NFL Panic Meter: How nervous ought to Lions, Chiefs and Steelers be? Sando’s Decide Six

The Detroit Lions and Kansas Metropolis Chiefs entered Week 15 as betting favorites to win the Tremendous Bowl.

That was earlier than Chiefs famous person quarterback Patrick Mahomes limped off the sphere Sunday, leaving backup Carson Wentz to complete a 21-7 victory over the Cleveland Browns.

It was additionally earlier than the Lions’ injury-depleted protection misplaced three extra gamers, reaching a possible breaking level in a 48-42 residence defeat to the Buffalo Payments (Detroit trailed by 17 within the fourth quarter and 13 within the remaining minute).

Each the Lions and Chiefs misplaced floor amongst oddsmakers within the aftermath.

The Decide Six column this week calibrates the Panic Meter for the Lions, Chiefs and a spread of groups dealing with potential crises, together with the Pittsburgh Steelers (T.J. Watt’s ankle), Seattle Seahawks (Geno Smith’s knee), the Los Angeles Chargers (40-17 losers) and the San Francisco 49ers (Brock Purdy’s struggles). How nervous ought to these groups be? The complete Decide Six menu this week:

• Panic Meter: Lions, Chiefs and extra
• Distinction for Vikings’ Darnold
• Halas Corridor intrigue for Bears
• Belichick’s non-schematic edge
• Browns’ QB resolution: Not one of the above?
• 2-minute drill: MVP race replace

1. Week 15 delivered greater than its share of scares for contending groups (and others who hoped to contend). Let’s get away the Panic Meter to place them into perspective on a 1-10 scale.

Earlier than working by way of the Panic Meter, we think about how Tremendous Bowl odds, through BetMGM, modified after Sunday. The Lions’ possibilities took the toughest hit, as Philadelphia practically drew even with Detroit after its 27-13 victory over the Steelers. The Chiefs additionally slipped some, with the Payments making the most important leap.

• Lions lose extra manpower on protection: Degree 8 of 10 on the Panic Meter

If coach Dan Campbell hinted at his concern for the Lions’ protection final week when he went for it on fourth-and-1 late in a tie sport in opposition to Inexperienced Bay, he shouted it Sunday by making an attempt an onside kick with 12 minutes left in a sport Detroit trailed 38-28. The Lions trailed within the sport by 11.1 factors on a per-play common, their worst common deficit since final season, per TruMedia.

The Payments jumped to a 35-14 lead on their strategy to 559 complete yards.

Detroit fought again, however the Lions’ possibilities light as accidents knocked out defensive deal with Alim McNeill, beginning cornerback Carlton Davis and backup nook Khalil Dorsey. Campell stated Dorsey (fractured leg) is completed for the season, and McNeill (torn ACL) is simply too, whereas Davis (fractured jaw) would possibly return provided that the Lions attain the NFC Championship or Tremendous Bowl. (In the meantime, on offense, working again David Montgomery is out indefinitely, per experiences.)

These accidents felt like ending blows to a protection that had already misplaced famous person cross rusher Aidan Hutchinson and eight different defenders from its two-deep depth chart. Are the Lions nonetheless harmful? In fact. However they’re having a tougher time controlling video games in opposition to sturdy opponents.

The desk beneath highlights the Lions’ depth chart because it appeared on Ourlads.com on Sept. 1. Gentle pink shading reveals gamers already on reserve lists earlier than Sunday. Darker pink shading singles out the gamers who have been misplaced in opposition to the Payments.

The Lions confirmed they might maintain scoring in opposition to the Payments to maintain the sport from getting additional out of hand. However they have been holding on.

“It’s the mark of a great head coach to have the ability to adapt,” a coach from one other group stated. “Campbell is already manner up there in fourth-down makes an attempt. If he needs to juice it and beat any individual 51-45, hats off to him if he can try this, too. It’s simply arduous to try this 2-3 occasions within the playoffs to go all the way in which.”

