Politics
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November 5, 2024
Everybody’s favourite wonk Josh Cohen tells us what he’ll be expecting when the polls shut tonight.
Final week, Josh Cohen—a daily contributor to The Nation, the writer of the Ettingermentum e-newsletter, and the left’s favourite information wonk—was a visitor on The Nation’s election podcast, See How They Run. You’ll be able to hearken to the total episode right here.
In the present day, we’re sharing an edited excerpt of that dialog, wherein Cohen advised Nation editor D.D. Guttenplan concerning the particular states and counties he’ll be keeping track of when the polls shut on Tuesday night time to get a way of who will win the presidency.
What are a number of the races you’re trying on the most this cycle?
I believe that the congressional races, particularly the Senate races, have been a number of the most fascinating and attention-grabbing and ignored contests this complete yr. You’ve got seen Democrats placing up very, very, very sturdy polling numbers. Republicans in these races are [running behind] Trump considerably in lots of instances. So there’s a clear inhabitants of people who find themselves open to voting for Trump however are additionally not bought on the Republican Occasion at giant and are additionally planning to vote for Democratic Senate candidates.
What are the locations you’re going to be searching for immediately after the polls shut as potential indicators of how the general race goes to go?
I might inform individuals to not actually pay a lot consideration to Florida. It will get lots of consideration early on as a result of the polls shut very early there and it counts the votes very quick, but it surely’s a really distinctive state. In 2020, it was one of many few states that swung out proper in the direction of Trump. That gave the impression to be an indication that he was doing nicely nationally. It was extra of an indication that he was doing nicely in states like Florida—[and there] are virtually no different states within the nation which are like Florida.
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Central Indiana and jap Kentucky shut their polls at 6 pm ET. Neither of these states are too aggressive. However there’s one county in Indiana which may be value keeping track of very, very early, referred to as Hamilton County.
It’s a suburb of Indianapolis and is a traditionally very, very sturdy suburban Republican county. I believe it’s voted Republican practically each election in 100 years—simply a type of basic Yankee Northern Republican areas that simply at all times caught with the occasion it doesn’t matter what. Nevertheless it’s very well-educated, comparatively prosperous, and it swung rather a lot in the direction of Democrats. I believe it was solely inside a single-digit margin in 2020 when Biden made lots of positive factors within the suburbs. So it may be sort of seen as a metric for the way nicely Kamala Harris would do in these sorts of suburbs across the nation, which may actually like be an indication of whether or not she’s going to be on monitor to win or be on monitor to lose. [There are others] like Cobb County and Gwinnett County in Georgia, the county surrounding Detroit—
The collar counties round Philadelphia.
Yeah. Montgomery County, Bucks County. Or Maricopa County in Arizona, which is basically simply the entire metropolis of Phoenix, however has began to behave like a suburban county lately.
If she runs even with Biden’s efficiency, I don’t know if it could essentially be a constructive signal for her. It could be an indication that she’s in all probability on monitor to create the same coalition, however she would possibly wish to outrun him a little bit bit as a result of with the way in which tendencies are going, Trump will in all probability improve the assist in rural areas and Democrats might want to improve their assist in suburban areas to account for that. So if it’s a really shut race there in Hamilton County, I believe that that’ll be an indication that Kamala goes to get a surge within the suburbs that may put her able to win within the states that matter. If she outright wins it, I believe that may be an excellent signal for her.
In order that’ll be a spot actually value preserving your eye on, as a result of it’s so consultant of those sorts of locations that matter a lot in these states across the nation. There’s a congressional district in northern Indiana round Gary that does type of characterize how Democrats could also be doing in working-class areas. And if Democrats are doing very poorly, they’re liable to shedding the seat. That may very well be an indication of a possible crimson wave.
What are another states you’re going to be watching?
Georgia closes very early [at 7 pm ET] and that’s my house state. So I like taking note of it. Virginia additionally closes on the similar time. Their suburban counties rely a bit late, so they may not be capable to inform us a lot. North Carolina additionally closes early [at 7:30 pm ET]. Georgia and North Carolina might be very, essential states. These are locations the place Trump’s numbers have wavered a little bit bit in latest weeks. They’re must-win states for him. He must win these to be within the place the place he can win if he simply knocks out one of many three Midwestern states.
Within the final couple of elections, there was lots of speak concerning the Electoral Faculty—about the way it’s skewed in the direction of Republicans, about how unfair it’s. However you’re not seeing a lot discuss that this time. Is that as a result of Trump would possibly really win the favored vote and lose the Electoral Faculty?
Persons are extra attuned to it than possibly how probably it’s, but it surely does characterize a pattern that might occur. [Trump] may find yourself solely successful the favored vote by a small quantity however nonetheless successful the Electoral Faculty as a result of he may make lots of positive factors in states that don’t matter—locations like California or New York, the place the query of abortion is rather a lot much less salient and voters are extra inclined to make a protest vote in opposition to native Democratic management, who they’re not too keen on. That would web Trump thousands and thousands of votes that don’t actually find yourself gaining him a single electoral vote.
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He may achieve lots of votes in rural areas within the Deep South, however outdoors of Georgia, that’s probably not going to make an excessive amount of of an influence on the Electoral Faculty. He may win Alabama or Mississippi by much more than he did in 2020.
If Trump winds up getting thousands and thousands extra votes in locations like New York and California, that’s an enormous drawback, as a result of he’s going to contest any election outcomes that don’t go his manner.
Even when it’s a results of completely reputable stuff, simply voters in these swing states being extra mobilized, it would look a little bit suspicious if Trump occurs to achieve all over the place besides within the states that matter. These Republicans are keen to scrape round for actually any proof they will should say that the elections are faked.
OK, so are you keen to make a prediction?
I personally would fairly be Harris proper now. I believe that lots of the indicators we’re seeing level in the direction of her occasion having power. A number of the warning indicators that we would’ve seen in 2020 that confirmed the polls had been off in a manner that may harm her occasion don’t exist.
The early voting, I don’t assume tells us a lot someway, so I’m not keen to go an excessive amount of off of that. There are credible causes for me to consider that the pollsters possibly put their thumb on the size to make Trump look a little bit stronger than he would possibly really be. [But]the polling remains to be barely tilted in her favor, even with that taking place.
OK, and right here’s my final query. When do you assume we’ll know who’s gained this race?
I believe we may know comparatively early, even when it’s an in depth race, except it comes inside a pair hundred votes. After 2020, [states have] made lots of adjustments that enable them to rely their votes in a short time. Georgia, for example, may have most of its votes counted by election night time. We’ll get a way of what that’ll appear to be, I believe, earlier than midnight. States like Michigan additionally solid their votes quick. Pennsylvania, I believe, counts votes shortly now. Arizona and Nevada are nonetheless sort of gradual.
So if the race comes right down to them, issues may nonetheless be up within the air for some time. However I believe we are going to know earlier than we did in 2020. I don’t assume it’ll take the entire week.
Can we rely on you?
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