Eli Lilly’s disappointing quarterly earnings outcomes for its blockbuster weight reduction and diabetes medicine Mounjaro and Zepbound revealed that the market has some vulnerabilities. And with a projected market doubtlessly value billions extra, the outcomes aren’t more likely to deter different pharmas from pursuing their very own entries.
Pfizer executives are nonetheless bullish on the chance for its personal weight problems and diabetes medicine below growth, eyeing a possible opening for oral variations and an improved security profile in comparison with the GLP-1 medicine at present available on the market. Whereas Pfizer isn’t the one pharma big betting on oral GLP-1s, the corporate is all in with a couple of candidate within the works.
And regardless of two clear leaders within the area — Novo Nordisk and Lilly — provide shortages and different rising pains go away room for brand new medicine within the coming years.
“If there’s a section value watching, it’s the oral GLP-1s,” mentioned Puru Gaur, a senior industrial analyst with Norstella. “With a present [market] worth simply shy of $4 billion, the oral GLP-1 [market] might attain the $20 billion milestone by 2030, representing a high-stakes battleground for pharmaceutical giants.”
“Firms are desperate to pour assets into creating higher security profiles, understanding {that a} differentiated product could possibly be their ticket to sustained market success.”
Puru Gaur
Senior industrial analyst, Norstella
The one oral GLP-1 permitted by the FDA to this point is Novo’s Rybelsus, which treats sort 2 diabetes and introduced in roughly $1.6 billion in gross sales in the course of the first half of 2024. Oral variations of the favored injectable GLP-1s are considered extra handy for sufferers who could not need to use needles.
“This hole presents a profitable alternative, and the race is on to see which participant can capitalize on it first,” Gaur mentioned.
Pfizer’s sport plan
Lilly’s oral model, orforglipron, is in part 3 trials for weight reduction. However Pfizer is aiming to be the second pharma firm available on the market with an permitted oral GLP-1 for that indication, with its lead candidate, danuglipron, nonetheless in early-stage testing. Second place might nonetheless supply a large market share.
“There’s a important want for oral options,” Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla mentioned in the course of the firm’s third-quarter earnings name. “There is no such thing as a doubt that if profitable, we may have a good market share of oral.”
Along with danuglipron, Pfizer is creating an oral, small molecule GIPR-antagonist that’s starting part 2 testing this yr, and one other oral GLP-1 in part 1, Bourla mentioned in the course of the name. The corporate’s oral candidates edge towards the higher finish of the ten% to twenty% weight reduction seen with GLP-1s in use right this moment, and Pfizer plans to debate extra about danuglipron, which is at present present process dosing trials, in 2025, executives mentioned.
Market differentiation
Having a number of medicine below growth diversifies Pfizer’s technique to rival different meds. Nonetheless, the oral GLP-1s’ benefit over injectables could also be restricted on their very own. Whereas the oral variations of the GLP-1s could have related outcomes for weight reduction, differentiations — corresponding to combos that embrace Lilly’s tirzepatide merchandise Wegovy and Zepbound, that are twin GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonists — might assist new medicine stand out within the creating market. Pfizer is pursuing a GIPR antagonist, which can present additional benefits.
“I do not anticipate that the assorted oral [versions] will, in the long run, differ that a lot within the GLP-1 class,” Dr. Mikael Dolsten, chief scientific officer and president Pfizer R&D, defined in the course of the earnings name. “In order that’s why we had been eager additionally to maneuver [to] a GIPR, which might add higher tolerability and extra efficacy.”
New indications exterior weight administration and sort 2 diabetes might propel these medicine into new territory, Gaur mentioned.
“What’s intriguing is that future development in GLP-1 for weight problems is probably not outlined by a one-size-fits-all method,” Gaur mentioned. “As an alternative, it’s more likely to be pushed by refined affected person segmentation, achieved by way of artistic product differentiation, mixture therapies and particular focusing on. Firms are desperate to pour assets into creating higher security profiles, understanding {that a} differentiated product could possibly be their ticket to sustained market success.”