It can grow to be more durable if the Lions, now 12-2, lose the division to 11-2 Minnesota, which hosts Chicago on Monday night time. The groups play in Week 18 in Detroit. The Athletic’s projection mannequin provides Detroit a 79 p.c shot at successful the division and a 54 p.c shot to assert the NFC’s prime seed.

• Seahawks lose Geno Smith to knee damage: Degree 7.5

The Seahawks entered their 30-13 defeat to Inexperienced Bay on Sunday night time seeking to validate their four-game successful streak on a nationwide stage. As a substitute, they struggled on each side of the ball, fell behind by three scores and misplaced Smith to a knee damage within the third quarter. It was near a worst-case state of affairs.

Seattle now should navigate a troublesome closing schedule — vs. Minnesota in Week 16, on the Los Angeles Rams in Week 18 — with questions at crucial place.

Smith has not loved a stellar statistical season, partly due to his league-high 4 interceptions within the pink zone, together with one in opposition to the Packers. However he has three game-winning drives, has functioned behind a shuffling offensive line and confirmed he might maintain Seattle in video games, together with when the group had 38 first downs in opposition to Detroit in Week 4.

Smith has been higher in Professional Soccer Focus grading (seventh amongst 30 qualifiers coming into Week 15) than on the stat sheet (nineteenth in EPA per play). His backup, Sam Howell, had no significant reps within the offense earlier than stepping in Sunday night time. He struggled in opposition to the Packers after main the league in interceptions with 21 for Washington final season.

• Chargers get dominated on each side of the ball: Degree 6.5

The Chargers ranked No. 1 in defensive EPA per play by way of Week 9. They rank twenty fourth in six video games since, an enormous purpose they’ve slipped from 5-3 to 8-6 in that span.

We’re discovering out the Chargers have improved from final season of their general means to win video games, however they continue to be restricted on each side of the ball. They have an inclination to win by minimizing danger, and when their protection falters, the method does too.

Tampa Bay outgained the Chargers 506-206 in a 40-17 victory at Los Angeles. The Bucs transformed 9 of 15 occasions on third down whereas holding Los Angeles with no single conversion in six possibilities, the fourth time within the Chargers’ final 545 complete video games they’d none, per Professional Soccer Reference.

The Chargers nonetheless would possibly get to 10 wins of their first season beneath Jim Harbaugh, however their probabilities of advancing within the playoffs seem slim.

• Mahomes suffers what Chiefs suppose was a high-ankle sprain: Degree 6

Mahomes has proved he can lead the Chiefs to a Tremendous Bowl victory on a nasty ankle. He did it in opposition to the Philadelphia Eagles after the 2022 season. That doesn’t imply it’s straightforward or probably or that Mahomes can do it once more with this group, which has a greater report however has performed nearer video games with smaller margins for error.

The chart beneath, which printed Thursday as a part of our piece explaining how the Chiefs have received 15 consecutive video games determined by one rating, reveals how a lot worth Mahomes’ scrambling has offered in these video games over the past two seasons coming into Sunday.

The Chiefs’ season-long issues in safety enhance the probabilities Mahomes might take in extra punishment earlier than the playoffs. If anybody can persevere by way of it, Mahomes can. However the odds grew to become somewhat longer Sunday, particularly in a season when the Chiefs’ margin for error is smaller, regardless of their 13-1 report. Wrapping up the No. 1 seed earlier than Week 18 might be moreover vital from a relaxation standpoint.

If Wentz winds up enjoying, it’s price noting coach Andy Reid’s report over time within the common season and playoffs with varied QBs. The desk beneath reveals these data for all quarterbacks with no less than 10 begins beneath Reid.

• Purdy struggles for 49ers on Thursday night time: Degree 5.5

This has been a misplaced 49ers season for causes going effectively past Purdy. The truth is, for a lot of the season, Purdy offered one of many few brilliant spots. He nonetheless ranks seventh in EPA per cross play and fifth in yards per try. However the way in which he struggled in unhealthy climate in opposition to Buffalo and particularly in opposition to the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday night time sounded alarm bells for a few of his supporters within the league.

