Liz Loza and I had been totally within the Halloween spirit with our props final week, delivering extra treats than methods! We nailed 5 of our six props, with Davante Adams being the lone outlier among the many group.
I’ve now come to study what many lifelong New York Jets followers have recognized since delivery: By no means belief the Jets. I’ve realized my lesson and can be staying away the remainder of the season.
Jets props however, Liz and I are going to do our greatest to re-create our Week 8 heater as we begin on the brink of give thanks for the entire betting goodness on our doorstep right here in Week 9.
So, with out additional ado, let’s dive into Week 9’s props that pop! — Daniel Dopp
All odds as of publication time. For the newest odds, go to ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
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The place does Baker Mayfield stack up in fantasy after a fantastic Week 8?
Liz Loza breaks down the place she would rank Baker Mayfield amongst fantasy quarterbacks in Week 9 vs. the Chiefs.
Baker Mayfield OVER 34.5 move makes an attempt (-120), OVER 224.5 passing yards (-155)
Loza: Opposing offenses are throwing on the Bucs at a cruel charge of 37 move makes an attempt per contest (second most within the NFL). It has been a sound technique, provided that Tampa Bay’s secondary has given up the third-most passing yards within the league (2,191). Consequently, Mayfield has been pressured to air it out and is averaging 35.5 move makes an attempt per recreation (QB2).
There was appreciable consternation that Mayfield’s numbers would dip with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin absent from the lineup in Week 8. Whereas the Bucs in the end fell to the Atlanta Falcons, Mayfield accomplished 37 of fifty move makes an attempt for 330 yards and three scores final Sunday. It was Mayfield’s third straight recreation of 300-plus passing yards.
This go-around he’ll face a Kansas Metropolis Chiefs protection that’s considerably stingier versus the run than it’s in opposition to the move. In truth, regardless of a proclivity towards blitzing, Kansas Metropolis has recorded an underwhelming 15 sacks (tied for the seventh fewest) to date in 2024. As 8.5-point street underdogs, Mayfield and the Bucs must put the ball within the air to remain aggressive. As such, I will take the over on his passing props in prime time.
Operating again props
1:26
Mike Clay: Alvin Kamara belongs at prime of RB rankings vs. Panthers
Daniel Dopp, Discipline Yates and Mike Clay focus on why they’ve Alvin Kamara as RB1 heading for his Week 9 matchup vs. the Panthers.
David Montgomery anytime TD (-115)
Dopp: Let’s replace final week’s prop with just a few new numbers for this Week 9 matchup in opposition to the Inexperienced Bay Packers. First, it seems like there could possibly be some climate on this recreation, and when we have now rain, we normally have a restricted passing assault, which might result in extra alternatives for Knuckles to do what he does greatest. Second, after scoring a TD final week, Monty has now scored in six of seven video games this season and is third amongst RBs with seven speeding touchdowns. He is additionally dominating on the objective line, with 10 rush makes an attempt leading to 5 touchdowns when contained in the 5-yard line this season. His 10 makes an attempt rank fourth behind Derrick Henry (12), Jonathan Taylor (11) and Kyren Williams (11). He’s locked in as one of many premier goal-line backs working behind this sturdy Detroit Lions offensive line.
From a defensive perspective, the Packers have given up six touchdowns to RBs to this point this 12 months, together with one to the aforementioned Williams in Week 5. They have been fairly stiff in opposition to the run to this point, however powerful defenses have not slowed down Detroit one bit, with the Lions scoring 42, 47, 31 and 52 factors of their previous 4 video games, respectively. With that type of offensive firepower, you’ll be able to anticipate Monty to get a minimum of just a few punches on the objective line.
De’Von Achane OVER 88.5 speeding + receiving yards (-118)
Dopp: The splits with and with out Tua Tagovailoa as his beginning quarterback are fairly wild. In 4 video games with out Tua because the starter, Achane has 189 scrimmage yards and 0 TDs. In his three video games with Tua, Achane has 412 scrimmage yards and three TDs. As I stated, fairly wild!
Achane’s effectivity stems from defenses having to respect the passing recreation, with the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle stretching the sphere and holding safeties trustworthy quite than creeping towards the road and stacking the field. In truth, Achane has a minimum of 100 yards from scrimmage and one landing in each recreation that Tua has began to this point this 12 months. We love that, since we’ll have Tua underneath middle once more right here in Week 9.
