The final week of the MLB common season is upon us. Whereas some postseason tickets have been punched, there are a number of spots left to say and first-round byes to safe for the highest two groups in every league. Let’s examine in on the 15 groups nonetheless within the playoff image to see what our writers are specializing in throughout this remaining stretch and the way essentially the most related tiebreakers line up for every staff.
(Notice: Y signifies a staff has clinched a division title; X denotes a staff has clinched a postseason berth.)
Nationwide League
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (93-63) — x
A lot remains to be in flux for the Dodgers when it comes to seeding, together with even touchdown a first-round bye. The Dodgers nonetheless have greater than a 90 % likelihood of successful the NL West once more, in keeping with FanGraphs, however one unhealthy sequence in opposition to the Padres might make issues fairly fascinating. The offense is explosive and dynamic (with Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts, specifically, being the drivers forward of Freddie Freeman). The bullpen seems as deep because it’s been all season. The query, for the second yr in a row, is the beginning pitching. It’s seemingly that Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler and Landon Knack will issue into the Dodgers’ rotation plans, which isn’t precisely how the group pictured issues this spring. — Fabian Ardaya
Remaining sequence: vs. Padres (three video games), at Rockies (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Philadelphia holds the tiebreaker over Los Angeles for seeding, however the Dodgers have the tiebreaker over Milwaukee. San Diego holds the tiebreaker over L.A. for the division title.
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2. Philadelphia Phillies (93-64) — y
The Phillies have assured a postseason berth for the third consecutive season — solely the third time that has occurred in membership historical past. They captured their first Nationwide League East title in 13 years with a win over the Cubs on Monday evening; the following step is securing a first-round bye. That might be in hand earlier than the weekend. They stumbled throughout a street journey to Milwaukee and New York — two groups the Phillies might see in October — but it surely was not as a result of they didn’t pitch. This can be a staff constructed on its four-deep rotation and hard-throwing bullpen. If there’s a worry, it’s that this boom-or-bust lineup full of expertise has a chilly week in October. One factor to watch: The Phillies have chased pitches out of the strike zone at the next price (34 %) in September than another month this season. — Matt Gelb
Remaining sequence: vs. Cubs (two video games), at Nationals (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Philadelphia holds tiebreakers over Los Angeles and Milwaukee.
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3. Milwaukee Brewers (89-67) — y
The Brewers are the one staff in baseball that has not endured a four-game dropping streak all season. It took a stunning comeback Sunday in opposition to the Diamondbacks to maintain that alive. Down eight runs within the third inning, the Brewers rallied for an eventual 10-9 victory. It was a wanted win for a staff that simply clinched the NL Central regardless of a September 11 report to this point in September. The Brewers’ odds of incomes a first-round bye are right down to about 1 %. Milwaukee wants its lineup to start out clicking if it desires to regain favor as a possible October spoiler. With gamers comparable to Sal Frelick slumping and Willy Adames hitting solely .208 in September, the Brewers’ staff wRC+ of 81 this month ranks twenty fourth in MLB. — Cody Stavenhagen
Remaining sequence: at Pirates (three video games), vs. Mets (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Philadelphia and Los Angeles maintain tiebreakers over Milwaukee.
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4. San Diego Padres (90-66)
On the commerce deadline, the Padres dramatically upgraded what would possibly now be the perfect bullpen within the league. The returns have been as hoped; San Diego’s deep assortment of high-leverage arms has been featured closely amid a 40-17 second half. If there’s a concern, it’s the pitch utilization of Robert Suarez. The nearer rode his fastball-reliant method to his first All-Star look, however he has struggled to persistently miss bats because the first week of August. Because the Padres attempt to chase down their first division title since 2006 — San Diego should end a minimum of 5-1 to have an opportunity — can Suarez make profitable changes? And if he continues to falter, will supervisor Mike Shildt be extra inclined to deploy one other All-Star nearer, Tanner Scott, within the ninth? — Dennis Lin
Remaining sequence: at Dodgers (three video games), at Diamondbacks (three video games)
Tiebreakers: San Diego holds the tiebreaker over Los Angeles for the division title. The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Padres for seeding, however San Diego owns the tiebreaker versus the Braves. The Padres-Diamondbacks tiebreaker is TBD (season sequence is tied).
