MEXICO CITY — The election of Donald Trump — whose marketing campaign featured incendiary proposals on tariffs, immigration and combating drug trafficking — is sending shock waves by means of Mexico, a nation with shut financial, social and cultural ties to its northern neighbor.
The president-elect’s vows to impose steep taxes on items imported from Mexico — as much as 100% or extra on autos — is seen as a profound menace in a nation closely depending on commerce with america.
“It’s a catastrophe,” Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid, an economics professor on the Nationwide Autonomous College of Mexico, stated of Trump’s election. “I imply, it couldn’t be worse.”
Mexico’s financial system — pushed nearly solely by commerce, with greater than 80% of exports despatched north of the border — is already getting ready to recession after years of sluggish progress, stated Moreno-Brid.
Donald Trump visits the border wall in Sierra Vista, Ariz., this summer time with Paul Perez, president of the Nationwide Border Patrol Council. Trump has vowed to deport tens of millions of immigrants within the U.S. illegally, lots of them Mexican nationals.
(Evan Vucci / Related Press)
The peso slumped to a two-year low Wednesday in opposition to the greenback amid fears that Trump will observe by means of on his tariff pronouncements.
“We must always take significantly the threats and guarantees of Trump,” Martha Bárcena, a former Mexican ambassador to Washington, wrote Wednesday on the social media platform X. “It’s not simply marketing campaign rhetoric.”
Economists had warned that even a small rise in tariffs on Mexico’s items might result in extra unemployment and poverty, doubtlessly main extra folks emigrate to america.
“We’re already at a really fragile level. Now Trump is coming to hit us some extra,” Moreno-Brid stated. “ We actually, actually, didn’t want this.”
The landmark United States-Mexico-Canada Settlement — which changed the North American Free Commerce Settlement through the first Trump administration — is up for overview in 2026. What revisions Trump will search stay unclear, however the multitrillion-dollar accord is pivotal to Mexico’s financial system.
In 2018, then-President Trump sits between Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, proper, and Mexico’s then-President Enrique Peña Nieto after they signed a United States-Mexico-Canada Settlement.
(Related Press)
The hope amongst many in Mexico is that, as soon as in workplace, Trump’s actions will show much less harsh than his marketing campaign bombast. Eight years in the past, Trump launched his election bid denouncing Mexican immigrants as criminals and “rapists,” however later developed an in depth working relationship with Andrés Manuel López Obrador when the leftist gained the presidency. The 2 males referred to one another as pals.
Mexico’s new president, Claudia Sheinbaum, on Wednesday aimed to downplay worries. “There’s no purpose to be anxious,” Sheinbaum, López Obrador’s successor, informed reporters. “There’s going to be dialogue.”
The 2 nations have carefully built-in provide chains that, consultants say, might put a brake on Trump’s provocative tariff plans. U.S. corporations have possession management or different monetary stakes in lots of Mexican manufacturing companies.
“In financial issues, pragmatism dominates United States’ pursuits,” columnist Kimberly Armengol wrote Wednesday in Mexico’s Excélsior newspaper. “The pursuits of america with respect to Mexico transcend celebration divisions.”
Two-way commerce between america and Mexico topped $800 billion final 12 months, based on U.S. figures, making Mexico america’ main commerce accomplice.
Vehicles cross the Paso del Norte worldwide bridge on the U.S.-Mexico border, from Ciudad Juarez, Mexico, on Wednesday.
(Christian Chavez / Related Press)
“We’re going to preserve working in a vital method with enterprise leaders in Mexico and people in america, who’ve their investments in Mexico,” stated Sheinbaum. “On this case there are not any variations — quite the opposite there’s a variety of unity to strengthen the nationwide financial system.”
Trump has instructed that tariffs would even be a part of his technique to crack down on drug trafficking.
“We’ll instantly cease the medicine pouring throughout our border,” Trump informed a crowd Monday in Pittsburgh. “Each rattling factor that they promote into america goes to have like a 25% [tariff], till they cease medicine from coming in. And let me let you know one thing, these medicine will cease so rattling quick that your head will spin.”
As well as, Trump has raised the potential of deploying the U.S. army to take down Mexican drug cartels — a notion broadly rejected in a nation that has suffered a number of historic invasions from the north. Many in Mexico don’t take the army deployment thought significantly.
“He’s saying that simply to make noise,” stated Alejandro Vázquez, a bookseller in Mexico Metropolis who was requested about Trump’s plans. “It’s a publicity stunt.”
On immigration, Trump has made it clear that he’ll transfer to curtail pathways to migration, possible scrapping the CBP One smartphone app. That program has allowed greater than 800,000 asylum seekers from throughout the globe to enter america with provisional standing after interviews at U.S. border posts.
Additionally possible on the chopping block within the new Trump administration is a humanitarian parole program that Biden put in place for residents of Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua and Venezuela, in addition to a program that permits Central American youngsters to hunt refugee standing in america, based on Adam Isacson, a border researcher on the Washington Workplace on Latin America, a suppose tank.
Trump may additionally use the specter of tariffs to revive the Stay in Mexico program, which required asylum seekers to remain in Mexico till their dates in U.S. immigration courts.
Some observers have predicted an upsurge in migration within the coming months. This week, greater than 2,000 migrants launched a northbound “caravan” from Mexico’s southern metropolis of Tapachula.
“We will anticipate a rise in migration over the following few months as folks search to get to U.S. soil earlier than the brand new administration begins closing down present pathways,” Isacson stated.
Migrants depart Tapachula, Mexico, on Tuesday in hopes of reaching the nation’s northern border and in the end america.
(Moises Castillo / Related Press)
Meantime, many in Mexico have been anxious about Trump’s vows to deport tens of millions of immigrants within the U.S. illegally, lots of them Mexican nationals.
“Trump can do no matter he needs now. He has all of the assist he wants” stated Irineo Mujica, who heads Individuals With out Borders, a migrant advocacy group. “Migrants are going to be operating to the border to get in earlier than Trump takes over.”
Other than the humanitarian toll, mass deportations might devastate the Mexican financial system: Every year, immigrants in america ship some $60 billion again to relations and others in Mexico. These remittances symbolize a pillar of the Mexican financial system.
“He can’t ship all of the Mexicans again from america, can he?” requested Emi Pérez, a avenue vendor within the capital. “Who’s going to do all of the work in america if there are not any Mexicans?”
Particular correspondent Cecilia Sánchez Vidal contributed to this report.