However that is not the one factor we love, as we’re additionally loving this matchup in opposition to the Buffalo Payments, who’ve allowed the sixth-most yards per rush try to this point this season (4.8) and permitted 4 completely different working backs to hit this mark this 12 months, with three of these backs topping 165 yards from scrimmage. That is not a typo. The Payments have allowed Derrick Henry (209 yards), Breece Corridor (169 yards) and Achane (165 whole yards in Week 2) to dominate them in a number of methods this 12 months. And whereas shut does not depend in sports activities betting, Dare Ogunbowale, Travis Etienne Jr. and James Conner had been all inside 6 yards of this line this season.
None of these backs has the house run means that Achane does to interrupt off an extended one, and that is a part of what we’re hoping for — elite speeding effectivity and passing-game utilization, one thing Achane has had when Tua performs.
Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 49.5 speeding yards (-145), anytime TD (+115)
Loza: When the Patriots handle to remain aggressive, Stevenson can produce, as evidenced by his two-touchdown effort versus the Jets in Week 8. The 26-year-old has been admittedly inefficient, averaging fewer than 3.0 yards per carry in back-to-back video games. Nonetheless, when the sport script leans in his favor, quantity has offset the sins of wasted steps. The Patriots enter the week as 3.5-point street underdogs at Tennessee, suggesting a reasonably shut recreation in opposition to a 1-6 crew that has dropped three in a row.
Moreover, the Titans traded away one of many squad’s most impactful defensive gamers, sending Ernest Jones to Seattle in alternate for Jerome Baker final week. With Jones out of the lineup, Tennessee was steamrolled by Detroit’s speeding assault, giving up 164 speeding yards and practically 7.0 YPC. Assuming Stevenson information 14 totes (he is averaging 14.9 carries and 4.1 YPC on the season), he figures to close 60 speeding yards in an exploitable matchup.
Alvin Kamara OVER 100 speeding + receiving yards and anytime TD (+105)
Dopp: Kamara takes on the Carolina Panthers this week.
I attempted to have that be the top of my evaluation, however my editors assured me that I wanted to be barely extra thorough. I am unsure why, although. If you happen to’ve watched soccer, or listened to soccer, and even thought of soccer within the slightest, you have realized that the Panthers’ protection shouldn’t be excellent. To be trustworthy, it is worse than not excellent.
5 completely different working backs have topped this line, together with Kamara earlier this season. And whereas it does not depend from our perspective, the Panthers additionally gave up 170 scrimmage yards to the combo of Chase Brown and Zack Moss. Why do I point out that? As a result of that is a backfield that is splitting touches, whereas the Saints rely ONLY on Kamara to maneuver the ball. Kamara has 161 touches, with the next-closest RB totaling 36 touches. It is clear that this can be a one-back room, so Kamara ought to be in line to obtain loads of touches, with the added pleasure of getting Derek Carr probably underneath middle once more for the New Orleans Saints.
Alvin ought to rack up the yards in spades and will discover pay dust as effectively, given the Panthers’ lack of ability to cease RBs. To this point this 12 months, Carolina has allowed 15 TDs to the working again place, greater than some other crew within the NFL.
Broad receiver prop
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Is Courtland Sutton value a glance in fantasy?
Liz Loza particulars Courtland Sutton’s upcoming fantasy matchup vs. the Ravens.
Courtland Sutton OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-115)
Loza: It has been an up-and-down season for Sutton. Proper now, nonetheless, he is on an up. Bo Nix’s play has improved, and the matchups have been plus for the veteran wideout. Sutton has logged a minimum of 50 receiving yards in 4 of his previous six video games and is coming off his first 100-yard receiving effort, whereby he transformed a formidable eight of 11 seems.
I would not guess on Sutton posting triple-digit yardage once more this Sunday, however with the Denver Broncos chasing factors at Baltimore (-9.5), it is truthful to anticipate a very good variety of alternatives for Denver’s No. 1 WR. Sutton ought to convert on these photographs as effectively, provided that the Ravens are permitting a 67.2% completion proportion. Moreover, Baltimore’s secondary has given up probably the most receiving yards within the league, a whopping 2,493 (a median of 311 per recreation).