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5. New York Mets (87-69)
The Mets can clinch a playoff berth with a sequence win in opposition to the Atlanta Braves. Baseball’s finest staff since June, the Mets have earned their spot among the many contenders due to their resilience and depth. These are hallmarks of any high quality membership navigating accidents, however the Mets should lean additional on these traits to beat the absence of Francisco Lindor, who stays out with a again situation with no agency timetable for a return. With out Lindor, the Mets have continued to roll. Their lineup has acquired contributions from a bunch of gamers, and that has to this point been sufficient, however they could want extra from Pete Alonso and J.D. Martinez. Their protection has vastly improved since Jose Iglesias joined the staff in late Might. And their pitching workers has rounded into kind. Since August, all 5 of the Mets’ starters personal sub-3.50 ERAs. Will that proceed as supervisor Carlos Mendoza acts extra aggressively with a bullpen led by Edwin Díaz? — Will Sammon
Remaining sequence: at Braves (three video games), at Brewers (three video games)
Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreakers over San Diego and Arizona. The Mets-Braves tiebreaker is TBD (season sequence is tied).
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6. Arizona Diamondbacks (87-70)
All instructed, the Diamondbacks ought to make a second consecutive postseason look for under the second time ever. There are just a few nagging caveats. They blew their largest lead — eight runs — in franchise historical past Sunday, additional proof of a tough September for his or her relievers, whose collective ERA has been dangerously near 7.00 this month. Beginning catcher Gabriel Moreno exited early with left adductor tightness one week after his return from a left adductor pressure that put him on the injured record for a month-plus. Supervisor Torey Lovullo stated Monday that Moreno is “day-to-day.” Then there’s pitcher Merrill Kelly, who left two of his final three begins prematurely with cramping. The Mets-Braves sequence may have direct ramifications on the place the Diamondbacks land within the remaining standings. At present, the Braves are 1 1/2 video games again of the Diamondbacks, who’re a half-game behind the Mets and three 1/2 behind the Padres. — Noah Furtado
Remaining sequence: vs. Giants (two video games), vs. Padres (three video games)
Tiebreakers: New York and Atlanta maintain tiebreakers over Arizona. The Padres-Diamondbacks tiebreaker is TBD (season sequence is tied).
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7. Atlanta Braves (85-71)
If the Braves and Mets taking part in a crucial sequence in Atlanta over the last week of the season appears acquainted, it’s as a result of they did it in 2022 with the division on the road. Atlanta swept that one, but it surely’s the Mets that enter with momentum and swagger now, whereas the injury-depleted Braves wrestle to attain and help their strong pitching. Chris Sale’s velocity discount in his final begin led the Braves to provide him an additional day of relaxation; he’ll begin Wednesday in opposition to New York reasonably than pitch twice this week, so rookie sensation Spencer Schwellenbach begins Tuesday. The Braves have gained 11 of 19, however solely two of the victories had been in opposition to a successful staff. They path the Mets by two video games and the groups have cut up their earlier 10, so if New York wins the sequence, the perfect the Braves might do is end with the identical report, and the Mets would personal the tiebreaker. Atlanta’s solely different postseason route would require an Arizona collapse. — David O’Brien
Remaining sequence: vs. Mets (three video games), vs. Royals (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Atlanta holds the tiebreaker over Arizona. San Diego has the tiebreaker over the Braves. The Braves-Mets tiebreaker is TBD (season sequence is tied).
