NFL midseason predictions for each workforce: Kirk Cousins wins comeback award; NFC East champ is …?

The primary half of the NFL’s 18-week common season is over and workforce rosters are set following the shut of the 2024 commerce window on Tuesday afternoon.

So what can we count on from the league’s 32 groups within the closing 9 weeks? Which gamers may have huge performances? Which groups will win their divisions — or fall brief? Which groups could be going through a training or front-office shakeup? Our NFL writers addressed these matters and extra in making one prediction for each workforce heading into the season’s second half.

Arizona will enter its closing recreation with an opportunity to win the NFC West

After an embarrassing Week 6 loss at Inexperienced Bay, the Cardinals had a ten % probability to win the West, per The Athletic’s projection mannequin, worst among the many division’s 4 groups. Since then, the Cardinals have gained three in a row, their longest win streak since 2021. And their possibilities for profitable the West have elevated to a division-best 37 %. This workforce developments in the fitting route. Serving to issues: Arizona’s remaining eight opponents are 29-40, which provides the Cardinals the simplest schedule amongst West groups. In Week 18, San Francisco visits Arizona. That recreation decides the division title. — Doug Haller

Kirk Cousins will win NFL Comeback Participant of the Yr

One yr after tearing his Achilles tendon in Week 8, Cousins is fourth within the league in passing touchdowns (17), sixth in yards per recreation (258.7) and ninth in passer score (101.9). His stiffest competitors will come from Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow. Burrow is forward of Cousins in each important passing class, however two components are working in Cousins’ favor. First, Burrow has already gained the award (2021). Second, the Falcons have two extra wins than the Bengals, who’re in peril of lacking the playoffs. If Cousins can snap Atlanta’s postseason drought, that ought to push him previous Burrow. — Josh Kendall

Lamar Jackson will win third MVP award

Solely six gamers in NFL historical past have garnered MVP honors three or extra instances, however Jackson has put himself in place to win his third by taking part in the most effective soccer of his profession. He was a near-unanimous MVP selection final yr, however he’s taken his recreation and Baltimore’s offense to a different stage by doing extra on the line of scrimmage, bettering his accuracy, making higher selections and attacking each quadrant of the sector. Jared Goff, Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry have all performed their method into the MVP dialogue, and there’s loads of time for others to enter the combo. Nevertheless, Jackson is broadly thought-about the midseason front-runner. So long as he stays wholesome, there’s no cause to count on a drop-off. He’s on tempo to complete with 4,494 passing yards, 38 landing passes, 4 interceptions and 954 dashing yards. It will likely be powerful to remain on that tempo, however the recreation has slowed down for Jackson this yr and he has the most effective offensive supporting forged he’s ever had. Why would you guess in opposition to him? — Jeff Zrebiec

Khalil Shakir will accumulate his first profession 1,000-yard season

After a wonderful finish to the 2023 season, Shakir has picked up the place he left off because the workforce’s major slot receiver. Most significantly, he’s turn into one in all Allen’s most trusted belongings. He’s a relaxing pressure and as regular as they arrive, roping in virtually each go thrown his method. On prime of that, his yards-after-catch capacity has been excellent all yr, possessing nice contact steadiness and offering a superb shake on defenders within the open discipline earlier than contact. Shakir’s position is safe, and so long as he stays wholesome, he’s acquired a authentic probability to guide the Payments in receiving in 2024. — Joe Buscaglia

Chuba Hubbard will rush for 1,100 yards … and get a brand new contract

The Panthers haven’t had a 1,000-yard rusher since Christian McCaffrey in 2019. However Hubbard will hit that mark after which some. The fourth-year again is on tempo to complete with 1,256 yards, which might be the fourth-highest whole in workforce historical past. Even with the Panthers activating rookie working again Jonathon Brooks this week, Hubbard will stay the workhorse within the backfield. Hubbard has impressed along with his powerful, downfield working model, his work ethic and his robust management within the locker room. He’s the kind of participant first-year coach Dave Canales desires to construct round, so search for the Panthers to increase Hubbard earlier than the top of the season to maintain him from hitting free company. — Joseph Particular person