“The brand new contract for Purdy (within the offseason) was a slam dunk for me till Thursday night time,” an exec from one other group stated. “What I noticed was a man who was so restricted bodily that, I’m not saying I don’t need him, it’s simply the primary time I’ve stated, ‘Hmmm, he can’t make these throws.’”

Maybe it was the climate. Maybe Purdy was injured. Regardless of the case, his efficiency modified the dialog round him for some. The following few weeks will present extra data heading into an enormous offseason for San Francisco. The 49ers might let Purdy play out his contract. They may draft or signal competitors for him. They may re-sign him to any variety of offers. It’s simpler to check extra choices than what appeared like the apparent one for a very long time.

• Steelers lose Watt to ankle damage: Degree 4.5

Information that Watt suffered “solely” a sprained ankle as an alternative of one thing extra critical appeared like a best-case state of affairs on a play that checked out first look to be a type of dreaded non-contact accidents.

The Steelers are 1-11 since 2017 when Watt doesn’t play, together with playoffs. They’ve allowed 26.2 factors per sport on protection in these video games, a couple of landing greater than in any other case. Their protection has averaged +0.08 EPA per play with him on the sphere and -0.02 with out him, per TruMedia. That’s the distinction between rating No. 1 since 2017, because the Steelers do, and rating twenty eighth.

However with Watt having apparently prevented critical damage, the Steelers can look ahead to having him — and No. 1 wideout George Pickens, whose absence damage terribly in opposition to the Eagles — for the playoffs.

That made Steelers coach Mike Tomlin sound credible when he summed up the defeat to the Eagles reasonably casually.

“It’s a loss,” Tomlin stated. “Let’s not get dramatic.”

2. Sam Darnold and the Minnesota Vikings take heart stage Monday night time in what must be one other showcase sport for the NFL’s most shocking quarterback. Right here’s what Darnold has proved down the stretch.

When the Vikings shocked the NFL by beginning 3-0 with Darnold tossing a league-leading eight touchdowns, we famous that the quarterback had tried solely two passes whereas trailing. How would he fare when the Vikings inevitably fell behind over the course of the season?

The reply, to this point: significantly better than previously, and even higher than he has carried out when the Vikings have been tied or main this season. The desk beneath reveals the shocking outcomes.

This marks an enormous change for Darnold.

Earlier than this season, each significant Darnold stat appeared to fall off a cliff when he was compelled to play from behind.

His completion price fell (64.4 p.c to 55.9 p.c). His yards per try fell (7.5 to five.9). His touchdown-to-interception ratio cratered (40-20 to 23-36). His passer ranking (93.2 to 66.0) and EPA per cross play (+0.05 to -0.17) additionally tanked.

Darnold didn’t try his third cross of the season whereas trailing till Week 7, when he accomplished 15 of 18 for 211 yards whereas trailing Detroit in a 31-29 defeat. He has tried passes whereas trailing in each sport since and ranks seventh in EPA per cross play and second in passer ranking when trailing this season. His growth as a passer in much less favorable conditions might have broad implications within the playoffs and past, as Darnold is ready to be a free agent in March.

“I believe Darnold goes to determine into the choices in quite a lot of locations,” an exec stated.

A type of locations might be Minnesota, particularly if Darnold leads a deep playoff push. However injured rookie first-round choose J.J. McCarthy might nonetheless be the chief within the clubhouse for 2025.

“McCarthy is their man,” the exec stated. “The speaking heads suppose they’re loopy to let Darnold go, however they don’t have the identical conviction on McCarthy because the Vikings do.”

3. Competing Bears agendas level to an intriguing December for the one NFC North group out of the playoff working.

Studies surrounding the Chicago Bears’ entrance workplace counsel all will not be effectively inside Halas Corridor.

