MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Cavs’ uncommon heights and extra fearless NBA season predictions

As we put together for a brand new NBA season, let’s quick ahead for a second to Christmas, as a result of there’s a captivating story right here involving the league’s schedule.

You see, Christmas video games are maybe the league’s marquee in-season occasion (though the NFL is attempting to chop in on the NBA’s  enterprise). Primarily, the NBA takes its 10 most marketable groups and throws them on the large display for a quintuple-header to entertain the eggnog-addled plenty. Yearly when the schedule comes out, there’s one thing of a buzz round which groups and gamers made the Christmas reduce. Of late, there’s been one other component due to the undercurrent of “Who’s subsequent?” going across the league the previous few years.

LeBron James and Stephen Curry can’t carry this factor endlessly. However though we’re occurring 9 years because the 39-year-old James or 36-year-old Curry received a Most Precious Participant award and three since both appeared in an NBA Finals, they nonetheless are doing lots of the heavy lifting in the case of getting TV eyeballs. To a lesser extent, the league is asking the identical from 36-year-old Kevin Durant.

This yr, the league is asking James and Curry to carry their proverbial sled into the sky on Christmas evening, that includes the Los Angeles Lakers–Golden State Warriors in essentially the most seen time slot regardless of neither crew wanting like a practical title contender. Their two groups are additionally first and third in nationwide TV appearances this season.

It’s not that James and Curry can’t ship — as we witnessed most just lately in Paris — however there’s a actuality of time and age right here. They’re each of their late 30s and not among the many recreation’s 5 finest gamers. In the meantime, the three gamers who mixed to win the final six MVP awards — Nikola Jokić, Joel Embiid and Giannis Antetokounmpo — every might be 30 by March; whereas they’re not precisely close to retirement, we’ve in all probability already seen absolutely the peak for every.

So once more … who’s subsequent? It appeared to some we had an apparent handoff level within the 2024 playoffs. In a single nook, we had Jayson Tatum (age 26) and Jaylen Brown (27) main the Boston Celtics to the title; within the different, we had the sensible Luka Dončić (25) and the ebullient Anthony Edwards (23) going through off within the Western Convention finals.

And ready within the wings, in fact, is the San Antonio Spurs’ impossibly dimensioned second-year professional Victor Wembanyama, who has already change into one of many league’s must-see gamers and will interject himself into the MVP race as quickly as this season.

These gamers account for 9 of the ten groups chosen to be a part of the league’s marquee Christmas schedule, with the Knicks being the Tenth as a result of they’re New York. (They’re good, too, however they’re on the schedule even after they aren’t.) In addition they account for a number of of the groups the league featured in its tipoff advert … one which notably options Edwards (and, a bit bizarrely, co-stars the perennially injured Kawhi Leonard).

It leaves you to surprise in regards to the one crew and participant who didn’t make that reduce. That might be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who completed second in final yr’s MVP voting, and the Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder, who have been the Western Convention’s prime seed and determine to be so once more.

It’s fairly clear the league and its TV companions are extra enthusiastic about Edwards, for example, which makes me ask … are they making the identical mistake with Gilgeous-Alexander that they did with Jokić?

The NBA-TV complicated spent mainly zero effort hyping Jokić whereas he was profitable back-to-back MVPs, not till it belatedly realized he was by far the league’s finest participant. Sadly, that wasn’t till about midway by means of the 2023 NBA Finals.

Gilgeous-Alexander can’t fairly declare to be on Jokić’s stage but, however we might be headed to the same place. Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t as telegenic as Edwards, however he’s additionally much more prone to be enjoying in June. It’s not laborious to think about a situation the place the league’s TV companions ignore him all yr after which complain about rankings for an Oklahoma Metropolis convention finals or finals. It’s not simply the Christmas snub, both — 10 groups have extra nationwide TV run than the Thunder this season.

I’m going by means of all of this as a result of it’s time for my fearless predictions for the approaching season, and my massive one is that this: It’s SGA’s time.

He completed second in MVP voting a season in the past and might be pushing Jokić and Dončić for that honor this yr. Nevertheless, Gilgeous-Alexander has two massive benefits in his favor: First, his crew may be very prone to have the perfect file within the West, maybe by a number of video games; and second, he’s prone to play extra video games than Dončić, specifically.