The Bears will pull off one other upset of the Lions

It’s not a loopy prediction for those who do not forget that the Bears ought to have crushed the Lions twice final season. The Bears blew a 12-point lead within the closing 4:15 in a 31-26 loss of their first assembly in Detroit. However three weeks later, the Bears protection overwhelmed quarterback Jared Goff in a 28-13 win at Soldier Area after the workforce’s bye week. Perhaps Eberflus has a superb learn on Goff with a greater protection to ship after him. Perhaps this would be the Bears’ solely victory in what nonetheless seems like the most effective division within the NFL. — Adam Jahns

Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals will make playoffs in the event that they beat Chargers, Broncos

You’ll be able to slim the Bengals’ playoff image down to 2 vital, high-leverage video games. It will be protected to imagine they need to be counted on to beat the Titans, Browns and Cowboys, all battling poor quarterback play. Preventing again to win the AFC North is all however off the board. So, they’ll try and rise to the sixth or seventh wild card, acknowledging it’ll take 10 — doubtlessly 9 — wins to make it occur. The Colts, Broncos and Chargers are within the combine with Cincinnati. The Bengals journey to Los Angeles on Nov. 17 and host Denver the final weekend in December. There’s an opportunity the Steelers come again to the pack with a brutal second-half schedule, and the Bengals might want to at the very least break up in opposition to them, however gaining these tiebreakers in opposition to Denver and Los Angeles has a terrific probability to forged the deciding vote in a kind of seeds. — Paul Dehner Jr.

Cleveland Browns

Browns shake up entrance workplace and transfer on from both their GM or chief technique officer (or each)

Contemplating the failures of the Deshaun Watson commerce, the offensive line carousel in 2024, the contract uncertainty throughout the offense going ahead and the variety of draft misses, I simply can’t think about workforce house owners Jimmy and Dee Haslam viewing this huge failure as acceptable. Quite a bit can occur within the subsequent two months, but when the costliest roster in NFL historical past produces three or 4 wins, it’s onerous to see the Haslams permitting this front-office group to make essential selections going ahead. — Zac Jackson

Dallas Cowboys

Brandon Aubrey will set the report for longest discipline purpose

Aubrey virtually had an opportunity to set the report in Week 1, when he made a 66-yarder in Cleveland that didn’t depend on account of a penalty and the following 71-yard try was known as off by holder Bryan Anger. The Cowboys are about to be led by backup quarterback Cooper Rush for the foreseeable future. There’s an honest probability the offense stalls round midfield and the Cowboys get determined for factors. There’s additionally the truth that of the remaining 9 video games for the Cowboys, six are within the comfy confines of AT&T Stadium. Perhaps Aubrey doesn’t get an opportunity fairly from 70-plus yards however one thing a hair over 66 yards wouldn’t be stunning. — Saad Yousuf

Denver Broncos

Courtland Sutton will turn into Broncos’ first 1,000-yard receiver since 2019

Because the begin of the 2020 season, no Broncos participant has had 1,000 dashing or receiving yards. Each different NFL workforce has put a participant in at the very least a kind of classes throughout that stretch — and most groups have checked each packing containers. Sutton can finish the Broncos’ streak. Sutton produced the workforce’s final 1,000-yard receiving season as a second-year participant in 2019 (1,112). Phillip Lindsay squeaked his method over the edge with 1,011 dashing yards that season. Sutton has 499 receiving yards on 36 catches this season, which leaves him on tempo for about 943 yards. Nevertheless, his numbers embrace a recreation in opposition to the Saints wherein he wasn’t focused. Since then, he’s produced back-to-back 100-yard receiving video games for the primary time in his profession. Sutton has turn into extra of a downfield risk in current weeks and figures to broaden that position as he grows his chemistry with rookie quarterback Bo Nix. That ought to be sufficient for Sutton to succeed in the elusive milestone. — Nick Kosmider