The Chicago Tribune cited sources in suggesting normal supervisor Ryan Poles employed former coach Matt Eberflus from Indianapolis with out realizing the Colts deliberate to fireplace their then-defensive coordinator. This revelation positioned the blame for Eberflus’ hiring onto Poles. Different tidbits within the story forged Poles unflatteringly.

One other report, from Chicago radio host Marc Silverman, instructed Poles won’t have taken the GM job if he’d recognized the group was going to have him report back to group president Kevin Warren as an alternative of reporting on to possession, as Poles had executed beforehand.

BIG report on Waddle and Silvy in the present day that Ryan Poles is pissed off having to report back to Warren and won’t have taken the job if he knew about this energy dynamic.

Wowza. Retains getting worse at Halas corridor. Not a state of affairs a wanted coach would need to enter. #DaBears pic.twitter.com/WeD3vOsEwU

— Clay Harbor (@clayharbs82) December 10, 2024

This appears like positioning for no matter comes subsequent.

The Bears’ failures beneath Eberflus and struggles to assist quarterback Caleb Williams make Poles susceptible. Pissed off followers would possibly surprise what he has to complain about, given the Bears’ on-field efficiency throughout his tenure. The larger level stands by itself: Chicago’s GM job might be much less engaging now than it was when the GM reported on to possession.

“Warren makes media appearances and makes statements about your group and the way you play and the way upset or excited he’s about you,” a veteran coach stated.

Not many group presidents function as publicly.

It’s shaping as much as be an intriguing December for the Bears although they aren’t a part of the playoff race. Will a troublesome closing stretch in opposition to Minnesota, Detroit, Seattle and Inexperienced Bay draw out extra tales alongside these traces?

4. Defensive scheme won’t be the one space the place Invoice Belichick enjoys a bonus at North Carolina (though there’s some debate over this).

One week in the past, when even Tom Brady was laughing off the concept Belichick would possibly coach at North Carolina, we listed causes a transfer to the school ranks might make sense for the 72-year-old coach.

Now that Belichick has taken the job, the general public might be underrating one space the place he would possibly get pleasure from an enormous edge, past his apparent acumen in scheming on protection.

“They are going to be higher evaluators than 90 p.c of those main faculties will probably be,” a veteran NFL government predicted.

This would possibly run counter to notion as a result of Belichick’s personnel selections, particularly throughout his remaining seasons in New England, contributed to his demise within the position.

The purpose is just that after spending a long time within the NFL, Belichick and his normal supervisor, the previous NFL government Michael Lombardi, will carry to North Carolina a totally developed course of for evaluating gamers and constructing rosters round salaries. That’s vital now that the school participant acquisition mannequin has moved away from coaches’ recruiting pitches towards a extra transactional, pay-for-play strategy.

“They already perceive the cap, they perceive pay and who to pay and construction a roster,” the exec stated. “Schools proper now are scrambling to be taught that and outline that. These faculty coaches have actually been their very own GMs, they usually have employed younger guys to recruit. Belichick goes to be forward.”

This isn’t a consensus view. Others suppose Belichick, by no means an enormous delegator, won’t benefit from the extra nettlesome points of the brand new faculty sport.

“Invoice used to place up an empty depth chart on the primary day of camp, telling the blokes they needed to earn every thing,” one coach stated. “How he’s going to have transfers telling him they need X variety of performs per sport, or this many targets? What’s he going to do when some child within the portal tells him what jersey quantity he needs?”

Brady was appropriate in questioning whether or not Belichick’s to-the-point character would lend itself towards recruiting gamers and, crucially, retaining those already on his roster. It’s going to be fascinating to observe.

• Household historical past: The personnel analysis angle is attention-grabbing on Belichick as a result of his father, Steve, was greater than a longtime faculty coach who spent 1953-55 teaching working backs at North Carolina. A former fullback at Western Reserve and for the Detroit Lions earlier than serving in World Warfare II, the elder Belichick was primarily recognized for the scouting strategies he developed whereas on the Navy employees from 1956 to 1989.