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American League
1. New York Yankees (92-64) — x
Will the Yankees tip their hand concerning their most popular starter in left area? At this level, the division title is all however assured; they’ll want to complete the season 0-6 to overlook out on successful the AL East. There are nonetheless a few postseason roster choices to be made earlier than October: Who shall be their third starter within the ALDS? Does Marcus Stroman make the roster as an extended reliever? And the way will they use former nearer Clay Holmes? However essentially the most intriguing query is whether or not 21-year-old Jasson Domínguez, their high prospect, has accomplished sufficient to unseat Alex Verdugo for the beginning left area job. If Domínguez will get the vast majority of taking part in time in left area over these subsequent six video games, it might reveal how the Yankees really feel in regards to the rookie in October. — Chris Kirschner
Remaining sequence: vs. Orioles (3 video games), vs. Pirates (3 video games)
Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreaker over Guardians for seeding. The Yankees-Orioles tiebreaker is TBD. (New York is 4-6 in opposition to them this season.)
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2. Cleveland Guardians (90-67) — y
Cleveland’s high precedence this week is to stitch up a first-round bye and the membership would like to try this earlier than the Astros, their main competitors for that bye, come to city for a daily season-ending sequence this weekend. In any other case, there’s lots to type out with their playoff roster. They may decide names out of a hat to find out the rotation after Tanner Bibee. Will Alex Cobb be wholesome? Will Gavin Williams be reliable? Do Ben Energetic and Matthew Boyd deserve a shot? There are a few bench roles up for grabs as properly. The Guardians are hoping to activate Steven Kwan from the injured record within the subsequent day or two. He’ll have to switch somebody on the roster, which might give us some perception into their pondering for October. — Zack Meisel
Remaining sequence: vs. Reds (two video games), vs. Astros (three video games)
Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland for seeding. The Guardians-Astros tiebreaker is TBD. (Cleveland is 1-2 in opposition to them this season.)
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3. Houston Astros (85-72)
On June 18, the worst staff in fashionable major-league historical past shut out the Astros, sending them seven video games beneath .500 and 10 video games behind the Seattle Mariners within the AL West. Houston has gone 52-31 since, seizing benefit of Seattle’s epic collapse to place itself on the precipice of a fourth consecutive division title. One win within the subsequent two video games in opposition to the Mariners will seal the Astros’ division title — and ship them into uncharted territory. FanGraphs offers them only a 1.2 % likelihood of clinching a first-round bye, however three video games in opposition to the Guardians to finish the season might give Houston an opportunity to keep away from the wild-card spherical. First-year supervisor Joe Espada would then need to determine whether or not resting overworked second baseman Jose Altuve alongside still-injured cornerstones Kyle Tucker, Yordan Alvarez and Alex Bregman is extra prudent than chasing a bye his staff is unlikely to get. — Chandler Rome
Remaining sequence: vs. Mariners (two video games), at Guardians (three video games)
Tiebreakers: New York holds the tiebreaker over Houston for seeding, whereas the Astros-Guardians tiebreaker is TBD. (Houston is 2-1 in opposition to them this season.) The Mariners have the tiebreaker over Houston for the division title.
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4. Baltimore Orioles (86-70)
The Orioles are all however sure to be playoff-bound, however that’s about the one good factor going for them. They’ve misplaced 11 of 16 to mainly destroy all hope of a second straight AL East crown. And the one cause they’re nonetheless more likely to host the wild-card spherical is because of Kansas Metropolis and Minnesota having equally tough September stretches. Adley Rutschman is hitting simply .189 over his final 15 video games, as a part of a team-wide offensive downturn. They DFA’d reliever Craig Kimbrel final week, because the bullpen’s effectiveness stays in flux. The Orioles have the expertise to be a World Collection contender, however they’ve to date saved their worst baseball for the worst attainable time. — Sam Blum
Remaining sequence: at Yankees (three video games), at Twins (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Baltimore holds the tiebreaker over Kansas Metropolis. Detroit has the tiebreaker over the Orioles. The Yankees-Orioles tiebreaker is TBD. (Baltimore is 6-4 in opposition to them this season.)