Detroit Lions

The NFC will run by way of Detroit

At 7-1, the Lions have the most effective report within the NFC. After a sluggish begin, Ben Johnson’s offense seems prefer it’s taken one other leap. Jared Goff is dialed in and the Lions aren’t asking him to do an excessive amount of, which has allowed him to finish passes at a near-75 % clip. Detroit has probably the most environment friendly dashing offense in soccer and all kinds of playmakers. Even with out Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit ranks fifth in factors per recreation allowed because of a good red-zone protection and an opportunistic security tandem of Brian Department and Kerby Joseph. The addition of Za’Darius Smith ought to assist bolster the defensive position. This workforce has all of the makings of a No. 1 seed, and I believe they get it finished. — Colton Pouncy

Xavier McKinney might be named a first-team All-Professional

The Packers lead the NFL in takeaways by way of 9 weeks with 19, largely due to their free-agent signing at security. McKinney is tied for first within the NFL with six interceptions. There have been three video games wherein he hasn’t intercepted a go. Towards the Cardinals, Kyler Murray solely tried three passes of at the very least 15 air yards, per Subsequent Gen Stats. Towards the Texans, C.J. Stroud tried 5. Towards the Lions, Jared Goff tried two. Groups aren’t taking pictures downfield, probably as a result of McKinney worries them. Most gamers within the NFL are dedicated to their craft, however defensive backs coach Ryan Downard informed a neat story about McKinney final week. Downard and McKinney had been on completely different buses on the best way from the Jaguars’ stadium to the airport after the Packers’ Week 8 win, however McKinney needed a head begin on Lions preparation. McKinney texted Downard, who has been on Inexperienced Bay’s defensive employees since 2018, about his familiarity taking part in the Lions. “He was urging me, encouraging me, to get him that tape as quickly as potential,” Downard stated. — Matt Schneidman

Houston Texans

Houston will repeat as AFC South champion

The Texans don’t have the simplest second-half schedule. It begins with a house recreation in opposition to Detroit, proceeds with a run of struggling opponents (Dallas, Tennessee, Jacksonville and Miami), after which comes back-to-back dates with Kansas Metropolis and Baltimore earlier than a finale in opposition to Tennessee. Shifting up from their present fourth-place spot within the AFC will show difficult however the Texans, at 3-0 within the AFC South, have a wholesome division lead. The Titans and Jaguars are battling for one of many prime draft picks, and the Colts are restricted. Houston will repeat as AFC South champions and attempt to carry that momentum into the postseason. — Mike Jones

Indianapolis Colts

Anthony Richardson won’t play once more this season

When Colts head coach Shane Steichen benched Richardson in favor of 39-year-old Joe Flacco, that was the nail within the coffin of Richardson’s six-game reign as QB1 this season. Indianapolis will sink or swim with Flacco. If the workforce stacks wins and makes the playoffs, the reasoning for the change might be simpler to justify. Nevertheless, if the Colts pile up losses, it could be a horrible search for the franchise to return to Richardson and ask him to attempt to steer a sinking ship. — James Boyd

Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville might be a sought-after vacation spot if there’s a training change

If coach Doug Pederson doesn’t create sufficient momentum towards 2025, the Jaguars will probably substitute him, and there’s cause to consider it’ll be a coveted job with the possibility to faucet into Trevor Lawrence’s potential and work for an proprietor who has devoted important sources into the amenities in recent times. Teaching candidates hope for 2 built-in sources: a franchise quarterback and stability from possession. The Jaguars have been trending extra in that route than earlier in Shad Khan’s stewardship. — Jeff Howe

