus websites? — Mike from Indianapolis

It’s inevitable that the quarters will transfer to campus websites, however you may need to attend for eight years.

Earlier this 12 months, the CFP and ESPN agreed to a six-year extension by way of the 2031 season, and the commissioners dedicated to proceed with bowls internet hosting each quarters and semis. Observe: The official contract has not but been finalized, so it’s doable there may very well be an Eleventh-hour change of coronary heart, however it could be very un-CFP-like. It took them two-and-a-half years simply to plot this format and one other 15 months after that to get it authorised.

Additionally, given the foremost bowls depend on tens of 1000’s of followers to journey, they actually need to keep up that New Yr’s date. The upcoming Rose, Sugar, Fiesta and Peach bowls are all anticipated to promote out, helped by the very fact final week’s winners — Penn State, Notre Dame, Texas and Ohio State — all have huge fan bases. I’ve a sense this subject will briefly fade when individuals tune in on Dec. 31/Jan. 1 and do not forget that we like bowl video games, too.

However then it should come again once we get the Jan. 9 and 10 Orange/Cotton semifinals, which, relying on which groups make it, could also be a lot much less attended.

Any dialogue about the place to carry the video games must be accompanied by a dialogue about when. I’ll proceed on my soapbox that the season must shift every week earlier to keep away from the Playoff dragging out till Jan. 20. The primary spherical and quarterfinals must be performed the second and third weekends in December, each on campus. Then the New Yr’s semifinals and the title recreation every week later would each be hosted by New Yr’s Six bowls.

Ebook it. For 2032.

Once you picked SMU to beat Penn State, had you watched both staff all 12 months? Both convention all 12 months? Did you’ve an aneurysm? What is occurring? — Andrew B.

Not my best prognostication second. I didn’t be ok with any of the underdogs’ probabilities, however figured there could be at the least one upset so went with that one.

Turned out I mustn’t have caught that my preliminary intuition.

Is it me, or has Kirk Herbstreit’s bizarre beef with Ohio State followers turned unprofessional? Doesn’t he have a duty to only name the sport straight like he does the NFL video games? His rants about crowd dimension and the “lunatic fringe” and many others. simply went on and on in a recreation the Buckeyes have been dominating. It’s change into bizarre and distracting. — Amrabin

I’ve immense respect for Herbstreit as an analyst, however he’s been coming off as more and more condescending currently.

Ohio State followers are hardly the primary within the historical past of the game to name for a profitable coach’s head. It comes with the territory. And the blokes on “First Take” have been hardly the one media pundits suggesting Ryan Day ought to/may very well be fired after the Michigan loss. I stated I didn’t see how he might return if the Buckeyes adopted it up by dropping within the first spherical. And that’s as a result of it was waaaaaaaay greater than Kirk’s lunatic fringe estimate of “15 to twenty %” of OSU followers that may have needed Day’s head in that state of affairs.

Chris Fowler chimed in, too, saying, “Once you hear pundits on this community and different locations speaking about (Day’s firing) with certainty, it’s nonsense, frankly. The general public doesn’t set off and do away with the coach, directors do.” The broadcasters get appreciable entry behind the scenes, so Fowler’s evaluation was doubtless primarily based on knowledgeable conversations. However to counsel the general public has no affect in these selections? I recall the opposite fan base in attendance Saturday evening getting a coach (Greg Schiano) fired earlier than he even began the job.

Herbstreit clearly has a historical past with Ohio State’s lunatics, having famously relocated his household from Columbus to Nashville as a result of he was uninterested in coping with them. His son, Zak, is a participant on Day’s staff. And on Pat McAfee’s present Monday, he stated, “My downside is, I’m a pal of Ryan Day’s. He and I speak regularly about extra than simply soccer.” He then talked about particular threats Day’s household has acquired over the Michigan losses. Which is horrific and inexcusable, but additionally doubtless a tiny fraction of followers. Manner smaller than 15 to twenty %.

In Herbstreit’s protection, he’s working tougher than anybody within the enterprise this season. This previous week, he referred to as the Broncos-Chargers recreation in L.A. on Thursday evening, did 4 hours of “GameDay” within the bitter chilly at Notre Dame on Friday afternoon, one other three hours in Columbus within the bitter chilly Saturday morning, then referred to as the Tennessee-Ohio State recreation that evening.

In fact, which may additionally clarify the crankiness.

After Notre Dame beats Georgia, have they got to win out to get the respect they deserve or will sanity prevail? — Mike F.

