Washington — In a cycle that seems to be exceedingly favorable for Republicans hoping to take management of the Senate, one seat representing a Republican stronghold is going through a stunning problem this November.
Impartial Dan Osborn is operating an unexpectedly aggressive Senate race in deep-red Nebraska in his bid to unseat two-term Sen. Deb Fischer in a race that might shake up the struggle for management of Congress’ higher chamber.
Osborn, a Navy veteran, mechanic and union chief, has been garnering hundreds of thousands of {dollars} in outdoors assist and prompting Republicans to redouble their efforts in a race that was considered a straightforward win.
Polling, albeit restricted, signifies a decent race between Fischer and Osborn. A collection of current statewide polls recommend the race is inside single digits, together with an Impartial Middle ballot launched final week that confirmed Osborn up 47% to Fischer’s 42% in a survey of doubtless voters within the state. An Osborn-commissioned SurveyUSA ballot performed final month discovered the unbiased up 45% to Fischer’s 44%. And in Nebraska’s second congressional district, which is dwelling to Omaha and is essentially the most evenly divided district within the state, a New York Occasions/Siena ballot launched late final month confirmed Osborn main Fischer by 11 factors. There isn’t any Democrat within the race. The surveys recommend the Nebraska Senate race is among the many closest within the nation, in keeping with 538’s polling averages.
Republicans have a good Senate map this yr, with pickup alternatives throughout quite a lot of states and few seats to defend. And though Nebraska is taken into account extra pleasant to Republicans than the 2 states — Texas and Florida — that Democrats have eyed, Osborn’s problem seems to be a formidable one within the uncommon race.
“It is extra aggressive than it must be,” Randall Adkins, a professor of political science on the College of Nebraska-Omaha, stated of the Nebraska Senate race.
Osborn led the strike at Omaha’s Kellogg plant in 2021, gaining some nationwide consideration within the course of. However the 49-year-old is a political newcomer. And he is leaned right into a populist message to pledge to steer the state as an unbiased who will work for Nebraskans, whereas portray his opponent as an institution politician managed by company pursuits.
The unbiased candidate touted the polls in a press release to CBS Information, saying they “match up with what I am seeing throughout Nebraska.”
“Our message of standing up for small companies, household farmers, and dealing households is resonating as a result of Nebraskans desire a senator who listens to them, who reveals up for them and who will probably be a powerful voice for them within the Senate,” Osborn stated.
ANDREW CABALLERO-REYNOLDS/AFP through Getty Photographs
Osborn’s opponent, Fischer, has been within the Senate for greater than a decade and serves on the highly effective armed providers and appropriations committees. The 73-year-old two-term incumbent who’s a dependable GOP vote within the Senate has gained comparatively simply within the pink state and hasn’t had an issue elevating cash, so her race wasn’t anticipated to be a aggressive one. Adkins thinks Fischer might have taken her reelection marketing campaign as a right.
“I do not assume that the Fisher marketing campaign realized how aggressive this race was going to be,” Adkins stated, including that it was “radio silence” from the incumbent all summer season, whereas Osborn was working “beneath the radar.”
“He was simply kind of conserving quiet,” Adkins stated of Osborne. “And we get to September, and it is inside the margin of error.”
The marketing campaign has ramped up in current weeks. Fischer, a cattle rancher, has touted an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, together with a brand new commercial targeted on her backing from former Rep. Tom Osborne, long-time coach of the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Osborne clarifies within the commercial that he would not know the unbiased candidate of an identical identify.
In the meantime, the Nationwide Republican Senatorial Committee has positioned $522,000 in commercial spending and reservations within the race, in keeping with AdImpact.
The spending comes as Osborn has seen a flood of investments to his marketing campaign. Total, outdoors spending supporting the unbiased has climbed to $4 million, in keeping with OpenSecrets. A lot of that comes from the Retire Profession Politicians PAC, which receives substantial donations from a left-leaning darkish cash group referred to as the Sixteen Thirty Fund.
The investments underscore that the race may very well be inside placing distance for Osborn.
In the meantime, Fischer and Republican allies have derided the unbiased as a “Democrat in disguise.”
“Dan Osborn claims to be an unbiased, however he is funded by the identical billionaire Democrats supporting Kamala Harris, helps mass amnesty and social safety for unlawful immigrants, and was caught on tape saying he loves Bernie Sanders,” the Fischer marketing campaign stated in a press release to CBS Information. “When Nebraskans study that Dan Osborn is a liberal Democrat in disguise, they will not stand for it.”
Osborn has pledged to not caucus for both occasion if he is elected to the Senate, the place 4 independents presently caucus with Democrats. And shortly after the first, he stated he would not settle for endorsements from any facet of the political spectrum.
“Individuals are popping out of the woodwork now,” he informed reporters in Could. “I need to be clear that I am an unbiased. I need to keep true to who I’m, and that’s an unbiased. I am unable to be charmed, I am unable to be schmoozed, I will not suck as much as anybody, and most significantly — I can’t be purchased.”
On the problems, the unbiased has expressed positions usually shared by moderates — like opposition to nationwide abortion restrictions, together with assist for “cheap gun security measures” and stronger border safety.
Nebraska has almost twice as many registered Republicans as Democrats, making Democrats’ bids within the state usually fruitless. Certainly, a Democrat hasn’t held statewide workplace in Nebraska since 2012. And Trump gained Nebraska by almost 20 factors in 2020.
However Nebraska can also be dwelling to almost as many nonpartisan voters as Democrats, that means the 2 teams might feasibly come collectively to rival the variety of registered Republicans within the state to elect a candidate, regardless of the state’s leanings.
Nonetheless, earlier Senate bids from unbiased candidates in pink states beneath comparable circumstances have finally fallen brief, like in Utah in 2022 and Alaska in 2020. The Cook dinner Political Report, which shifted the race‘s score late final month from strong to doubtless Republican, cited the outcomes in an evaluation, whereas noting that Osborn’s background differs from the opposite unbiased candidates.
Adkins stated one thing is being “examined right here that we’ve not seen in Nebraska earlier than,” the place the minority occasion would not area a candidate when a average or unbiased candidate is operating, bucking the everyday dynamic the place the race is all-but determined after the Republican major.
“This marketing campaign simply bought began,” he stated.