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

DeAndre Hopkins will lead the Chiefs in receiving touchdowns

This could possibly be a knee-jerk response after Hopkins’ spectacular begin with the Chiefs since they acquired him two weeks in the past from the Titans. However Hopkins is the Chiefs’ most sure-handed receiver and he can nonetheless win one-on-one matchups, which he did Sunday in scoring two touchdowns in opposition to the Buccaneers. Do you know rookie Xavier Worthy leads the Chiefs with simply three receiving touchdowns? Most opponents will nonetheless concentrate on Travis Kelce within the purple zone, which ought to result in loads of alternatives for Patrick Mahomes to seek out Hopkins ultimately zone. — Nate Taylor

Antonio Pierce will make it to Yr 2 as head coach

Because the Raiders’ season has gone off the rails, hypothesis about Pierce’s job safety has intensified. His in-game decision-making has been closely criticized and the teaching employees hasn’t been capable of finding any constant success. However proprietor Mark Davis isn’t itching to make his third teaching change in three years. He hoped the Raiders can be extra aggressive, however he knew Pierce was inexperienced and would endure rising pains.

“He’s younger as a head coach. He’s studying be a head coach,” Davis stated final month. “He’s surrounded himself with loads of good folks. He’s simply acquired to develop into the job. It’s his first yr, actually. What he did final yr was phenomenal. … We’ll be OK.” — Vic Tafur and Tashan Reed

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert might be MVP of the second half

Herbert is taking part in among the greatest soccer of his profession for the reason that bye. His accuracy is on level. He’s pushing the ball downfield with out taking an excessive amount of danger. His mobility is bettering as time passes since his early-season high-ankle sprain. That’s resulting in scramble yards, spectacular sack avoidance and off-script playmaking. The harm and sluggish begin will stop him from getting into the MVP dialog in earnest. However the previous two video games are up there with among the greatest quarterbacking I’ve seen from Herbert. If he can keep wholesome, I believe he’s going to be the most effective participant within the league over the second half of the season. — Daniel Popper

Rams will keep sizzling by way of November and December

The Rams will most definitely get beginning middle/guard Jonah Jackson again from IR for this week’s recreation in opposition to Miami, and will even get beginning guard Steve Avila again as effectively relying on how his observe week goes. Second-year receiver Puka Nacua will get more healthy after a scare along with his knee final week (and he’ll keep in video games, too, after studying from his ejection in opposition to Seattle). Los Angeles has gained three consecutive video games and heated up round this time in 2023, too. If Matthew Stafford and working again Kyren Williams can get this offense off the bottom within the go and run phases as a substitute of stalling out on drives, the Rams might be harmful in November and make a playoff push. — Jourdan Rodrigue

Miami Dolphins

The Dolphins might be competing for a wild-card spot in Week 18

Making the playoffs looks like a far-fetched proposition for 2-6 Miami, however there’s cause to hold on to some hope. The Dolphins have one of many best remaining schedules within the NFL, and the center class of the AFC isn’t precisely full of world-beaters. If quarterback Tua Tagovailoa can keep wholesome and get this offense buzzing once more, Miami might climb again into the race. Granted, this could be a kind of conditions the place the Dolphins want loads of breaks to go their method on the final days of the yr, however they’re not out of the hunt but. — Jim Ayello

The Vikings will win at the very least 11 video games

The Vikings’ preseason projected win whole was 6 1/2. Midway in, they’re already at six. Minnesota has one of the productive defenses within the NFL and an offense loaded on the ability positions. And the Vikings’ schedule will get simpler going ahead: Their subsequent six video games are in opposition to the Jaguars, Titans, Bears, Cardinals, Falcons and Bears. All are winnable, and they need to creep nearer to 11. In the event that they get there — contemplating the preseason expectations in a transition yr — head coach Kevin O’Connell, defensive coordinator Brian Flores and this locker room deserve a ton of credit score. — Alec Lewis

