Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s SitRep, the place we’re taking a sip of espresso each time we write the phrase “escalating tensions.”
Because you final heard from us, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon; Israel launched a “restricted” incursion into the nation’s south; Iran fired a volley of some 200 missiles at Israel; and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed an essay touting the Biden administration’s diplomatic achievements.
Welcome again to Overseas Coverage’s SitRep, the place we’re taking a sip of espresso each time we write the phrase “escalating tensions.”
Because you final heard from us, Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli airstrike in Lebanon; Israel launched a “restricted” incursion into the nation’s south; Iran fired a volley of some 200 missiles at Israel; and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken revealed an essay touting the Biden administration’s diplomatic achievements.
Alright, right here’s what’s on faucet for the day: A roundup of our greatest reads on the Center East, the strategic stronghold of Vuhledar in japanese Ukraine falls to Russia, and Australia and New Zealand commerce army commanders.
What to Learn on the Center East Disaster
As we get better from our week on the U.N. Common Meeting and work to maintain atop the deluge of reports from the Center East, we’re taking a break from our often scheduled programming for the subsequent two weeks.
However Overseas Coverage nonetheless has you lined. Right here’s a roundup of our prime reads from the information workforce and our skilled contributors on varied facets of the disaster within the Center East and the place issues may go subsequent.
The U.N. Decision on the Coronary heart of the Israel-Lebanon Battle
Our colleague Keith Johnson explains why U.N. Safety Council Decision 1701, which put an finish to the 2006 warfare between Hezbollah and Israel, did not oust the group from Lebanon’s south and set the stage for the present battle. “The unhappy saga and unsure way forward for Decision 1701 act as a mirror to almost every thing that has occurred between Israel and Lebanon within the 18 years because it was handed,” he writes.
What Israel Discovered From the 2006 Lebanon Battle
Israel’s 34-day warfare towards Hezbollah in 2006 resulted in an uneasy stalemate. It was deemed a humiliation for the nation’s authorities and prompted an extended interval of soul-searching within the Israeli army and intelligence institution. Israel’s newest marketing campaign towards Hezbollah, which has quickly degraded the group’s communications infrastructure, senior management, and army capabilities, displays a few of the hard-learned classes from 2006, my colleague Christina Lu and I clarify.
Don’t Blame Biden for the Yearlong Battle in Gaza
America has confronted vital ire each at residence and overseas for failing to curb the brutal nature of Israel’s army marketing campaign towards Hamas in Gaza, which has killed greater than 40,000 individuals over the course of the previous 12 months. Aaron David Miller and Lauren Morganbesser of the Carnegie Endowment for Worldwide Peace argue that though the administration has leverage over Israel—and none over Hamas—there’s cause to consider the appliance of U.S. stress would have had restricted impact. This “area is most of the time a spot the place American concepts go to wither or die,” they write.
Additionally, as Israel and the world mark the primary anniversary of the bloody Hamas-led assault on Oct. 7, 2023, that ignited the area, tune into FP Reside on Monday for a dialog between our editor in chief Ravi Agrawal and Aaron David Miller on the world after Oct. 7.
Israeli Airstrikes Gasoline Anger, Desperation in Southern Lebanon
Israeli airstrikes on Lebanon in latest weeks have killed greater than 1,000 individuals in a few of the most punishing bombardments in trendy warfare. Longtime FP contributor Stefanie Glinski stories from Ain Ed Delb in southern Lebanon. “The village has largely emptied of individuals—apart from these nonetheless digging up the useless,” she writes.
Israel’s ‘Mission Achieved’ Second within the Center East
Israeli officers are using excessive within the wake of the devastating blow dealt to Hezbollah in latest weeks—harking back to former U.S. President George W. Bush’s fateful declaration that the US’ mission had been achieved six weeks after it invaded Iraq in 2003, FP columnist Stephen M. Walt writes. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu could also be making the identical mistake Bush made, Walt warns.
Can Israel Kill Its Approach to Victory Over Hezbollah?
Israel’s widening marketing campaign towards Hezbollah represents a shift in its method to the militant group, looking for to again it right into a nook within the hope of suing for peace. Will it work? “Hezbollah could also be too weak to battle again and so bruised it makes concessions,” writes Daniel Byman, a terrorism skilled and professor at Georgetown College’s Faculty of Overseas Service. “However the group up to now has proven its resilience, and it could choose to hit again tougher quite than again down.”
Let’s Get Personnel
Jennifer Gavito, President Joe Biden’s nominee to function U.S. ambassador to Libya, introduced this week that she has requested the president to withdraw her nomination, two and a half years after she was first approached concerning the function. Gavito cited the damaged affirmation course of, which has left the US with out an envoy to the troubled nation for 2 years. “U.S. nationwide safety deserves higher than this,” she wrote in a put up on LinkedIn.
Former Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte formally took the reins as NATO secretary-general on Tuesday, taking on from Jens Stoltenberg, who held the function for a decade. For the lowdown on NATO’s new workaholic boss, take a look at Caroline de Gruyter’s revealing profile of Rutte for Overseas Coverage.
Following Nasrallah’s dying on Friday, the group’s deputy chief, Naim Qassem, is at present serving because the appearing head of the group. Nasrallah’s cousin Hashem Safieddine is broadly anticipated to be tapped to function the subsequent chief.
On the Button
What must be excessive in your radar, if it isn’t already.
Vuhledar falls. The japanese Ukrainian city of Vuhledar was seized by Russian forces on Wednesday after Ukrainian troops withdrew from the essential chokepoint to keep away from encirclement. The small city sits between the principle entrance traces in japanese and southern Ukraine, and its place atop excessive floor provides it strategic significance past its prewar dimension. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty explains what this would possibly imply for Ukraine’s beleaguered army.
Two weeks? The primary query in Tuesday night time’s debate between the U.S. vice presidential candidates famous that Iran has “drastically lowered the time it will take to develop a nuclear weapon,” noting that it’s now right down to “one or two weeks.” Whereas Iran has unquestionably accelerated its nuclear program, the query conflated the period of time it will take Tehran to develop a bomb’s value of enriched uranium with the sophisticated means of inserting that into an precise weapon, a course of that would take months if not a 12 months, the New York Occasions explains.
Drones aplenty. Ukraine is now able to producing as many as 4 million drones yearly, President Volodymyr Zelensky advised a gathering of executives from international arms producers in Kyiv on Tuesday. The nation already has contracts to provide 1.5 million drones this 12 months, Zelensky mentioned, because it goals to ramp up home manufacturing amid the continuing warfare with Russia.
Commander swap. Australia and New Zealand have exchanged deputy commanders of their respective joint forces headquarters, liable for the management, planning, and conduct of their respective militaries. The commerce is testomony to how the 2 Pacific nations see their safety as intently interlinked, Protection Information stories.