NFL Week 16 roundtable: Ought to Chiefs followers fear about Mahomes? Steelers or Ravens for AFC North?

There are three weeks nonetheless to play within the NFL common season, and the Week 16 schedule contains extra key contests — together with two Saturday.

The Kansas Metropolis Chiefs host the Houston Texans within the first sport Saturday, with quarterback Patrick Mahomes on observe to play. Mahomes exited final Sunday’s win over the Cleveland Browns within the fourth quarter with a excessive ankle sprain however was listed as a full participant in practices forward of this week’s assembly with Houston. Kansas Metropolis entered the week nonetheless main the AFC with the NFL’s finest file at 13-1.

The Baltimore Ravens then host the Pittsburgh Steelers in Saturday’s second sport in a pivotal AFC North matchup. Will the Steelers safe the division title and a season sweep of Baltimore with a win, or will the Ravens clinch a postseason journey with a victory?

Our writers Zak Keefer, Jeff Howe and Mike Sando preview Saturday’s video games and extra on this week’s roundtable.

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Patrick Mahomes suffered a proper ankle sprain in Sunday’s win. How involved ought to Chiefs followers be about him making an attempt to play Saturday towards the Texans and once more 4 days later towards the Steelers on Christmas Day? Is there any logical argument to relaxation him on Saturday?

Keefer: He’s carried out this earlier than. Mahomes received a Tremendous Bowl on a gimpy ankle. So he is aware of the method: the rehab, his ache tolerance, the way it impacts him within the pocket. If he can play, Mahomes ought to play. (As a former Colts beat author, I can promise Chiefs followers they don’t need to see what the Carson Wentz experiment seems like.) The actual concern for Chiefs followers proper now, unusual because it sounds, is that this mediocre offense, particularly the offensive line. The deal with spots have buried this unit this season, and I’m unsure they get it proper in time for the playoffs. If not, any shot at a three-peat goes away. The final time Kansas Metropolis didn’t have these spots proper was Tremendous Bowl LV. They misplaced that sport by 22.

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Howe: As a result of Mahomes performed by means of a excessive ankle sprain a few postseasons in the past, I’m not overly involved about his skill to do it once more. The larger concern is the Chiefs haven’t given him a lot room for error in a season that’s been stuffed with white-knuckled thrill rides, with the one fixed being Mahomes’ skill to ship within the clutch. The schedule is working towards them right here, too. If it had been the Steelers on Saturday, it is perhaps a simple choice to take a seat Mahomes to maintain him as far-off as doable from T.J. Watt. I’d play Mahomes, assuming it’s not reckless. In the event that they beat the Texans, I’d truly think about sitting him in Pittsburgh earlier than making an attempt to lock up the No. 1 seed towards the Broncos.

Sando: We have to see how Mahomes features towards the Texans (and what extra harm he incurs) earlier than setting our concern ranges for the subsequent sport. Mahomes was not on the damage report late within the week. He may have returned to the Cleveland sport, if needed. That makes him more healthy than different gamers who will intestine it out in a given week. Greater image, I’m anxious about his skill to carry up by means of the playoffs based mostly on the Chiefs’ skill to guard him and his reliance on scrambling to maintain drives.

Talking of the Steelers, they’ve an vital AFC North sport towards the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday that can influence playoff seeding. Who do you want on this sport and why?

Keefer: I’m going with the Ravens on this one. Frankly, I feel Baltimore is the AFC’s forgotten group at this level. Whereas many of the speak has centered round Mahomes’ ankle, Josh Allen’s MVP-worthy season and the Steelers’ revival with Russell Wilson, the Ravens have been characteristically constant, piling up a 9-5 file that features prime-time wins over the Payments and Chargers. Solely Allen’s otherworldly performances are overshadowing Lamar Jackson’s excellent season — by means of 15 weeks, his passer ranking (120.7) is the second better of any quarterback over the past 25 seasons (Peyton Manning, 123.9 in 2004). The Ravens are additionally second in explosive play proportion over the past 5 weeks. It’s powerful to beat them as soon as — which the Steelers did again in November. Wager on Baltimore successful this one at dwelling.

Howe: I’ll take the Ravens. Whereas the Steelers have been extra constant and received the primary matchup, I nonetheless suppose the Ravens have a better ceiling and will probably be taking part in with extra urgency to attempt to catch their division rivals. However prefer it normally goes with these groups, I’d anticipate it to be shut, and I’d anticipate it to be a troublesome day for Jackson. The Steelers (5-2), Chiefs (4-1) and Raiders (2-1) are the one groups with successful data towards the two-time MVP. Towards all opponents, Jackson’s completion proportion (57.0) ranks second to final towards the Steelers, his yards per sport (153.9) are eighth worst, his passer ranking (66.7) ranks final and his 44.0 dashing yards per sport is his fourth lowest common. He’s by no means rushed for a TD towards them, both.

Sando: I’d take the Steelers if George Pickens had been wholesome and taking part in, however Pittsburgh is perhaps too restricted offensively with out him, so I’ll lean towards the Ravens. The Steelers nonetheless have a good shot based mostly on their strong historical past defending Jackson together with Baltimore’s weaker-than-usual protection/kicking. This sport is perhaps pivotal not solely within the division, but in addition for Jackson’s MVP candidacy.

Falcons rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is ready to make his first NFL begin Sunday towards the Giants. (Ian Maule / Getty Pictures)

The Atlanta Falcons benched Kirk Cousins after 5 straight video games of underwhelming quarterback play, and rookie Michael Penix Jr. will make his beginning debut Sunday towards the New York Giants. Atlanta (7-7) is only one sport behind the Bucs (8-6) within the NFC South race. Is playing on a rookie quarterback to get them to the postseason the proper transfer?

