Milton’s October shock

Hey, and welcome again to State of Emergency. I’m Jake Bittle, and right this moment we’re speaking concerning the political impression of Hurricane Milton, the second main storm to strike the USA in the previous few weeks.

I grew up in Tampa, Florida, lower than 20 miles inland from the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricanes have been by no means greater than an abstraction to me and my household, regardless of the storm-preparedness PSAs that aired on tv each June. When my household moved there from New England in 2007, it had been near a century since a big hurricane had hit the stretch of shoreline round Tampa.

That reprieve got here to an finish this yr. First, Hurricane Helene delivered a catastrophic storm surge to the barrier islands of St. Petersburg and Clearwater, after which Milton introduced one other dose of surge and wind, plus inland flooding in neighborhoods simply miles from the place I grew up. The second storm didn’t wipe out the town of Tampa the way in which some feared it’d — Florida Governor Ron DeSantis stated the day after that “this was not the worst-case situation” — however even this glancing blow was sufficient to do billions of {dollars} of injury to the area.

Florida Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna, a Republican representing lots of the worst-hit areas, gained her seat in 2022 on the power of an endorsement from former president Donald Trump. Since taking workplace, Luna, an election denier and member of the right-wing Freedom Caucus, has taken what may mildly be referred to as a combative method to the Biden administration on catastrophe points. Not solely did she vote final month towards further funding for FEMA’s catastrophe reduction fund, she has additionally fought the U.S. Military Corps of Engineers to loosen its guidelines for restoring the ever-eroding sand on St. Petersburg seashores; at one level, Luna prompt that the corps “must be defunded.”

However that was earlier than the storm, when the federal authorities was only a bogeyman off within the distance, and catastrophic hurricane injury was as summary for Luna because it was for me and my household once we lived in Florida. With Milton approaching, Luna modified her tune: She discovered her district in determined want of monetary help and assets from the Biden administration, which has far extra money for catastrophe response than the state of Florida or any native authorities. Because the storm neared landfall, she tweeted a plea to the Biden administration, saying, “We want FEMA DOLLARS FREE’D UP,” and earlier this week, she praised the administration’s response to the hurricane, telling Fox Information that Biden referred to as her immediately and met along with her in individual.

“I’ve clearly been very important of President Biden up to now, however I’ll say that him stepping in and taking management of the state of affairs to help for the appropriate causes was very actually form of stunning for me,” Luna instructed Fox Information, including that “so far as I’m seeing, FEMA has been very useful … they usually’re completely going to help, as a result of President Biden has instructed them to take action.”

For a lot of politicians, particularly conservative ones, criticizing the federal authorities is as obligatory a every day routine as brushing one’s enamel, and typically massive disasters can intensify that criticism. We’ve seen that occur with the push of right-wing conspiracy theories round Hurricane Helene.

The aftermath of Milton is exhibiting one other aspect to the story: For all its bureaucratic slowness and complexity, FEMA is the one entity giant sufficient to function a monetary backstop for the worst disasters, and as local weather change worsens, native and state governments will solely depend on it extra. Luna appears to have had that realization, nevertheless belated. Once you’re taking a look at debris-strewn seashores and flooded residence complexes, you strike a special tone when speaking concerning the individuals who can lower you a test.

There’s another potential motive for Luna’s about-face: She gained her seat in 2022 with simply 53 p.c of the vote, and she or he’s going through a tricky contest this fall towards a Democrat who is concentrated on kitchen-table points like insurance coverage and housing prices. Final week, Luna’s challenger joined dozens of different Democrats in calling on Speaker of the Home Mike Johnson to reconvene Congress and cross further catastrophe reduction funding, and slammed Luna for voting towards FEMA cash in September. Simply hours later, Luna joined the requires Congress to reconvene, bucking the management of her personal celebration.

“This must occur,” she tweeted. “Speaker Johnson, name us again.”

Can hurricanes have an effect on voter turnout?

Previously few weeks, tens of millions of individuals throughout the Southeast have been affected by hurricanes Helene and Milton. My colleague Zoya spoke to catastrophe researchers and political scientists to seek out out whether or not the hurricanes will suppress voter turnout and finally change the course of the presidential election. Right here’s what they stated:

“We’re all wrestling with and making an attempt to foretell the way it’ll play out within the subsequent couple of weeks. I believe lots of voters have already made up their minds about who they’re going to vote for; there’s not an enormous variety of swing voters left. Lots of western North Carolina may be very Republican. The priority is that if the parents who’re unable to make their voices heard within the election are totally different from the remainder of the citizens, then that may skew the election outcomes. The inverse is true in Tampa and Saint Petersburg, which is perhaps slightly bit bluer than the remainder of Florida.”

Kevin Morris


Senior analysis fellow and voting coverage scholar with the Brennan Heart for Justice’s Democracy Program

“The hurricane is prone to have two reverse results on the identical time. Previous analysis has proven that main hurricanes and different large-scale pure hazards depress voter turnout as a result of persons are busy repairing houses, struggling to cope with insurance coverage corporations, submitting paperwork with FEMA or the Small Enterprise Administration, and customarily making an attempt to place themselves proper once more. Alternatively, for many individuals believing that they need to have acquired extra support from the federal government, and for individuals who consider that they acquired helpful support, they could be extra prone to vote to point out their emotions.”

Daniel Aldrich


Political science professor and catastrophe researcher at Northeastern College

“The distribution of FEMA catastrophe help within the aftermath of a hurricane tends to assist the president’s celebration within the upcoming elections. Receiving FEMA catastrophe support will usually enhance turnout amongst voters affiliated with the president’s celebration — i.e., registered Democrats on this yr’s elections. All else being equal, a precinct that receives extra FEMA catastrophe support will doubtless exhibit a barely greater Democratic vote share in subsequent month’s elections.”

Jowei Chen


Affiliate professor of political science on the College of Michigan

What we’re studying

FEMA faces threats: FEMA relocated a few of its response workers in North Carolina over the weekend after receiving experiences that armed militias have been planning to focus on federal reduction staff, in line with Brianna Sacks of The Washington Publish. Native legislation enforcement companies couldn’t substantiate these rumors, however they did arrest one native man for threatening FEMA and different companies.
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Hurricanes and EVs don’t combine: The storm surge from hurricanes Helene and Milton revealed a rising danger in states like Florida: electrical automobiles, which may catch on hearth and explode when salt water inundates their lithium-ion batteries. My colleague Tik Root experiences on how firefighters and emergency managers are dealing with this new risk from an emblem of the local weather tradition wars.
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Helene’s impression on the grid: Hurricane Helene knocked out energy infrastructure throughout a large swath of Appalachia, forcing utilities like Duke Power to confront a tough reconstruction effort. My Grist colleague Gautama Mehta reported on how utilities would possibly adapt their getting older wires and transformers for mounting wind and flood danger.
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Restoring voting entry in North Carolina: North Carolina election officers are racing to rebuild election infrastructure within the state’s storm-battered western counties. Governing has a rundown of the notable adjustments the state legislature has handed, together with one tweak that permits extra flexibility in the place voters can return absentee ballots, and the remaining challenges, which embrace discovering mills that may energy battery-operated voting machines.
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Brazil’s post-disaster election: Brazil held a nationwide spherical of native elections final week after a yr marked by historic floods, droughts, and wildfires. However Overseas Coverage experiences that regardless of the cascade of disasters the nation has confronted this yr, local weather change was, for essentially the most half, absent from candidates’ speeches and coverage platforms.
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With reporting and analysis contributed by Zoya Teirstein.