How a lot may have modified in a month?
Ask the Edmonton Oilers. When The Athletic polled its NHL workers for 2024-25 predictions within the preseason, Connor McDavid was the prohibitive favourite for the Hart Trophy, and his staff was the front-runner to win the Stanley Cup.
Now? Effectively, the Oilers are the highest choose in one other class, but it surely’s not a great one. A brand new staff takes the highest spot for who we predict will win all of it, and one other Western Convention celebrity — who didn’t get any votes within the preseason — is our Hart Trophy choose.
What else has modified? This week, we polled staffers on the identical set of questions we requested within the preseason. Right here’s how our expectations for 2024-25 have already developed, with skilled evaluation and critique from senior writers James Mirtle and Sean Gentille, analytics know-it-all Shayna Goldman and NHL betting skilled Jesse Granger.
Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Goldman: The Stars are the quietly efficient, balanced staff of all of our goals. It’s no shock to see them on the high right here — particularly after the Oilers have gotten off to a different iffy begin. It’s not as dramatic or dire as final yr, however they aren’t inspiring a ton of confidence but.
Granger: I personally selected the Rangers, but it surely’s arduous to argue with any of the highest three picks right here. The Stars are as full of a staff as there may be within the league proper now, and the Rangers and Panthers appear to be they’re in their very own tier within the East, at the least early.
Gentille: I not often bail on my preseason Cup picks interval, not to mention after a month, however I’m involved sufficient with Stuart Skinner to deviate from protocol. Hi there, Dallas.
Mirtle: I’ve firm with the ‘Canes now! A ten-2-0 begin, offensive explosion (greater than 4 objectives per sport) and Martin Nečas arriving actually assist embiggen their case.
THIS MAN CAN’T BE STOPPED!!! pic.twitter.com/EZW21YE58t
— Carolina Hurricanes (@Canes) November 6, 2024
Who would be the runners-up?
Goldman: Apparently it’s win or bust for the Hurricanes and Panthers! I went with the Lightning right here, who look quite a bit stronger than the final couple of seasons. With a pair of seconds and fourths within the 2025 draft, administration ought to have the ability to deal with their depth — so long as they don’t spend all their picks on a participant like, I don’t know, Tanner Jeannot.
Granger: It’s attention-grabbing to see how little the religion in Edmonton has wavered after the 6-7-1 begin, each on this ballot and within the betting odds. The Oilers are nonetheless the favorites to win the Cup at +700 regardless of at the moment sitting in fifth place within the Pacific Division standings with the third-fewest objectives scored per 60 minutes.
Gentille: Yeah, I’m sticking with the Rangers right here. They’ve received an elite goaltender in Igor Shesterkin, a Hart candidate in Artemi Panarin and sufficient five-on-five substance to maintain me on the practice.
Mirtle: Nobody be-Leafs anymore, after a tepid eight wins in 15 video games begin. (I don’t blame them.) I went with the Jets right here, as with Connor Hellebuyck this dialed in, they might have a pleasant run.
The Sharks had the worst report within the league final season. This yr, issues are simply as bleak. (Michael Reaves / Getty Pictures)
Who will end in final place?
Goldman: The Sharks, even with out Macklin Celebrini, have had some attention-grabbing video games recently … however everyone knows the place their season goes. The massive distinction between them and the Geese? Lukáš Dostál.
Granger: I assumed the Sharks can be considerably higher this season, and up to now that’s confirmed to be very flawed. They clearly don’t have the expertise to compete with one of the best groups, however additionally they sit again so passively on protection, letting groups move the puck across the exterior nearly as in the event that they’re on an influence play for almost all of the sport.
Gentille: San Jose must name up Yaroslav Askarov (.950 save proportion in his first six AHL video games) to make this one attention-grabbing.
Mirtle: The Habs would possibly make this one attention-grabbing in the event that they hold enjoying this manner defensively. Two wins of their final 11 video games doesn’t appear to be a blip.
Who would be the greatest disappointment?
Should be projected at 100-plus factors by Dom Luszczyszyn’s mannequin at the beginning of the season. Projected level complete in parentheses.