They’ll actually get my respect. It might be Notre Dame’s greatest postseason win in additional than 30 years, and it could come in opposition to the game’s strongest program of the previous 5 years.

However you possibly can already predict the response from our pals within the South. Doesn’t rely, Georgia didn’t have its quarterback.

What do you consider Texas Tech dominating the switch portal? How sustainable is that, and is a Huge 12 title a sensible purpose for 2025? — Andrew G., Houston

I feel it’s superior. For all of the complaints, NIL and the switch portal have one overwhelmingly optimistic impact on the game: It’s permitting non-traditional packages to change into nationally related. Ole Miss signed the top-ranked switch class on 247Sports final 12 months, and now Texas Tech is on high within the early levels this 12 months. It’s change into a refreshing antidote to highschool recruiting, the place the identical small group of bluebloods dominate the market yearly. And that’s as a result of collectives are spending far extra money on transfers than highschool youngsters.

The important thing in fact is, at the least underneath the present mannequin, you want donors keen to foot the invoice. Texas Tech undoubtedly has them. As Justin Williams and I wrote about final summer season, the co-founder of their collective and his spouse, a former Tech softball participant, gave $1 million to woo Stanford softball ace NiJaree Canady. Huge will get in soccer to this point embody Georgia Tech edge-rusher Romello Peak, USC’s breakout freshman working again Quinten Joyner and UCF All-Huge 12 defensive lineman Lee Hunter. Whereas no greenback quantities have been disclosed, confirmed pass-rushers are normally a number of the most costly guys.

I do not know whether or not the Pink Raiders will contend within the Huge 12. You noticed this previous season how troublesome it’s to forecast such a flattened convention. Texas Tech had a promising 8-4 common season wherein it beat each of the groups that went onto the convention title recreation — Arizona State and Iowa State — and beginning quarterback Behren Morton is predicted to return.

Going into the upcoming Liberty Bowl in opposition to Arkansas, Joey McGuire’s three-season file is 23-15. That will appear modest, nevertheless it’s really the best successful share (.605) of any Tech coach since Mike Leach’s 2009 ouster. However expectations will probably be greater in 2025 after this spending spree.

The primary-round “house staff” ought to break up the ticket allocation 50/50 to permit the visiting staff’s “fan base” a possibility to see their staff play!! — Nameless U.

Nice thought. Nearly like a … bowl recreation.

Is that this 12 months’s switch portal NIL spending going to be loopy because it’s the final time they will spend unchecked earlier than the Home settlement and offers should be vetted to be “honest market worth?” — Tim S.

I don’t suppose many of us within the NIL world consider the third-party “honest market worth” vetting will probably be something greater than further paperwork to fill out, at the least on the a part of the collectives. They’ve legal professionals who can advise them on the way to phrase a contract to satisfy no matter necessities this settlement has.

A extra related issue, although, is that IF the settlement is authorised, that’s $20.5 million a 12 months in NIL cash that not falls on donors. It’s supposed to return from colleges’ TV offers, ticket gross sales and sponsorships. So in case you’re a booster who figures his dues are going to take a substantial dip a 12 months from now maybe you go all on this 12 months.

However I feel colleges are kidding themselves in the event that they suppose collectives will go poof as soon as income sharing kicks in. That $20.5 million cap is for the whole athletic division to divvy up because it sees match. Even when soccer will get three-quarters of that, it’s nonetheless lower than Ohio State is spending on its roster this 12 months, and never rather more than many of the different elite packages. And similar to coaches’ salaries over time, gamers’ NIL offers are solely going to maintain going up and up. This implies they’ll nonetheless want collectives to lift cash on high of the $20.5 million.

Consider it this manner: Ohio State and Michigan are in direct competitors for a similar pool of expertise, however each could have the identical “wage cap” on this settlement. Do you suppose one or the opposite goes to take a seat again and let the opposite one spend greater than them on gamers? In fact not. Ohio State’s collective will attain out to its donors for a bit of one thing to land the following Caleb Downs and Quinshon Judkins, and Michigan will probably be hitting up Larry Ellison’s spouse for an additional verify come the following Bryce Underwood.

What a very wise system that is.

Would Alabama have given Penn State or Notre Dame a greater recreation than SMU or Indiana? — Mia-Do’ A.

Uncertain. They couldn’t even beat Tennessee.

Have an important vacation, everyone. Fast programming word: As a result of the quarterfinals fall on a Tuesday and Wednesday, the following Mailbag will run on Friday, January 3.

On that word: Joyful early New Yr’s!

(Prime picture: Matthew O’Haren / Imagn Photographs)