The oil market hasn’t spent a lot time underneath $70 within the post-pandemic interval however after 5 days of heavy promoting, it is now at $67.29, which is the bottom since June of 2023.
Final yr we noticed a number of dips down into this vary that have been all purchased, together with two intraday falls under $65. The low shut final yr was $66.74 on March 17 because the market grappled with the potential for a US regional banking disaster. It then shortly recovered to $83.44 partly on account of pledges from OPEC to curb manufacturing.
This time, OPEC+ might have already performed its card with widespread stories a couple of two-month delay in plans to return oil to the market. The issue is, the market nonetheless sees a surplus in H1 2025 and that might actually be worsened by sluggish economies within the US, China and elsewhere.
There hasn’t been a commerce under $60 since April 2021 when covid was nonetheless badly restraining demand.
The primary threat now could be that OPEC cracks. To this point there was nice cohesion however the UAE would love carry on oil and in some unspecified time in the future it’s important to surprise if there’s a restrict to OPEC’s endurance.