In consequence, my first daring prediction is that Gilgeous-Alexander will win MVP, regardless of not being on the league’s push checklist.

However I’ve a lot extra to debate. For starters. I’ll word that I’ve given myself a troublesome act to observe, as a result of a yr in the past, for no matter motive, this train went so much higher than I anticipated. (Translation: I truly received some stuff proper.)

That included the miraculous feat of accurately predicting the Most Improved Participant winner and naming Boston because the eventual champion. I additionally accurately predicted the LA Clippers’ and Chicago Bulls’ route shifts, the Timberwolves profitable their first collection in 20 years and the West regaining its historic dominance over the East. Even my misses (Wembanyama making the All-Star crew, Tatum profitable MVP, no teaching adjustments by the All-Star break) principally weren’t off by a lot. The one evident miss was my Coach of the Yr decide. (Taylor Jenkins’ Memphis Grizzlies received 27 video games. Oops.)

So let’s do this once more. I’m attempting to keep away from the Captain Apparent stuff and bravely delve into extra questionable territory, even with the elevated danger of it ending in catastrophe. With that mentioned, listed below are the remainder of my fearless predictions for 2024-25:

Each West Play-In recreation might be in California

Let’s begin with my boldest geographically targeted prediction ever (additionally presumably my just one, however nonetheless). The Play-In Match house groups would be the seventh- and ninth-place finishers in every convention, with a subsequent last recreation hosted by the loser of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 recreation.

I’ve projected three groups from California — the Warriors, Lakers and Kings — to complete seventh, eighth and ninth within the West, respectively, and I’ve a fourth California crew (the Clippers) on the fringes of the Play-In race. Thus, it doesn’t appear to be an enormous stretch to suppose each West Play-In recreation might be performed within the golden state. We will slim the geographic band even tighter, to a 90-mile stretch of Northern California, if the Warriors and Kings are the seventh- and ninth-place groups and the seventh-place finisher loses the primary recreation. These two arenas are separated by fewer than 90 miles.

5 teaching adjustments by All-Star break

I predicted final season that we wouldn’t have a training change earlier than the All-Star break; on the time, I couldn’t have foreseen the newly employed Adrian Griffin warranting one of many quickest hooks in latest teaching annals. Aside from the Milwaukee state of affairs, we nearly received there earlier than Washington let Wes Unseld Jr. go in late January. One different coach (Brooklyn’s Jacque Vaughn) was let go the day after the All-Star Recreation, and people have been the one three adjustments all season. (5 extra jobs opened in the summertime.)

This yr, I anticipate extra tumult within the teaching ranks. Simply undergo the 22 groups that didn’t make a change previously 12 months. There are far more warm-to-hot seats being held by coaches who’re far sufficient into their tenure for the honeymoon part to be over however not established sufficient to be “made males” within the mould of an Erik Spoelstra or Joe Mazzulla.

I feel 5 of those jobs flip over by the All-Star break in February. I’m not going to attempt to undertaking which 5, aside from to inform you solely about half the league’s jobs really feel really secure. Put together for some turnover.

East will give us first 50-loss Play-In crew

Within the brief historical past of the Play-In, now we have by no means had a 50-loss crew qualify. Imagine it or not, the present file right here isn’t held by a crew from the East, however by the 2021-22 San Antonio Spurs crew that went 34-48 and limped into Tenth place within the West.

I’m fairly certain 9 East groups can get previous 34 wins with out breaking a sweat. Is there a tenth? On paper, it’s not wanting good: The underside-six groups within the East all appear greater than able to dropping 50-plus video games. I’m projecting my Tenth-place crew within the convention to land at 32 wins and the opposite 5 groups to fall a number of video games wanting even that modest threshold.

Talking of which:

Atlanta might be in East Play-In as soon as once more

Residing in Atlanta means by no means clearing your calendar the week of April 15. The Hawks have performed 4 Play-In video games in three years and have an ideal likelihood of including two extra.

Atlanta is seemingly on an island within the East hierarchy, nicely behind the eight groups that every received at the least 46 video games a yr in the past but way more gifted than the underside six groups within the convention vying to be the worst Play-In crew in league annals. Accidents to good groups could mess this up, however on paper it appears fully believable the Hawks end in ninth place and not using a crew inside 5 video games of both facet of them.

