Predicting the School Soccer Playoff rankings after Week 11: What to do with Indiana?

Two top-five groups misplaced simply days after the primary School Soccer Playoff rankings of the 2024 season had been launched, so there ought to be a Prime 25 shake-up by the choice committee with the second rankings on Tuesday night time. Simply how a lot they alter after Georgia and Miami misplaced is the query.

My School Soccer Playoff projections mannequin predicts what the committee is more likely to do with its rankings every week. Final week, my projected rankings had 24 of the highest 25 groups (the one non-ranked group was Missouri, which I had twenty sixth), so it did a reasonably good job of figuring out the Prime 25. What about precision? The mannequin predicted the entire prime 17 groups’ rankings inside two spots. The primary massive miss got here when it projected Clemson and Military at 18th and nineteenth, respectively, whereas the committee had them at twenty third and twenty fifth. General, 22 of the 25 groups had been inside two spots, 16 had been inside one spot and 9 had been precisely proper, together with seven of the highest 12.

This can be a new week and a brand new take a look at, as groups are going to be shifting round a bunch on the prime. So let’s take one other stab at projecting what the committee will do with the rankings.

Subsequent 5: Arizona State, Pitt, Tulane, UNLV, Illinois

Largest query: How is Indiana being evaluated?

Indiana is contemporary off a victory over Michigan, simply one in all its greatest wins of the season but in addition its closest. For the primary time in 10 video games, the Hoosiers received by single digits, hanging on to win 20-15 regardless of having simply 18 yards of whole offense within the second half. Indiana has already crashed the AP prime 5 for the primary time since 1967. It’s 10-0 for the primary time ever and shall be within the combine for a top-five rating Tuesday after it was eighth in final week’s CFP rankings. The explanation it’s not a surefire top-five group is as a result of its power of schedule, in my projections, ranks 81st. How a lot will that matter?

GO DEEPER

Why No. 8 Indiana is the 12-team School Soccer Playoff’s final take a look at case

The Hoosiers’ Playoff positioning will in the end be decided by how they carry out in opposition to Ohio State in Columbus on Nov. 23 after they’re idle this week. If that’s a aggressive recreation, you possibly can nearly assure the Hoosiers a spot within the CFP. But when it’s a blowout, some suppose they don’t have the resume to deserve or assure an at-large bid. And whereas I received’t defend their schedule power, I don’t suppose sufficient consideration is delivered to another CFP contenders.

In response to my projections, Texas has performed the eightieth hardest schedule and Tennessee the seventieth. Now, there are some variations throughout power of schedule metrics from numerous sources, however Tennessee’s greatest win is Alabama and its second greatest win is arguably Kentucky (and it misplaced to Arkansas). Texas’ greatest win might be Vanderbilt or Michigan.

Indiana will probably end the season with the simplest schedule among the many contenders, however I don’t suppose it’s as egregious as some have been making it out to be. efficiency in opposition to Ohio State ought to give the Hoosiers not solely a Playoff bid, however a chance to host a recreation within the first spherical.

GO DEEPER

Indiana edges Michigan to achieve 10 wins, probably Playoff and desires extra: What is that this world?

What the 12-team bracket would appear to be

The bracket beneath is predicated on the projected choice committee rankings for Nov. 11. Discover my projections for the ultimate bracket right here.

(Photograph of Curt Cignetti: Justin Casterline / Getty Pictures)