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5. Kansas Metropolis Royals (82-74)
On Sept. 14, the Royals improved to 82-67 and had a 98.8 % likelihood to make the postseason, in keeping with FanGraphs. Since then, they’ve misplaced seven straight video games and, as of Monday, their playoff odds had plummeted to 68.6 %. In all, the Royals are 7-14 since first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino exited with a damaged thumb on Aug. 29. With Pasquantino sidelined and Salvador Perez slugging .324 in September, the offense has disappeared. Kansas Metropolis has scored simply 4 runs in its final 5 video games, together with one in a three-game sweep by the San Francisco Giants. With the Tigers going through the Chicago White Sox of their remaining sequence, the Royals might have to take 4 of six video games in opposition to the Washington Nationals and Braves — a minimum of — to remain forward of the Twins. — Rustin Dodd
Remaining sequence: at Washington (three video games), at Braves (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Kansas Metropolis holds the tiebreaker over Detroit and Seattle, however the Orioles and Twins have the tiebreaker over the Royals.
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6. Detroit Tigers (82-74)
As of Monday afternoon, the Tigers’ playoff odds had been as much as 71 %. They should keep scorching, particularly within the upcoming sequence in opposition to the Tampa Bay Rays. However past that, will probably be fascinating to see if the Tigers can clinch a playoff spot — and whether or not they can push for the second wild card — getting into Recreation 162 in opposition to the Chicago White Sox. Tarik Skubal shall be slated to start out that day, however Detroit would possibly want to push him to the opening sport of the Wild Card Collection if attainable. In any other case, the Tigers can be with out their ace on full relaxation for his or her first playoff sequence in a decade. — Cody Stavenhagen
Remaining sequence: vs. Rays (three video games), vs. White Sox (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Detroit has the tiebreaker over Seattle and Baltimore, however Kansas Metropolis and Minnesota have the tiebreaker over the Tigers.
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7. Minnesota Twins (81-75)
At this level, the Twins merely want wins to keep away from finishing one of many largest collapses in staff historical past. Minnesota was 70-53 in mid-August, with playoff odds round 95 %. Since then, the Twins are 11-22 and have fallen out of playoff place for the primary time since early Might. They’re lucky to complete at residence, with three video games in opposition to the last-place Marlins and three video games in opposition to a possible playoff-bound Orioles staff that will not have a lot at stake. Holding tiebreakers over the Royals, Tigers and Mariners offers a half-game enhance, however that will not matter except the Twins can go a minimum of 4-2. It’s not asking lots in opposition to two less-than-motivated foes, however the final time the Twins had a minimum of 4 wins in any six-game stretch was Aug. 13-18, which additionally occurs to mark the beginning of this free fall.
— Aaron Gleeman
Remaining sequence: vs. Marlins (three video games), vs. Orioles (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Minnesota holds tiebreakers over Detroit, Kansas Metropolis and Seattle.
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8. Seattle Mariners (81-76)
It’s been a dozen years since a staff led the majors in ERA and missed the playoffs (Tampa Bay, 2012), however that’s in play for Seattle, which completed the weekend outdoors the playoff combine with an MLB-low 3.52 ERA. The Mariners have scored extra runs below new supervisor Dan Wilson and hitting coach Edgar Martinez, and Julio Rodríguez has lastly come alive. But it surely’s laborious to belief this group of hitters, and the Astros’ workers presents a problem this week. Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are set to start out the following two video games in Houston, in order that’s encouraging, however Luis Castillo is out with a hamstring pressure and the bullpen has been shaky these days. This week should go nearly completely for the Mariners to have an opportunity — and even then, they’ll want some luck, as a result of they personal not one of the related tiebreakers. — Tyler Kepner
Remaining sequence: at Astros (two video games), vs. A’s (three video games)
Tiebreakers: Baltimore, Detroit, Kansas Metropolis and Minnesota maintain tiebreakers over Seattle. The Mariners have the tiebreaker over Houston for the division title.
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(High picture: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Riley Greene: Matt Dirksen / Getty Photographs; Mookie Betts: Wealthy von Biberstein / Icon Sportswire / Getty Photographs)