Rookie of the Yr will come from outdoors of prime 5

The final seven Rookies of the Yr have been drafted first, first, fourth, third, second, fourth and first. It looks like we would get one thing very completely different this season.

In a draft with no apparent famous person, the highest two picks are prone to be off-ball position gamers of their preliminary professional season, whereas the gamers picked third, fourth and fifth face obstacles to getting sufficient minutes to actually issue right into a Rookie of the Yr race.

With comparatively little distinction between the primary dozen or so picks, I’m calling my shot right here: We’re going to get any person from deeper on the board who emerges to win the award. Perhaps it’s ninth decide Zach Edey, seemingly getting a beginning job on a silver platter for a comparatively strong crew. Perhaps it’s eleventh decide Matas Buzelis, who had a robust summer time league and may get loads of run on a rebuilding Bulls crew. Or perhaps it’s any person really out of left subject, like second-round decide Malcolm Brogdon profitable it in 2017. In a draft that wasn’t star-studded on the prime, I’m going to take the sphere over the primary 5 picks.

Wemby, Jalen Williams might be first-time All-Stars

Considered one of these predictions is within the “duh” class, however let’s discuss extra about Williams. He is perhaps a very powerful participant to observe in the complete league this yr. His capability to take in additional possessions and provides the Thunder a professional second on-ball creator will dictate not solely their speedy viability as a contender but in addition the larger image technique of whether or not the Thunder have to commerce from their draft decide asset pile to get Gilgeous-Alexander extra assist.

The fascinating factor about Williams is that he has an ideal likelihood of constructing the All-Star crew even when he doesn’t move this check with flying colours. Between the uptick in utilization he’s prone to see with Josh Giddey’s departure and the truth that coaches might be looking for any motive to place a second Thunder participant on the crew if, as I anticipate, they’re forward of the pack within the standings, Williams has a reasonably open pathway to an All-Star bid. That’s true even in a convention the place it’s been notoriously troublesome to interrupt by means of.

East won’t have a first-time All-Star

Once you have a look at what number of elite gamers within the East have already made at the least one All-Star crew, it’s robust to provide you with any person who may crack the roster for the primary time. The important thing stars on Boston, Milwaukee, Philadelphia, Cleveland, Milwaukee, New York and Indiana have all made it, as have Paolo Banchero, Trae Younger, Zach LaVine, Scottie Barnes and LaMelo Ball.

Who’s left? The one sensible hopes would appear to be Franz Wagner (prone to have the designated “Magic man” spot usurped by Banchero), Derrick White (“I such as you however not like that”) and Evan Mobley (presumably fourth within the Cavs’ All-Star hierarchy).

Amen Thompson will win Most Improved Participant

Within the wake of final season’s profitable prediction that Philadelphia’s Tyrese Maxey would win the award, I’ve no alternative however to try to repeat the feat. Scanning rosters and eyeballing candidates, I’ve settled on Thompson.

I feel notion will play an enormous position right here. Thompson’s rookie season didn’t actually register with followers, partly as a result of he missed the start of it and solely performed 62 video games, beginning simply 23.

Nevertheless, he was a really profitable rookie when he performed. Try these splits as a starter: 13.5 factors, 9.9 rebounds, 58.4 p.c capturing, two assists for each turnover and practically two “shares” (steals + blocks) per evening. He’ll should change into extra threatening as a shooter (8 of 58 from 3 … yikes), however that’s the one space wherein younger gamers can generally make nice progress.

With Houston presumably stepping up as a extra severe playoff contender this yr, and Thompson prone to obtain much more enjoying time within the cut price, I anticipate him to change into a extra outstanding title within the nationwide dialogue. Whether or not that’s sufficient to get him an award like this stays to be seen — normally it’s an out-of-left-field, never-saw-it-coming-type season that wins this honor. But when there’s a Maxey-ish-type yr on the market that perhaps we might see coming, I feel Thompson has the perfect likelihood of delivering it.

