Whereas we cursed Dontayvion Wicks’ palms and Roschon Johnson’s productiveness (2.5 YPC), the props nonetheless popped final week. Daniel Dopp and I delivered on 4 of our six wagers, together with two QB picks that have been listed at plus odds.
We’ll purpose to remain equal elements constant and daring in Week 6. With 4 groups on bye and accidents ravaging the operating again place, there is a good quantity of uncertainty to take advantage of.
Let’s dig in! — Liz Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the most recent odds, go to ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
0:33
Will Jalen Hurts get going vs. the Browns?
Dan Orlovsky discusses why he takes the Eagles over the Browns in Week 6.
Jalen Hurts OVER 224.5 passing yards (-130)
Loza: Hurts has cleared the above line in two of 4 video games this season. A kind of outings featured the abilities of A.J. Brown, who’s reportedly wholesome and anticipated to start out Sunday. DeVonta Smith may even be returning, offering the Philadelphia Eagles receiver corps with a much-needed increase.
As 9.5-point favorites versus a hapless Cleveland Browns squad, there’s an opportunity Hurts will not have to cross all that a lot. Popping out of a bye and with the Eagles at 2-2, nonetheless, I am unable to think about Hurts will not need to make a press release. It is a Tremendous Bowl-contending squad at the moment ranked third in a surprisingly aggressive NFC East. I anticipate Hurts to get again on monitor and placed on a present at house.
Working again props
0:45
Why Area Yates says David Montgomery needs to be in all fantasy lineups
Area Yates explains why David Montgomery needs to be again in fantasy lineups with the Lions getting back from a bye.
David Montgomery 10+ receiving yards (-110)
Dopp: Let’s begin with the shortest odds of my three props. Montgomery is not often known as the pass-catching again out of this Detroit Lions backfield — that title goes to the dynamic Jahmyr Gibbs — nevertheless it does not imply Montgomery lacks good passing-game chops.
Let’s begin with the opposing workforce’s protection. The Dallas Cowboys’ defensive position is banged up in a foul method. DeMarcus Lawrence is on IR and Micah Parsons, Eric Kendricks and Marshawn Kneeland have all been dominated out for Sunday. I am anticipating the Lions to lean on the run recreation, however with the books understanding the Cowboys’ damage woes, I do not love the place the dashing strains are as of this writing. I do, nonetheless, like Montgomery to have 10+ receiving yards, a line he has reached in three straight video games (eight catches for 92 yards in that span).
Do not let the truth that he is primarily often known as a between-the-tackles, ground-and-pound operating again dissuade you from his passing-game prowess. I am anticipating this offense to proceed to search out methods to get the ball into the palms of those two operating backs, and that ought to embrace sufficient passing-game work to hit this modest line. Give me 10+ receiving yards for Montgomery, and when you’re at it, go watch this indignant 40-yard reception he had towards the Seahawks in Week 4 for a little bit further motivation.
Huge receiver prop
0:40
CeeDee Lamb’s Week 6 fantasy outlook
Take a look at the stats behind CeeDee Lamb’s begin to the season as he’s set to face the Lions in Week 6.
CeeDee Lamb 100+ receiving yards (+140)
Dopp: We’re going daring right here. Everybody is aware of the Lions may be taken benefit of by means of the air. We have seen it occur with Chris Godwin, Cooper Kupp and DK Metcalf all reaching 100+ receiving yards towards Detroit this season. That is three large receivers in 4 weeks, and I am anticipating that quantity to bump as much as 4 WRs in 5 weeks for a few causes.
First, Lamb has but to have a increase recreation in 2024. His greatest receiving output was reaching 98 yards in Week 4 towards the Giants, and he has been underneath 70 yards in three of his 5 video games this season. That is not the Lamb we have come to know in Dallas. We anticipate greater video games from the proficient 25-year-old who topped 100 yards eight occasions final season, together with in a Week 17 matchup towards this Lions workforce that resulted in 17 targets for 13 receptions and 227 receiving yards. Whereas I am not anticipating a 200-yard outing, I do anticipate to see one thing nearer to that than the 60-yard video games he has been placing up.