Granger: The highest three groups are all on this spot because of subpar goaltending. The distinction between the three is that Alexandar Georgiev and Skinner have lengthy sufficient monitor information for me to imagine they’ll finally regress again to being league-average goalies. In the meantime, it’s trying much less doubtless Thatcher Demko is stepping by means of that door to save lots of the Canucks, so I’m most fearful about Vancouver.
Mirtle: No love for Kevin Lankinen! He’s been wonderful, and the Canucks’ underlying numbers are strong. Their backup is hurting them (.797 save proportion for Artūrs Šilovs), however with Demko becoming a member of the principle group at apply this week, they might be high-quality?
Granger: You is likely to be proper. Possibly I’m not giving Lankinen sufficient credit score. He was wonderful in opposition to the Kings on Thursday, and his numbers are nice. I’m nonetheless a bit skeptical that can proceed for a complete season, but when Demko returns quickly it’ll change my thoughts in a rush.
Gentille: Carolina is at the moment enjoying at a 137-point tempo. Whoops!
Goldman: The Oilers bounced again from worse final yr, so perhaps that’s why I’m not tremendous fearful there. Possibly the Maple Leafs ought to be increased. Or all of us anticipate them to disappoint us, so it wouldn’t be a shock if it occurred.
Who’s your darkish horse Cup contender?
Should be projected as a middle-of-the-pack staff, between 85 and 100 factors by Dom’s mannequin at the beginning of the season. Projected level complete in parentheses.
Goldman: The Wild and Capitals have gotten off to better-than-expected begins, which makes them dark-horse playoff groups. However contenders? I don’t assume anybody sees them standing within the remaining 4 within the spring. That’s what separates them from the Jets, Devils, Lightning and Golden Knights.
Granger: I’m nonetheless alone on the Senators bandwagon, however I’m nonetheless snug regardless of the middling begin. Ottawa is scoring at a great tempo, and the goaltending has been higher than the numbers counsel. They’re inferior to Tampa Bay or Vegas, however I discover it arduous to think about them darkish horses.
Gentille: The Lightning are a little bit of a riser right here, which is sensible. They’re getting secondary manufacturing from their forwards, and that was an enormous subject for them final season.
Mirtle: Sticking with Vegas. They’re using a capturing proportion bender, positive, however offense positive doesn’t appear to be it’ll be the difficulty some thought it was this season. Pavel Dorofeyev has arrived.
Pav received us going!!! 🚪 pic.twitter.com/G1kdbFZagh
— Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) November 3, 2024
Who’s your shock playoff staff?
Should be projected beneath 85 factors by Dom’s mannequin at the beginning of the season. Projected level complete in parentheses.
Granger: The Flames are enjoying some enjoyable, high-event hockey, and each Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar are off to good begins in web. Greater than something, I simply assume the Pacific Division is the best to earn a playoff spot in.
Gentille: Ideally, we may’ve left this one clean, however I can see the Blues making a run as soon as Robert Thomas is again within the lineup.
Mirtle: Yeah, this actually seems like not one of the above at this level. Good for Columbus, although; lastly seems like they’re constructing one thing attention-grabbing there. They’ve been enjoyable to look at.
Goldman: The door ought to be open for Detroit right here with the Islanders, Penguins and Bruins all going by means of it, however … nope, the vibes are merely off there as effectively.
Will Derek Lalonde be the primary coach fired this season? (Michael Reaves / Getty Pictures)
Who would be the first coach fired?
| Coach | Preseason | Now |
|---|---|---|
|
21.4% |
35.5% |
|
|
7.1% |
29.0% |
|
|
21.4% |
19.4% |
|
|
0.0% |
9.7% |
|
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
|
10.7% |
0.0% |
|
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
Goldman: There’s a good case to make for any of the highest three names right here. Mike Sullivan can be purely for a change of route. A staff with Derek Lalonde on the helm shouldn’t be this dangerous defensively. However I personally went with Jim Montgomery. The Bruins look misplaced within the early goings of the season and are seeing their playoff probabilities development down by the day at this level.
Gentille: Gotta say, I didn’t anticipate to see Montgomery difficult for the crown right here. I nonetheless assume it’s Lalonde, although. If Detroit’s energy play goes chilly for a protracted period of time, issues are gonna get ugly in a rush.