Kenny Atkinson will win Coach of the Yr

I’ve to make amends for final yr’s Coach of the Yr decide, so let’s do this once more. The respect is usually actually a “most undervalued crew” award, given to the coach of the crew that beat preseason expectations by the widest margin. That is true to the purpose that the man many suppose is the perfect coach, Miami’s Spoelstra, has by no means received the award.

Enter Cleveland and Atkinson. I mentioned this in an earlier piece, however I feel the prediction market has weirdly undervalued the Cavaliers, particularly as a regular-season juggernaut. Moreover, Atkinson is in place to generate an enormous share of the credit score for this as a first-year coach, as he’s the one apparent change on a roster that returns all 10 rotation gamers from a season in the past. If he can truly do some cool stuff on the sideline, a lot the higher.

Cavs will make convention finals

Get away your Mark Worth and Brad Daugherty throwback jerseys! With a deep, gifted crew constructed for the regular-season grind, higher well being than a yr in the past and maybe some additional juice from the teaching change lumped on prime, I feel the Cavs have an opportunity to match essentially the most profitable non-LeBron James season of their historical past — the 57-win seasons the Worth-Daugherty crew put collectively in 1991-92 and 1988-89.

Projecting good issues for the Cavs this season isn’t laborious, however the place this prediction is taking a leap of religion is within the playoffs. Can Cleveland actually be anticipated to beat a crew like New York, Philadelphia or Milwaukee within the second spherical?

Presumably … if the Cavs can present a little bit of a studying curve from their final two postseason misadventures, and if their opponents aren’t at full energy. I’m relying a bit on historical past right here to place some wind at Cleveland’s again, since there’s a good likelihood a higher-ceiling crew just like the Knicks or Sixers might be injury-softened by Could. However this house isn’t for “vanilla predictions,” so let’s exit on a limb. Cavs it’s.

Celtics will prime Cavs in East finals

That is the place I get off the Cleveland prepare, particularly if Boston has a wholesome Kristaps Porziņģis by the point the playoffs roll round. Cleveland confirmed it will probably hold with Boston in Recreation 2 of the second spherical this previous spring earlier than accidents hollowed out the Cavs’ roster, however there’s nonetheless an enormous hole between “hanging” and “profitable 4 instances.”

The Celtics received the East by 14 video games a yr in the past and have been by no means challenged within the postseason. Sure, that was partly pushed by opponent accidents. I anticipate the second spherical and convention finals to be a bit extra daunting this time round. Nonetheless, Boston must be an amazing favourite to advance, particularly when you take into account mid-to-bad-case eventualities. Put one other approach, the Celtics are the one crew I might see having an harm to a top-three participant and nonetheless make the NBA Finals.

Thunder will beat Mavs in West finals

That is in all probability the postseason collection I’m wanting ahead to essentially the most, and it’s nonetheless seven months away and never assured to occur. It’s a attainable matchup of the highest two guys on MVP ballots and might be a part of a recurring collection of postseason encounters over the subsequent a number of years. Final season’s collection was a barnburner, the perfect one of many playoffs; it ended with a internet margin of zero and hinged on a wild Dallas Recreation 6, fourth-quarter comeback.

Final season’s Mavs have been a near-perfect antidote for the Thunder, however roster adjustments to each groups could give the Thunder the higher hand this time. They’ve extra perimeter defenders to harass Dončić, one other massive man in Isaiah Hartenstein to assist their evident rebounding deficit and, above all, extra understanding of what it’s they should do in a high-level collection like this. Dallas, in the meantime, doesn’t fairly have the perimeter protection it did a yr in the past to deal with the Thunder’s dribble assaults.

Celtics will prime Thunder for title

Repeating is troublesome within the NBA, because the final six years have proven, however I feel Boston will finish the pattern of defending champions faltering. The Celtics have been head and shoulders above the league final season, so that they have a little bit of room to take a step again and nonetheless preserve a leg up.

The Thunder are the crew that matches up finest with the Celtics on paper, capable of throw a number of elite perimeter defenders at Tatum and Brown. Nevertheless, in a finals collection, one would additionally financial institution on Boston’s better expertise providing an intangible benefit. I’ll say I give the Thunder the second-best odds of profitable all of it, however sadly, I can solely decide one crew to win it.

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(High picture of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Donovan Mitchell: Kirk Irwin, Sean Gardner / Getty Photos)