In a free-flowing 1956 interview with the Durham Solar newspaper, Steve Belichick demonstrated his scouting acumen when requested to determine the most effective faculty fullback and quarterback he’d seen that season.

Wake Forest’s Billy Ray Barnes, who went to the Professional Bowl after every of his first three seasons with the Philadelphia Eagles, was Steve Belichick’s prime fullback. Purdue’s Len Dawson, who went on to get pleasure from a Corridor of Fame profession with the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs, was his prime quarterback.

• Extra Belichick fallout: Belichick’s resolution to take the North Carolina job makes him eligible for the Professional Soccer Corridor of Fame in 2026 if he doesn’t return to the NFL by then (the Corridor requires coaches to have left the NFL for no less than one 12 months earlier than they are often thought-about).

Belichick now seems prone to prime the checklist for consideration in 2026. Which means different coaches in line for Corridor consideration, notably Mike Shanahan and Tom Coughlin, may need to attend a 12 months longer than they in any other case would have waited. The 2025 teaching finalist, Mike Holmgren, might acquire approval subsequent month.

• What about Carroll? Belichick, who jumped to school after figuring out his NFL prospects have been dim, wasn’t the one Tremendous Bowl-winning coach in his 70s hoping to get one other shot within the league.

Pete Carroll, who turned 73 in September, has made it clear to associates that he want to coach once more, whether or not on the NFL or faculty ranges.

If Carroll doesn’t return to the NFL subsequent season, he additionally would grow to be eligible for Corridor consideration. Belichick virtually certainly would skate by way of the method in 2026. Shanahan, Coughlin and Carroll might be among the many main candidates after that.

5. The Cleveland Browns now have as many begins with Jameis Winston this season as they’d with Deshaun Watson. Maybe ‘not one of the above’ is the most effective reply at QB.

There’s no denying the Cleveland offense has been extra productive since Winston changed Watson within the lineup following Watson’s season-ending damage. However after one other turnover-filled sport from Winston and the offense in a 21-7 defeat to Kansas Metropolis, the Browns have proved they’ll rank thirty second on offense with both quarterback.

Cleveland was final in EPA per play on offense by way of Week 7. The Browns have been final in EPA per play on offense from Weeks 8 to fifteen.

The desk beneath unveils the splits for every quarterback’s begins.

The Browns’ EPA per play with Watson beginning (-0.225) ranked 786th out of 798 groups since 2000 over the primary seven video games of a season, per TruMedia. Their EPA per play with Winston beginning (-0.120) ranks 690th out of 798 groups over video games 8-14 since 2000.

Watson is reportedly returning subsequent season, however the Browns clearly want different choices. Winston might be one among them, however can Cleveland actually undergo one other season on this manner? It’s troublesome to fathom.

Cleveland owns its personal picks within the first 4 rounds and the sixth spherical subsequent season. The Browns additionally personal a 3rd from Buffalo through the Amari Cooper commerce, a fifth from Detroit and two sixths acquired in different offers. The Browns’ first-rounder can be seventh within the order proper now, per Tankathon.

We’ve got entered the “despair” part of the Jameis Winston market cycle pic.twitter.com/iW76bzw08C

— Jared Smith (@jaredleesmith) December 15, 2024

6. Two-minute drill: MVP wanting like Josh Allen’s to lose

Josh Allen’s chest cross for a landing — punctuated by wanting away and jogging off, arm raised excessive, earlier than the ball was caught — was the type of signature play that may assist cement an MVP season. A holding penalty wiped it out, elevating a query: Does a jury unhear stricken proof?

Even with out that play, Allen over the previous two weeks has 704 yards passing, 5 landing passes, 5 speeding touchdowns and no turnovers. He’s executed it in opposition to the Lions and Rams, two groups within the playoff race.

A holding penalty wipes out a Josh Allen chest cross TD 😅 pic.twitter.com/Sz9RXuc4Tw

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 16, 2024

Allen’s manufacturing over the past two weeks is about the one manner a participant might overshadow what Lamar Jackson pulled off in a less-watched sport in opposition to the New York Giants on Sunday.

