Making robust lineup choices every week may be essentially the most difficult a part of the fantasy soccer course of.
My weekly matchup rankings present a schedule-independent methodology to judge positional matchups, itemizing all 32 opposing defenses so as of most to least favorable for opposing gamers in any respect 4 ability positions (quarterback, working again, extensive receiver and tight finish). As a substitute of counting on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed information to indicate how every protection fared relative to the problem of the schedule it has confronted. This gives a fairer method to judging the standard of particular person matchups.
“Adj. FPA,” or adjusted fantasy factors allowed, displays how far above or under gamers’ weekly PPR fantasy level averages that protection held opponents at that place. A constructive quantity means the matchup is favorable; a unfavourable quantity means it’s unfavorable. Moreover, bear in mind groups usually use a number of working backs and extensive receivers in a sport, and these plus/minus averages cowl all of a crew’s personnel at that place.
Lastly, a caveat: Matchups are solely one ingredient in my rankings method. Not each favorable matchup ought to be exploited, nor each unfavorable matchup prevented. If you need my — and the ESPN fantasy workers’s — most full supply for whom to begin and sit every week, seek the advice of our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy factors are for PPR scoring until in any other case famous.
Quarterbacks
1:07
What sort of fantasy worth does Matthew Stafford have going ahead?
Stephania Bell, Area Yates and Daniel Dopp react to Matthew Stafford’s large fantasy sport vs. the Patriots.
Matchups spotlight: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers (versus Baltimore Ravens). He has been each the quintessential hot-hand and matchups dynamo of late, averaging 21.9 fantasy factors throughout the previous 4 weeks with the newest sport, which got here towards the Thirtieth-ranked Cincinnati Bengals, his high-water mark for the season (24.38). Herbert, who tried 36 passes in that sport and has exceeded 30 in 4 of his previous six, will once more be tasked with airing it out on Monday Night time Soccer towards the Ravens, who’ve an ideal-for-fantasy mixture of a horrible go protection and a loaded offense which will increase pass-heavy sport play. Certain, Russell Wilson struggled towards them final week, however the Ravens have nonetheless surrendered a 23-point sport or higher to a few of the previous 5 quarterbacks they’ve confronted.
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Matchup to keep away from: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams (versus Philadelphia Eagles). He has been way more productive for the reason that wholesome returns of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, averaging 20.1 fantasy factors throughout the previous 4 weeks, however has nonetheless exhibited a troubling sample of poor efficiency towards more durable defenses this season. In two video games with Kupp and Nacua that got here towards bottom-eight quarterback matchups — utilizing seasonal Adjusted Fantasy Factors Added information moderately than previous 5 weeks — Stafford averaged 12.2 factors, and in two during which each had been absent, he averaged 8.9. The Eagles have loved some of the important turnarounds defending quarterbacks of any crew this season, permitting just one to exceed 20 factors in a sport and one to attain 15-plus in six video games for the reason that bye.
Operating backs
Matchups spotlight: Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants (versus Tampa Bay Buccaneers). Tommy DeVito’s set up as Giants beginning quarterback would be the storyline of this sport, no less than on their facet of issues, however Tracy would possibly properly be essentially the most intriguing fantasy play contemplating the matchups. Tracy has clearly taken maintain of the backfield, taking part in 69% of the offensive snaps and averaging 15.0 carries to Devin Singletary’s 28% and 5.5 the previous 4 weeks, however way more importantly to this sport, Tracy has averaged 18.3 routes to Singletary’s 6.5. Along with the Buccaneers ranking the second-best matchup for working backs throughout the previous 5 weeks, they’ve allowed a second-most 2.55 PPR fantasy factors per goal to the place in that point. Contemplating the unfold (5 ½ factors getting into the week, count on Tracy to play a extra significant position within the passing sport along with his regular dashing exploits.
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Matchup to keep away from: Chuba Hubbard, Carolina (versus Chiefs). The week has arrived for rookie Jonathon Brooks to make his NFL debut, and whereas he’ll initially slide into the backup position rather than Miles Sanders (ankle, week-to-week), it is unsure to what extent he’ll minimize into Hubbard’s workload. Compounding issues is that this matchup, the hardest for working backs all season. Just one working again has scored as many as 14 PPR fantasy factors in a sport towards the Chiefs, James Prepare dinner (19.7) this previous week, and that was largely fueled by his receiving a pair of goal-to-go carries (each of which he transformed). Amongst these held beneath 14, by the best way, are three of the 4 best-scoring working backs for the season.
Broad receivers
1:16
Area Yates: CeeDee Lamb is the one Cowboy value beginning in fantasy
Area Yates blasts the Cowboys’ offense, saying CeeDee Lamb is the one fantasy participant value beginning, as a result of quantity.
Matchups spotlight: Quentin Johnston, Chargers (versus Ravens). He has capitalized upon above-average-to-excellent matchups every of the previous three weeks, to the tune of a 15.1 PPR fantasy level common, and this is top-of-the-line ones he’ll face but. The Ravens have seen 5 totally different extensive receivers rating 16-plus factors and one other two rating 12-plus the previous 5 weeks, together with a mean of 31.9 to opponents’ high perimeter receivers (as Johnston is). As alluded to with Herbert above, the Chargers will presumably be throwing ceaselessly on this sport, and Johnston has a wholesome 19.5% goal share the previous three weeks. There is a good likelihood he’ll see 7-9 targets, and this protection has surrendered 1.83 factors per goal to the place this yr.
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Matchup to keep away from: CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys (at Commanders). Dak Prescott’s season-ending hamstring harm hasn’t brought about Lamb’s fantasy manufacturing to crater, however it has undoubtedly had an adversarial impression. After averaging 17.6 PPR fantasy factors per sport and 1.66 per goal in his first eight video games, Lamb has averaged 12.7 and 1.21 in these classes in Cooper Rush’s two begins. Worse but, requires Trey Lance to get an opportunity at quarterback solely heighten issues about Lamb’s fantasy inventory. This matchup would not assist issues, as just one extensive receiver has exceeded 15 factors towards the Commanders previously 5 weeks (George Pickens, 20.5 in Week 10).
Tight ends
Matchups spotlight: Hunter Henry, Patriots (at Dolphins). His targets have been on the rise of late, as previously 5 weeks, he has a 21.8% goal share, up from 18.3% within the season’s first 5 video games. That is the type of workload fantasy managers need to see from a decent finish, particularly with as favorable a matchup as this upcoming. The Dolphins have afforded the place 20.5 factors per sport the previous 4 weeks alone, fifth-most within the league, and whereas a variety of that got here from a pair of top-shelf tight ends (Brock Bowers, Trey McBride), additionally they surrendered a mixed 14.4 factors to Dalton Kincaid and Quintin Morris in Week 9 and eight.4 factors to Davis Allen in Week 10.
Matchup to keep away from: Mark Andrews, Ravens (at Chargers). Although he has restored his fantasy TE1 standing over the previous six weeks, throughout which period his 13.0 PPR fantasy factors per sport common ranks eighth-best on the place, this is not one in all his higher matchups. After he scored solely 4.2 factors towards the seventh-ranked Steelers in Week 11, he is now going through the top-ranked Chargers, a protection that has seen just one tight finish exceed 12 factors all season (Travis Kelce, Week 4). For the season, the Chargers’ 1.31 factors per goal common afforded the place is the league’s fewest.