Mirtle: I second Montgomery. It’s not a lot Boston’s report, which isn’t nice. They’ve been as dangerous defensively as we’ve seen in … 20 years? And even David Pastrňák seems to be out of types now.
East playoff discipline
We requested every voter to select the eight East playoff groups. Right here is the proportion of the votes acquired by every staff.
(*-playoff staff in 2023-24)
Granger: There appears to be a reasonably clear cutoff after the highest eight groups, each in these ballot outcomes and the betting odds. Boston remains to be a -135 favourite to make the playoffs regardless of the sluggish begin, whereas the next-closest staff (Ottawa) is a slight +110 underdog to make it.
Gentille: Eight-for-eight to this point. Finish the season instantly.
Mirtle: One vote for Ottawa for me. They’ve appeared actually good recently and managed to nab some factors when Linus Ullmark was out of the lineup. Possibly ease up on these Travis Hamonic minutes a bit, although, Mendes.
Goldman: The East feels considerably determined apart from that eighth seed. Boring!
West playoff discipline
We requested every voter to select the eight West playoff groups. Right here is the proportion of the votes acquired by every staff.
(*-playoff staff in 2023-24)
Granger: What a fall for Nashville, from 92.9 % to 32.3 % in solely a month of hockey. The Predators are nonetheless favorites to make the playoffs in line with the oddsmakers, although.
Gentille: I really like what the Kings are doing. They’re a top-10 five-on-five staff, and that bodes effectively for them snagging one of many wild playing cards, particularly given how misplaced Nashville has appeared.
Mirtle: The rise of the Wild may make the West race fairly boring. I’ve a tough time seeing any of the underside seven get in at this level. Show me flawed, Utahns!
Goldman: Time to cancel one other journey to Sphere or one thing to get Nashville again on this race. Utah had lots of momentum early on and wow, did it fade rapidly.
Hart Trophy
Given to the participant judged to be probably the most priceless to his staff. Voted on by the Skilled Hockey Writers Affiliation (PHWA).
Gentille: It’s price noting that we voted whereas Connor McDavid was on the shelf, and he wound up lacking a grand complete of three video games. At 6.5 %, he got here in somewhat gentle.
Mirtle: Kirill Kaprizov is a high-quality alternative, however I feel we’re chasing the shiny new toy right here a bit. Nikita Kucherov and Nathan MacKinnon have been wonderful recently and are going to make this one attention-grabbing, I feel.
Goldman: No disagreements with Kaprizov and Kucherov main the best way, however goalies (and Shesterkin, particularly) ought to be within the dialog extra typically.
Get your self a glass 🥛 pic.twitter.com/W0QrBuHni4
— Minnesota Wild (@mnwild) November 9, 2024
Rocket Richard Trophy
Given to the main purpose scorer on the finish of the common season.
Goldman: Who amongst us anticipated Kucherov to attain this a lot with a 40-goal scorer like Jake Guentzel on his wing?
Gentille: “Me,” I say very dishonestly. He didn’t get any votes, however I really feel it essential to level out that Tage Thompson leads the league with 9 five-on-five objectives. If Buffalo’s energy play will get it collectively, he ought to have a shot.
Mirtle: The Auston Matthews skepticism additionally comes with him on the shelf for just a few video games, however the concern is warranted. His capturing proportion is down by half, the Leafs energy play had a tough begin however is getting higher, and it feels a bit just like the off-year he had in 2022-23 up to now.
Norris Trophy
Given to the defenseman who demonstrates all through the season the best all-around capability within the place. Voted on by the PHWA.
Granger: Cale Makar is scoring at an 82-game tempo of 135 factors …
Gentille: Makar has been undeniably sick, however I went with Quinn Hughes right here if solely to make some extent. His work in his personal finish has been each unimaginable and a step up from final season, when he gained Norris No. 1. His marketing campaign for a repeat deserves to begin now.
Mirtle: I picked Makar, however glad to see Brock Faber right here. If the Wild make the playoffs, he’s going to be getting votes for this, no query.
Goldman: Hughes is having such a superb begin that he most likely ought to be getting extra hype. No shade to Makar, who rightfully leads the best way right here. It simply feels prefer it ought to be a bit tighter.