Drake Maye may have a greater second half than Caleb Williams

After sitting on the bench for the primary 5 video games, Drake Maye has been the whole lot the Patriots hoped for. The rookie is actually going to have some hiccups alongside the best way, as evidenced by his 9 turnover-worthy performs, per Professional Soccer Focus. However Maye will proceed to guide this boom-or-bust offense, and his capacity to scramble is necessary for a Patriots workforce poor alongside the offensive line and at vast receiver. That is much less a knock on Williams and extra a praise of Maye. Oh, and New England’s subsequent recreation? That may be Sunday in opposition to Williams’ Chicago Bears. — Chad Graff

New Orleans Saints

The Saints will end with their worst report since 2005

The dumpster exterior the Saints’ observe facility is formally engulfed with flames. The workforce has been humiliated in back-to-back weeks after being pummeled by Sean Payton and the Broncos at dwelling, adopted by a one-point loss at Carolina. New Orleans has a seven-game shedding streak, the longest for the reason that Mike Ditka-led Saints in 1999, and now Dennis Allen has been fired. However what number of wins can this workforce compile with Darren Rizzi as interim head coach? My ceiling for the Saints is 4 wins, which might be the fewest for the reason that 2005 season, marred by Hurricane Katrina and earlier than Payton and Drew Brees arrived in New Orleans. — Larry Holder

QB Daniel Jones will get benched after the Giants’ Week 11 bye

It may not be the primary recreation out of the bye (Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay), nevertheless it’s coming. Even when Jones is taking part in effectively, which he has at instances this season, it’s going to be powerful for him to outrun the harm assure in his contract and the entire shedding. Ultimately, it’s the outcomes that matter, and the Giants are 2-7 and mired in a four-game shedding streak. If the losses maintain piling up, it’ll give coach Brian Daboll the rationale he must make a change. — Charlotte Carroll

The Jets will end 8-9

Eight wins would imply the Jets completed the season on a 6-3 run. In the end, I believe they dug themselves in too deep a gap to show all of it the best way round and make the playoffs. Followers (understandably) wouldn’t be proud of falling in need of the postseason for the 14th straight yr, however that end could be sufficient to persuade proprietor Woody Johnson to run it again with Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Jeff Ulbrich in 2025. Whether or not that may be the fitting determination is one other matter. — Zack Rosenblatt

The Eagles will win the NFC East for second time in Nick Sirianni period

The Washington Commanders (7-2) are unquestionably sizzling. However, as a result of deplorable run protection, they don’t match up effectively in opposition to Philadelphia. The Eagles (6-2), whose younger protection continues to enhance, are steadily taking part in their greatest soccer. As long as they be taught to remain out of their very own method, a sweep of the Commanders is feasible. Philadelphia nonetheless should play the Rams (4-4) and Ravens (6-3), however Washington, too, has toss-up video games remaining in opposition to the Steelers (6-2) and Falcons (6-3). And the Eagles have managed to win video games regardless of dangerous luck and dangerous selections. — Brooks Kubena

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers will snap a seven-year playoff win drought

Eight seasons in, T.J. Watt has the makings of a Corridor of Fame resume. He’s a six-time Professional Bowler, four-time first-team All-Professional and the 2021 Defensive Participant of the Yr. However one factor he hasn’t finished? Win a playoff recreation.

That can change this yr. Watt is the catalyst for the NFL’s second-best scoring protection, which has been close to championship-caliber for a lot of the 5 years since Minkah Fitzpatrick arrived in 2019 — ok to push Pittsburgh into the playoffs however to not overcome a dysfunctional offense. With Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson, the Steelers lastly have sufficient offense. This would be the yr that coach Mike Tomlin wins his first playoff recreation since 2016 and Watt lastly advances past the opening spherical of the playoffs. — Mike DeFabo

San Francisco 49ers

The 49ers might be neck and neck with one rival

The 49ers, who’re projected by The Athletic’s mannequin to have a 38 % probability to make the playoffs, most likely should win their division to get in and their greatest competitors for that honor would be the Rams.