Second, the Cowboys are underdogs at house, which suggests we should always see numerous alternatives within the passing recreation. We all know how good the Lions’ run protection has been not too long ago, and I anticipate that development to proceed with the shortage of dashing firepower in Dallas today (no offense to Rico Dowdle). At 52.5, this recreation has the best whole on the board at ESPN BET. With the Lions favored to win by 3.5 factors on the highway, the Cowboys ought to should lean on their air assault to maneuver the ball down the sphere. And with no Brandin Cooks, this goal tree has shrunk to Lamb, Jake Ferguson and Jalen Tolbert. If that is not a scenario for Lamb to get some further work, I do not know what’s.
Every part strains up for a shootout, and I am following go well with and taking Lamb cross the 100-yard barrier. Additionally, if you wish to tack on an anytime TD only for kicks, that two-leg parlay would are available in at +240, one thing that I am completely doing as nicely.
Xavier Legette OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-105)
Loza: Surprisingly sturdy given his 4.39 velocity, Legette brings a much-needed physicality to the Carolina Panthers receiving squad. He has been in a position to showcase his spectacular ability set since Adam Thielen’s early departure in Week 3. In truth, Legette labored in a full-time capability in Week 4, recording a snap share of 90% and posting a 6-66-1 stat line towards the Bengals.
He was, sadly, knocked out of final Sunday’s recreation due to a shoulder damage, however he logged a full week of observe heading into the weekend. Regardless of the missed time, Legette ranks second amongst Carolina’s cross catchers in targets (11) and receiving yards (74) over the previous two outings. He figures to be closely focused as Andy Dalton chases factors in a recreation towards the Falcons (6-point favorites) that is projected to be pretty excessive scoring (47.5).
With Diontae Johnson doubtless to attract main protection from A.J. Terrell, Legette ought to capitalize on his alternatives. I anticipate him to catch not less than 4 balls for upward of 45 receiving yards.
0:30
Why Daniel Dopp likes Marvin Harrison Jr. to shine vs. Packers
Daniel Dopp breaks down why he sees Marvin Harrison Jr. being a high quality fantasy possibility in Week 6.
Marvin Harrison Jr. OVER 59.5 receiving yards (Even)
Dopp: Harrison has had a little bit of a back-and-forth begin to his rookie season. Some video games he is the clear alpha for Kyler Murray, showcasing the abilities that made him the fourth total decide within the 2024 NFL draft, and a few video games it appears as if Murray forgets he even exists as a main passing-game possibility. I am anticipating the previous on this Week 6 matchup towards the Inexperienced Bay Packers, particularly with Harrison coming off a dud efficiency (two catches, 36 yards) final week towards the 49ers.
Harrison has hit this mark solely twice out of his 5 video games this season, however his 25% goal share ought to preserve him lots concerned towards a Packers secondary that has allowed six totally different receivers to hit this mark. That is not a typo. A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, DeVonta Smith and DeAndre Hopkins are the family names to beat that mark, however Jordan Whittington and Jordan Addison additionally hit not less than 70 yards, and Tutu Atwell and Alec Pierce each had over 55 yards. We’re speaking about eight large receivers who’ve hit or practically hit this line towards a what has been a smooth Packers secondary.
A part of the issue for Inexperienced Bay has been the absence of Jaire Alexander, who was restricted in all three practices this weeks and comes into this matchup with a questionable damage designation. That is a type of spots the place I am believing within the expertise of Harrison to reap the benefits of the Packers for a giant rebound recreation.
Tight finish props
Zach Ertz OVER 29.5 receiving yards (Even)
Loza: Many people fantasy heads predicted Ertz would have an early season resurgence and delay the Ben Sinnott arrival parade. As a decent finish, Ertz had defied age (and gravity), logging the second-most routes run (115), targets drawn (24), receptions reeled in (17) and receiving yards recorded (160) amongst Washington’s cross catchers. Ertz moreover ranks a stunning second on the place in aDOT (8.2), having emerged as a dependable veteran for electrical younger QB Jayden Daniels.
The 33-year-old may not ship the identical YAC (or subsequent ceiling) he as soon as did, however he’s producing as a slot praise to Terry McLaurin. He figures to be leaned upon early and infrequently Sunday with the Commanders a 6.5-point underdog at Baltimore.
Coincidentally, the Ravens have given up the second-most receiving yards to opposing tight ends so far in 2024. Ertz figures to cruise previous 30 yards, in a recreation with the second-highest projected level whole (51.5) amongst this week’s slate.
