Week 5 of the 2024 NFL season options an intriguing NFC South matchup to kick off the slate and the beginning of the NFL worldwide collection in London. The red-hot Tampa Bay Buccaneers, led by Baker Mayfield, kick issues off Thursday night time towards Kirk Cousins and the Atlanta Falcons.
Issues warmth up on Sunday morning as Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets face an previous good friend in Sam Darnold and the undefeated Minnesota Vikings. The Dallas Cowboys journey to Pittsburgh to tackle Justin Fields and the Steelers on Sunday night time, and the “Monday Evening Soccer” matchup options Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs welcoming Derek Carr and the New Orleans Saints to GEHA Discipline at Arrowhead Stadium (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
Our betting analysts take an early have a look at Week 5 strains to seek out some worth earlier than issues transfer nearer to the video games.
Odds present as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first guess: Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-115) vs. New York Jets
(Final week: Dallas -4 towards NYG. Line closed at -5.5, Dallas received 20-15)
Three is essentially the most key level unfold in NFL betting as a result of extra closing scores finish with a differential of “3” than some other differential (roughly 14%). Given Minnesota’s white-hot begin coupled with a hobbled Aaron Rodgers and anemic Jets offense, I wish to lock in Vikings -2.5 earlier than the worldwide market strikes to the aforementioned key variety of 3, similar to we have seen a number of sportsbooks already do. New York is improved this season, however their teaching leaves so much to be desired. Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores squaring off towards Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is our edge on this one.
Tyler Fulghum’s first guess: Los Angeles Rams OVER 6.5 wins (-110)
(No decide final week)
Earlier than the season began this quantity was 8.5 and the over was one of many extra widespread performs available in the market. The Rams, nonetheless, have began the season 1-3. Is it as a result of we have been improper about this crew? Possibly. Is it due to a rash of cluster accidents to the offense? Extra possible.
Fortunately for the Rams, none of these accidents are season-ending. WR Puka Nacua, WR Cooper Kupp, OL Steve Avila, OL Jonah Jackson, and CB Darious Williams (all starters) ought to return sooner or later off the IR. Fortunately for the Rams they’ve a Week 6 bye which they’re going to desperately want. Sean McVay is a coach you belief to get essentially the most out of his crew regardless of the circumstances. Remember, only a season in the past, the Rams have been 3-6 earlier than sprinting to the playoffs with a 7-1 end. Purchase the 2024 dip now.
Anita Marks’ first guess: Washington Commanders (-3) (-125) vs. Cleveland Browns
(Final week: Steelers-Colts beneath 40. Line closed at 40.5. Ultimate rating was 27-21 Colts.)
Jayden Daniels is the actual deal, main his offense to a complete of 80 factors his final two begins, and setting the NFL on hearth. Daniels has a record-setting 80% completion proportion, near 900 passing yards, over 200 dashing yards, and 7 complete TDs. After years of mediocre QB play, Washington has lastly discovered its commander, and the Browns would possibly take into account benching DeShaun Watson if he continues to wrestle.
Ben Solak’s first guess: New Orleans Saints (+5) at Kansas Metropolis Chiefs
(Final week: Bengals-Panthers over 44.5. Closed at 46.5. Bengals received 34-24)
With out Rashee Rice, Hollywood Brown, and Isiah Pacheco, there simply is not a weapon on the Chiefs’ offense that scares me (save for one or two Xavier Worthy performs a recreation). The Saints have misplaced back-to-back video games, however had win percentages over 80% within the fourth quarter of each video games. New Orleans needs to be motivated to get a win, and catching a Chiefs crew that’s 4-0 however has but to win by greater than a landing this season. I am assured the Saints can get inside 5 factors.
Seth Walder’s first guess: Washington Commanders to win NFC East (+300)
(Final week: Colts ML (+105) towards the Steelers. Line closed at Colts +125. Colts received 27-24.)
The primary market I went to after the 4 p.m. video games concluded Sunday was odds to win the NFC East. Not as a result of I essentially thought I would be recommending this guess, however as a result of I needed to see how shut they have been. It seems that it’s not as shut as I assumed.
Washington has an actual one at quarterback in Daniels. He led Week 4 in QBR (89.5) coming into the Sunday night time recreation and ranks fourth in QBR this season. There are not any good groups within the NFC East. However now that the Commanders have a quarterback, why not take an opportunity on them no less than at 3-1 odds?
Andre Snellings’ first guess: Minnesota Vikings to win the NFC North (+105)
(Final week: Texans -4.5 towards the Jaguars. Line closed at -5.5. Texans received 24-20.)
Two NFC groups have completely satisfied me that they’re for actual, enjoying nicely above expectation: the Vikings and the Commanders. Seth has already touched on the Commanders, so let’s spotlight Vikings, essentially the most spectacular crew by means of the primary quarter of the season.
Minnesota is not simply successful; the crew is successful convincingly towards a tricky schedule. The Vikings are tied for the best scoring margin differential within the NFL (+57), with wins over the three groups within the San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans and Inexperienced Bay Packers which might be a mixed 7-2 towards everybody else. The Vikings’ cowl margin by means of 4 video games is +15.9, the best mark for a crew to begin 4-0 outright because the 2007 Patriots (+16.5). Minnesota is robust on each side of the ball, and proper now seem like the category of a powerful NFC North.
Pam Maldonado’s first guess: Navy Midshipmen at Air Power Falcons OVER 36 factors
Navy’s offense has been considerably stronger than Air Power’s, averaging 45 factors per recreation. And it is coming from a balanced assault. The Midshipmen rank second in yards per rush try (behind solely Boise State Broncos) and lead the FBS in yards per move try with quarterback Blake Horvath. Navy’s capacity to combine in efficient passes might hold the Air Power protection on its heels. The Falcons have been extremely susceptible on that aspect of the ball, giving up 383 yards per recreation. With a low complete of 36, the Midshipmen can possible rating 30 factors on their very own towards this protection.
