Might this be the following nice comet? To make certain, these phrases have been stated a number of instances earlier than. In a clockwork sky, how comets will carry out is at all times the good wildcard. Comets from Kohoutek to ISON have didn’t dwell as much as expectations, whereas others like W3 Lovejoy took us all abruptly. However a discovery this previous weekend has message boards abuzz, as an incoming sungrazer may placed on a present proper round Halloween.
Anatomy of a Sungrazer
The invention involves us from the prolific Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Final Alert System (ATLAS), which first noticed the comet on the night time of September 27th. The preliminary designation of the comet was A11bP7I. The comet now has an official designation: C/2024 S1 ATLAS. This was introduced on October 1st, within the Worldwide Astronomical Union’s Central Bureau for Astronomical Telegram’s message 5453.
The extremely eccentric hyperbolic orbit of the comet suggests it’s a member of the Kreutz household group of sungrazer comets. Most of those comets are doomed for destruction at perihelion, however there have been just a few exceptions through the years. These sungrazers which have survived have gone on to develop into nice comets.
Might C/2024 S1 ATLAS do the identical?
Comet Caveats
Now, just a few caveats are so as. Astronomers discovered S1 ATLAS at +12th magnitude, 1.094 Astronomical Models (AU) from the Solar. It may nicely be the case that it merely had an outburst proper when it was first noticed, and will in actual fact be smaller and fewer energetic than it appears. What we’d like are extra observations over the following few weeks.
“It’s early days, so I believe the prudent method is to average our expectations after which be ‘pleasantly stunned’ later,” astronomer Karl Battams (U.S. Naval Analysis Laboratory) advised Universe Right this moment. “That stated, there’s clearly the potential for this to be a really thrilling comet. One of the best analog now we have is comet Lovejoy in 2011, which was found simply a few weeks from perihelion, versus this one which is almost a month away.”
The comet reaches perihelion on October 28th, 0.0082 AU from the Solar. That’s 762,600 miles from photo voltaic middle, simply 330,600 miles from the floor of the Solar. The photo voltaic radius is about 432,000 miles. As at all times appears to be the case, southern hemisphere observers will get a greater view of the comet main as much as perihelion in mid-October because it approaches the Solar via the constellation Hydra. The comet might be seen low to the east at daybreak, and ‘may’ break +6th magnitude within the closing week of October. The comet passes 0.306 AU from the Earth on October 23rd after which, issues may begin to get fascinating.
Prospects for Sungrazer A1 ATLAS
As of penning this, finest estimates for peak magnitudes for comet S1 ATLAS prime out at -7—suppose a vivid daytime comet, however very near the Solar—although -1st magnitude or so might be extra conservative.
Northern hemisphere viewers would possibly get finest views of the comet low to the east at daybreak after perihelion… if it survives.
“This Kreutz-group comet received’t go fairly as near the Solar as W3 Lovejoy, so it’s not unreasonable to guess that it’ll assist its survival potential.” Says Battams. “Assuming so, it is perhaps briefly seen to northern hemisphere observers very low within the early morning (in) southeast skies after perihelion, however it could require good viewing circumstances (a transparent, low horizon)… and received’t cling round there for lengthy.”
The comet enters the Photo voltaic Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO’s) LASCO C2/C3 discipline of view on October 26th, and exits on the 29th. It’s unusual to suppose: previous to SOHO’s launch in 1995, astronomers knew of lower than a handful of sungrazer comets. Now, because of the mission, we all know of 5,065 sungrazing comets and counting.
New sticky: I not often tweet lately, primarily b/c a lot of the enjoyable individuals have left. ? However I nonetheless pop in from time-to-time, and can publish about thrilling comet or Solar stuff.
As at all times, any photographs/knowledge I publish are from 100% public sources, and all opinions are solely mine. pic.twitter.com/OeQRia2ppU— Karl Battams (@SungrazerComets) October 2, 2024
Traditional Sungrazers of Yore
2011’s sungrazer W3 Lovejoy survived a passage simply 87,000 miles from the floor of the Solar… Comet ISON, nevertheless, didn’t survive a 0.001244 AU, 116,000 mile floor go at perihelion on U.S. Thanksgiving Day 2013.
Lengthy-time comet watchers will bear in mind sungrazer Ikeya-Seki, which survived a 280,000 mile go (just a bit over the Earth-Moon distance) from the floor of the Solar. That comet went on to dazzle observers in 1965.
“What I’ll say is that I’m very excited on the ‘prospect,’ and might be watching the evolution of this extraordinarily carefully over the following couple of weeks.” says Battams. “I believe by mid-October we’ll have the ability to state some information with much more certainty.”
It looks like good comets at all times are available in pairs…bear in mind Hale-Bopp and Hyakutake within the late 90s? We (lastly) caught sight of comet C/2023 A3 Tsuchinshan-ATLAS this morning from right here in Bristol, Tennessee, trying like a fuzzy ‘star’ with a brief tail within the brightening twilight low to the east, peeking out between pine timber.
We’re cautious for now in relation to S1 ATLAS. However bear in mind: comets by no means learn predictions… and S1 ATLAS may nicely shock us.