Keefer: That is every kind of dangerous, throwing a rookie into the fireplace with a playoff spot on the road. However I applaud Falcons coach Raheem Morris for making the change as a result of it’s a big gamble this group needed to make. Coaches can’t coach with contracts weighing on their minds. Not even $180 million contracts. They need to put the group first, in any other case the locker room will sniff it out. And Cousins’ play over the past month — one landing, 9 interceptions — has value Atlanta dearly. It’s that straightforward. Penix is perhaps beginning his first NFL sport, however he got here into the league as a really skilled school quarterback. Time to see if he is usually a spark.

Howe: I really like the transfer. The Falcons’ ceiling was severely restricted with Cousins taking part in this manner, playoff race or not. It made sense to present him yet another shot towards the Raiders, who’ve a frisky however gettable protection, and Cousins couldn’t ship a lot in the best way of outcomes. Penix has been lighting it up in observe, so this transfer didn’t come out of nowhere. It comes right down to this: Is it extra helpful to attempt to leapfrog the Bucs for a playoff spot — one thing that’s not within the Falcons’ management — to get right into a wild-card sport the place the Falcons could be underdogs, or to get an prolonged have a look at their first-round choose earlier than figuring out whether or not they need to commerce Cousins within the offseason? I feel the Falcons made the proper choice, and it helps that Penix will play towards three defenses (Giants, Commanders, Panthers) which are susceptible.

Sando: Leaving Cousins within the lineup might need been a much bigger gamble based mostly on how he was taking part in. This Falcons group is just not a championship contender with both quarterback within the lineup. I’d fairly consider Penix and see if he can spark the offense than preserve holding out hope for Cousins when he isn’t the longer term anyway.

The San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins meet Sunday with their playoff hopes all however lifeless and their coaches, Kyle Shanahan and his former offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, beneath scrutiny. How a lot blame do Shanahan and McDaniel deserve, and which group is healthier suited to bounce again in 2025 and past?

Keefer: Shanahan deserves extra of the blame for the 49ers’ backslide, however I don’t suppose it’s all that shocking. This group is outdated, and the prolonged playoff runs of the previous few seasons — 11 postseason video games since 2019, together with two gutting Tremendous Bowl losses — appear to have taken their toll. The accidents and absences have been a difficulty from the beginning of coaching camp. The Dolphins’ season boils right down to Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion early on. The Dolphins tried to climb again from 2-6 and practically did, however the gap they dug was too deep. I feel Miami’s a playoff group in 2025 if Tua stays wholesome.

Howe: The Shanahan dialogue doesn’t make a lot sense to me. If the 49ers made the drastic choice to separate with him, he’d have just a few head teaching affords earlier than the Niners turned off his keycard. They’re injured and quick on depth, and that is what occurs to groups after they’re injured and quick on depth. McDaniel is an efficient coach with a terrific offensive scheme, but it surely’s completely truthful to be vital of him for failing to right the identical points which have plagued them since his arrival. They don’t beat good groups. They don’t play nicely within the chilly. And despite the fact that Tagovailoa places up large numbers most of the time, he’s too inconsistent when his early reads aren’t there and he must improvise. A few of these points are organizational, too. McDaniel ought to get one other shot in 2025. But when they don’t get nearer to successful a playoff sport, it is perhaps value reassessing.

Sando: The Dolphins’ backup quarterback plan and incapacity to perform with out Tagovailoa was essentially the most alarming side of those groups’ seasons. The 49ers are in a greater place to bounce again in 2025, however that may be a considerably tenuous wager just because it’s not clear whether or not Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, Deebo Samuel Sr. and different key 49ers can maintain peak efficiency over a full season.

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Which surging NFC division chief is extra harmful in January: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Los Angeles Rams? And which is extra susceptible on the street in potential Week 16 lure video games towards the Dallas Cowboys and New York Jets, respectively?

Keefer: Tampa Bay, as a result of that offense can rating on anybody. Liam Cohen’s flying beneath the radar a bit as a head teaching candidate this cycle, however the Bucs’ offensive coordinator has been excellent this season and may get some interviews. His unit is averaging 31 factors a sport throughout its present four-game win streak, and since Week 11, Tampa’s offense ranks third in explosive play fee (14.3 p.c). Todd Bowles has his protection buzzing, too: The Bucs’ stress fee is No. 1 within the league over the past 5 weeks. The Cowboys most likely have a greater likelihood on the upset, although, as a result of they’re removed from the dumpster hearth that’s the Jets.

Howe: I feel the Bucs have a better playoff ceiling due to the best way Coen and Baker Mayfield have the offense buzzing, and so they’ve already crushed the Lions and Eagles. The Bucs protection has been susceptible, although, and Mayfield might be streaky with interceptions. The Rams are sizzling and their protection has been higher than earlier within the season. Matthew Stafford is taking part in at a really excessive stage, too. I’d say the Rams have extra of a lure sport as a result of they’ve been susceptible to nail-biters, and Aaron Rodgers is sort of a field of goodies.

Sando: Each groups have proven they will maintain their very own in a shootout when their prime receiving goal is out there. The Buccaneers have carried out a greater job blowing out lesser groups extra persistently, so I’d belief them a bit of extra. But when the Rams attain the playoffs, the Sean McVay/Stafford mixture may threaten within the wild-card spherical as nicely.