Jackson, coming off a bye, completed with no less than as many landing passes (5) as incomplete passes (4) for the third time this season and the seventh time in his profession (together with playoffs), tied with Peyton Manning for essentially the most such video games (min. 15 cross makes an attempt) in a profession. It was his fourth profession sport with extra TD passes than incompletions, tying Manning and Brady for essentially the most ever. Jackson had been tied with Drew Brees for second in each classes.

Jackson’s EPA per cross play (+0.83) was by far the most effective for any participant in Week 15, adopted by Baker Mayfield (+0.61), Allen (+0.54) and Jared Goff (+0.45). Jackson has 4 such video games in his profession, counting playoffs.

The chart beneath updates the offensive EPA for the main MVP candidates. Allen has carved into Jackson’s lead by that measure.

• Eagles tenth straight: The Eagles principally gave their protection the second half off Sunday in what grew to become their tenth consecutive victory following a 2-2 begin. They restricted Pittsburgh to five:50 in time of possession on simply two second-half drives. This was a low time of possession for an Eagles opponent (and for a Steelers offense) in a second half since no less than 2000, per TruMedia. It was the bottom for any group within the second half of any sport since 2022.

Philly’s protection, which ranks fourth in EPA per play after rating thirtieth final season, must be contemporary in opposition to Washington in Week 16, in different phrases. An eleventh consecutive victory would match new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s longest streak since coming into the NFL in 1986. His 1999 Indianapolis Colts received 11 in a row.

• Massive man working: T’Vondre Sweat’s fumble return for the Tennessee Titans, full with spectacular stiff-arm, instantly takes a distinguished place on the checklist of finest returns by enormous defenders. The 366-pound defensive deal with recorded the longest fumble return since no less than 2000 by a defensive participant listed at 350 kilos or heavier, per TruMedia.

RUMBLIN’ BUMBLIN’ STUMBLIN’ #ProBowlVote + @TvondreSweat

📺: Watch #CINvsTEN on @NFLonFOX stream on NFL+ pic.twitter.com/42T3r6gaud

— Tennessee Titans (@Titans) December 15, 2024

Former Detroit Lions defensive deal with Shaun Rogers had a 66-yard choose six off Denver’s Patrick Ramsey in 2007. Rogers additionally had a 21-yard fumble return for a landing in opposition to New Orleans in 2005, spectacular for the way in which he carried defenders throughout the purpose line.

Different fumble returns by defensive linemen within the 350-and-up membership, together with Albert Haynesworth and Terrance Knighton, have been extra typical.

In fact, listed weights aren’t all the time correct. Longtime nostril deal with Keith “Tractor” Traylor, listed at 337 kilos however maybe a sandwich or three above that at occasions, had two interception returns of 60-plus yards, one for a landing with the Broncos in 1998 and this memorable 67-yard return within the Bears’ 2001 season finale, which Dick Enberg and Dan Dierdorf described completely.

• Ravens on fourth down: Baltimore appeared to exit of character when taking a delay penalty to arrange a punt as an alternative of going for it on fourth-and-1 from the Giants’ 49-yard line within the first quarter. This was certainly a primary for Baltimore within the Lamar Jackson period.

The group had gone for it 4 occasions in 4 possibilities when dealing with fourth-and-1 from midfield to the opponent’s 45-yard line with Jackson, changing each time (together with when Jackson gained 14 yards on a run in opposition to Houston within the playoffs final season).

Baltimore did take a delay penalty on fourth-and-1 from the Dallas 44 in Week 3.

• Rodgers’ rebound: The New York Jets beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 32-25 with Aaron Rodgers main two landing drives within the remaining 4:19. It’s been a tricky season for Rodgers and the Jets, however the final seven video games have been higher than the primary seven, no less than on offense.

(Picture of Dan Campbell: Mike Mulholland / Getty Photographs)