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16 stats: Sabres’ second-line points, Timothy Liljegren commerce, Quinn Hughes’ Norris case
Selke Trophy
Given to the ahead who demonstrates probably the most talent within the defensive part of the sport. Voted on by the PHWA.
Goldman: Aleksander Barkov is the straightforward reply right here and can most likely be a perennial finalist for the remainder of his profession. However Nico Hischier’s scoring may lastly push him to the highest of the checklist this yr, since there may be a lot extra emphasis on two-way play in at present’s sport.
Gentille: That was my logic, too. Barkov missed a while and Hischier is scoring sufficient (10 objectives) to bolster his case.
Mirtle: The twelfth (Sidney Crosby) and thirteenth (Anze Kopitar) oldest skaters are getting status votes right here, but it surely’s fairly outstanding that each are nonetheless placing up higher than some extent a sport at age 37.
Rangers goalie Igor Shesterkin is enjoying on his personal planet and maybe his personal universe. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Pictures)
Vezina Trophy
Given to the goalkeeper adjudged to be one of the best at this place. Voted on by the final managers of all 32 NHL golf equipment.
Granger: Shesterkin is enjoying on his personal planet — maybe his personal universe — in the mean time. The 11.97 objectives he’s saved above anticipated this season (even after a uncommon dangerous outing on Thursday) rank second within the league. It’s nearly unfair when he’s this locked in.
Gentille: I’m Workforce Shesterkin, too, however shoutout to Jake Oettinger, who’s having the kind of common season (.922 save proportion, fifth within the NHL in objectives saved above anticipated) that loads of us anticipated in 2023-24.
Mirtle: Fairly a negotiation technique from Shesterkin proper now …
GO DEEPER
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Jack Adams Award
Given to the coach adjudged to have contributed probably the most to his staff’s success. Voted on by the NHL Broadcasters’ Affiliation.
| Coach | Preseason | Now |
|---|---|---|
|
0.0% |
29.0% |
|
|
42.9% |
22.6% |
|
|
0.0% |
12.9% |
|
|
0.0% |
9.7% |
|
|
3.6% |
6.5% |
|
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
|
3.6% |
3.2% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
|
0.0% |
3.2% |
|
|
10.7% |
0.0% |
|
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
7.1% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
|
|
3.6% |
0.0% |
Goldman: We noticed Spencer Carbery do quite a bit with somewhat final season. With some roster additions, the Capitals are thriving. He deserves lots of credit score for it. If Washington can keep within the playoff race, he feels just like the slam-dunk choose for this award.
Gentille: I’d like to see Carbery keep within the dialogue right here. Too many Jack Adams candidates are propped up by overachieving goalies, and that hasn’t been the case in D.C. They’re across-the-board good.
Mirtle: Carbery was pegged by lots of organizations as a rising star after what he did as an assistant in Toronto, and that’s undoubtedly enjoying out proper now. Few noticed this type of an increase from the Capitals, who immediately look very legit. Nice rent by Brian MacLellan.
Granger: The Senators aren’t fairly enjoying effectively sufficient for Travis Inexperienced to fly up this checklist, however I like what he’s doing with that younger staff.
Calder Trophy
Given to the participant chosen as probably the most proficient in his first yr of competitors within the NHL. Voted on by the PHWA.
Gentille: As I kind this, Matvei Michkov has been healthy-scratched. It was sure to occur sooner or later, I suppose.
Goldman: The Sharks scored greater than anticipated with out Macklin Celebrini, so if they will construct on it with him again within the fold (he scored two objectives on Thursday), he may emerge as the favourite.
MACKLIN’S GOT ANOTHER ONE ✌️ pic.twitter.com/zX4UW1hZlq
— NHL (@NHL) November 8, 2024
Mirtle: I’m closely biased right here as a result of I’ve watched him with my hometown staff for years, however people are sleeping on Logan Stankoven. His line has been nice defensively, and his point-per-game tempo isn’t percentage-driven. He’s going to have an amazing profession.
Granger: Stankoven was so good within the playoffs final yr and has rolled it proper into this season. The man is in every single place when he’s on the ice, an amazing forechecker and has loads of talent with the puck as soon as he will get it.
(Illustration: Meech Robinson / The Athletic. Images: Bruce Kluckhohn, Andre Ringuette / NHLI; Joel Auerbach / Getty Pictures)
