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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) — Two weeks in the past, Hurricane Helene “spared” the Tampa Bay area a direct hit and but storm surge nonetheless induced catastrophic harm, flooding properties, drowning individuals who determined to remain close to the coast and leaving large piles of particles that also sit alongside roadsides.
Now that Hurricane Milton, a extra highly effective storm, is heading straight for a similar area, what can residents count on?
“Worse. A lot worse,” mentioned former Federal Emergency Administration Director Craig Fugate, a Florida resident who beforehand ran the state’s emergency administration division.
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The cities close to the mouth of Tampa Bay noticed a number of the worst storm surge in reminiscence throughout Helene regardless that the storm landed greater than 100 miles (161 kilometers) to the north. Now forecasters say the low-lying area may very well be hit with 15 toes (5 meters) of storm surge.
“This isn’t water that rises slowly. That is fast-moving water with waves. It’s like a battering ram,” Fugate mentioned. “You simply don’t need to be in that space. That’s how we misplaced a whole lot of lives in all these surge areas the place folks didn’t get out. They both drowned or have been crushed by their homes collapsing on them.”
What’s storm surge?
Storm surge is the extent at which sea water rises above its regular stage.
Very similar to the best way a storm’s sustained winds don’t embrace the potential for even stronger gusts, storm surge doesn’t embrace the wave peak above the imply water stage of the surge itself.
Surge can be the quantity above what the conventional tide is on the time, so a 15-foot (5-meter) storm surge at excessive tide with 10-foot (3-meter) waves on high of that may stage buildings with ease, knock down bridges and flatten something in its path.
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How may it have an effect on Florida’s west coast?
Florida’s west peninsular coast comprises the Tampa Bay area, although it’s not simply town of Tampa that’s in danger. St. Petersburg and densely populated barrier islands are on the Gulf of Mexico close to the mouth of the bay. And the risk from storm surge extends about 150 miles (241 kilometers) to the north into the state’s Massive Bend area and greater than 150 miles (241 kilometers) to the south to Naples and into the Florida Keys.
Milton may have an unlimited influence irrespective of the place it lands, however the worst surge shall be to the south of Milton’s eye. If that features Tampa Bay and the three.3 million individuals who stay within the area, flooding may very well be catastrophic. The area hasn’t had a direct hit from a significant hurricane in additional than 100 years.
If it hits to the south of Tampa Bay, cities like Sarasota, Venice, Fort Myers and Naples may very well be devastated simply two years after Hurricane Ian induced catastrophic harm, washed away properties and companies and made bridges to barrier islands impassable.
What’s going to occur to the particles nonetheless on the bottom after Helene?
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State and native governments are shifting as shortly as they’ll to take away storm tree limbs, furnishings, home equipment and different particles left in large piles after Helene. However they gained’t eliminate all of it.
Whereas state and native officers worry Milton’s wind and surge can flip particles into lethal projectiles, Fugate factors out that it gained’t kill anyone in the event that they evacuate and that property harm shall be extreme with or with out particles blowing and washing round.
“I’ve the sensation every thing that’s nonetheless standing will develop into particles and also you gained’t be capable of distinguish it,” Fugate mentioned. “For those who’ve received sufficient water to maneuver that stuff round, it’s going to be shifting homes, automobiles and different issues as nicely.”
However the storm may weaken, proper?
Positive, Milton may weaken from a Class 5 to a Class 3 earlier than landfall, however that gained’t make an enormous distinction in the case of storm surge.
“Wind doesn’t have reminiscence, storm surge does. So, what a storm is doing a day trip may have a whole lot of influence on storm surge,” Fugate mentioned. “As soon as that power is within the water and your pushing it, even should you noticed some weakening, it doesn’t actually change.”
And the realm the place Milton’s heading has a lot of creeks, canals and rivers that can may trigger issues past the instant coast.
“That is the kind of storm that too many individuals get fixated on the class and the observe and so they actually have to be listening to the native climate providers places of work and the hurricane heart on impacts,” Fugate mentioned. “Storm surge just isn’t tied to the winds, it’s associated.”
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