The Rams, the workforce that embraced buying and selling away draft picks a couple of years in the past, have come full circle in making robust alternatives in current seasons that promise to gas their future success.

The groups’ Week 15 rematch in Levi’s Stadium — a Thursday evening affair — might be large. And the 49ers’ season finale, a throwaway recreation final season, already looms giant contemplating it’s in opposition to a division opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers fell to in Week 5. — Matt Barrows

Seattle Seahawks

DK Metcalf might be Seattle’s solely Professional Bowler

The Seahawks have 4 returning Professional Bowlers (Julian Love, Devon Witherspoon, DK Metcalf and Geno Smith), together with two alternates (Metcalf and Smith). All 4 are having first rate seasons, nevertheless it appears like an extended shot for anybody exterior of Metcalf to be named to the unique poll this yr.

This prediction is predicated on a theme by way of the primary half of the season: Seattle has not constantly maximized the expertise on its roster. Smith, Love, Witherspoon, Riq Woolen, Leonard Williams, Boye Mafe, Derick Corridor and Ken Walker III have elite expertise, however that’s not being mirrored within the on-field product with any regularity. — Michael-Shawn Dugar

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans will get to 1,000 receiving yards

By means of 9 video games, Evans has solely 335 receiving yards, which makes him the third-leading receiver on the Bucs and the Sixty fifth-leading receiver within the NFL. And he’s at present out with a hamstring harm. However there are causes to consider Evans will end robust. He has a historical past of taking part in by way of accidents, so it isn’t unreasonable to assume he can return on Nov. 24 in opposition to the Giants, which might give him seven video games to get 665 yards. That additionally would give him three extra weeks of therapeutic. When he does return, he’ll probably be the centerpiece of the Bucs’ offense, which now’s lacking Chris Godwin. And Evans might be motivated. If he will get to 1,000, he’ll tie Jerry Rice’s report for many consecutive 1,000-yard seasons with 11. — Dan Pompei

Tennessee Titans

Will Levis will return and play his method out of the Titans’ future plans

It’s in fact potential that Levis, whose sore proper shoulder has saved him out of three straight video games, might come again and put all of it collectively. He most likely doesn’t must put it “all” collectively to be a part of some type of QB competitors heading into 2025. However Levis’ play earlier than he acquired harm was so discouraging — not seeing the sector effectively sufficient, seeing issues late, lacking throws even when he noticed them, taking wild dangers — that it’s onerous to think about sufficient of a reversal this season. The Titans want to provide him as a lot alternative as potential, although, earlier than resolving to provide you with a brand new plan at QB. — Joe Rexrode

Washington Commanders

Rookie Mike Sainristil will make huge strides

Sainristil, a second-round cornerback with extra physicality than his 5-foot-10 physique suggests, lived contained in the strains by way of two video games. Based on PFF, Sainristil performed 76 of 101 snaps from the slot. However issues modified by Week 3. Emmanuel Forbes Jr. wanted thumb surgical procedure after the season opener. His substitute, Michael Davis, misplaced his spot within the rotation after Giants rookie Malik Nabers torched the eight-year veteran. Since Noah Igbinoghene primarily helps within the slot, the teaching employees moved Sainristil to the perimeter. Sainristil performed 61 of 62 snaps on the skin within the Monday evening victory at Cincinnati. Of his 64 snaps in Sunday’s win over the Giants, 56 had been out vast.

We’ve seen the fearless tackler enter the fray regardless of his restricted measurement. Assuming not too long ago acquired Marshon Lattimore and Benjamin St-Juste are the tandem in two-cornerback units, Sainristil would sit down in three-safety seems. Whatever the variety of snaps he will get, Sainristil might be taking part in his extra pure place within the slot, which ought to improve his improvement and manufacturing. — Ben Standig

(High illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photographs of Khalil Shakir, Kirk Cousins,and Xavier McKinney: Perry Knotts, Cooper Neill and Ric Tapia / Getty Photos)