We’re onto Week 7 of the NFL season and Sunday brings one other slate loaded with worth within the participant prop markets.
I went 3-0 on my picks on this column final week to get me to 13-2 for the season. Total, I’m 50-36 on participant props this 12 months for +17.92 items of revenue.
All of my picks are tracked within the Motion Community app at Wayne_Bets.
Finest bets: Week 7 NFL participant props
Joe Mixon over 62.5 dashing yards (-120, DraftKings)
Texans vs. Packers, 1 p.m. ET
This line opened at 56.5, an extremely tender quantity, however I nonetheless see worth at its present mark.
Texans offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik desires to function a run-heavy, early down offense, and Houston made Mixon a prized offseason addition to turn into a workhorse. We noticed that position in Week 1, when the working again completed with a whopping 30 carries for 159 yards and a landing.
After an harm in Week 2 saved him on the sidelines, Mixon made his return final week. He solely had 13 carries as he was working his method again to full well being in a recreation that rapidly turned a blowout.
I count on his quantity to ramp up this week towards the Packers. Houston makes use of him the place he’s finest — on inside zone runs from underneath middle. The Bengals hardly ever used him in that position, as their offense operated primarily from shotgun formation.
The Packers are weak on the bottom, rating twenty first in working again line yards allowed and twenty seventh in defensive stuff fee, per FTN Fantasy. Based on Fantasy Factors Information, in addition they enable 4.58 yards per carry to zone runs, the ninth-most within the NFL.
I consider 15 makes an attempt is the ground for Mixon in what must be a tightly contested recreation, and he’s cleared 62.5 dashing yards in 76% of his profession video games with 15-plus makes an attempt, together with an 11-game streak to the over.
Kenneth Walker over 65.5 dashing yards (-120, BetMGM)
Seahawks vs. Falcons, 1 p.m. ET
Walker is coming off two quiet video games on the bottom, however this seems like an amazing bounce-back spot. The Seahawks working again has been glorious this season, main the NFL in missed tackles pressured per try. That units him up for achievement towards the Falcons, who rank twenty fourth in tackling, per Professional Soccer Focus.
The Falcons additionally rank twenty eighth in stuff fee and twenty ninth in dashing success fee allowed, so Walker shouldn’t have any drawback churning out yardage on this recreation. Atlanta has allowed its opponent’s beginning working again to go over this yardage line in each recreation this season.
Walker ought to profit from Seattle’s mini-bye after enjoying on Thursday Night time Soccer final week. He was coping with an indirect harm that brought on him to overlook two video games earlier this 12 months, however he must be totally wholesome and able to tackle a monster workload.
The Seahawks lead the NFL in move fee over expectation. Nonetheless, their teaching workers has repeatedly emphasised getting the dashing assault going, and I count on them to feed Walker on this recreation towards a weak Atlanta run protection.
Diontae Johnson over 68.5 receiving yards (-120, Caesars)
Panthers vs. Commanders, 4:05 p.m. ET
This line jumped from what we wager for Johnson final week, however I’m nonetheless backing him in an ideal spot for manufacturing.
Based on Fantasy Factors Information, since Andy Dalton took over because the beginning quarterback, Johnson has ranked third within the NFL with a monstrous 39.6% first-read goal share.
I’ve repeatedly focused the Commanders’ protection for large receiver props. They rank thirty first in move protection DVOA towards WR1s, in line with FTN Fantasy.
Additionally they run man protection on the seventh-highest fee within the NFL, and Johnson has cooked towards man protection with 2.5 yards per route run, which ranks ninth out of 37 certified receivers.
The Panthers are 7.5-point underdogs in a recreation with a 51.5-point over/underneath, making this the right recreation surroundings for passing manufacturing from the Carolina offense. Count on Johnson to have one other huge recreation on Sunday.
Amon-Ra St. Brown over 73.5 receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)
Lions vs. Vikings, 1 p.m. ET
We’re getting an superior buy-low on St. Brown this week after two quiet video games through which the Lions have been in a position to totally depend on their run recreation. The Vikings have the most effective run protection within the NFL by DVOA, so we must always count on Detroit to function rather more of a balanced offense on Sunday.
The Vikings blitz on the second-highest fee within the NFL and run two excessive safeties on the highest clip to stop giving up the large play. That offers St. Brown loads of room to function over the center of the sphere, and he’s averaging an absurd 2.56 yards per route run towards two-high defenses this season.
Minnesota has allowed Garrett Wilson, Stefon Diggs, Jayden Reed and Deebo Samuel to all end with 90-plus receiving yards this season, and St. Brown must be the following in line.
Betting on the NFL?
He’s cleared this quantity in 14 of his final 20 video games, and indoors on a quick observe with a 50-point over/underneath, count on huge manufacturing from the Lions receiver.
(Remember the fact that traces transfer all through the week, typically drastically, so for those who need assistance on whether or not numbers are nonetheless playable, hit me up on X at @wayne_sports_.)
Why Belief New York Publish Betting
Jacob Wayne handicaps school soccer and the NFL for the New York Publish. He’s up 84.5 items throughout the 2 sports activities with a 6.27% ROI.
