Prime statistician David Spiegelhalter on how you can cope with uncertainty

The Artwork of Uncertainty
David Spiegelhalter (Pelican (UK, out now); W. W. Norton (US, 4 March 2025))

I’m not a twin, however I share a birthday with my sister, who’s three years older than me. After I inform individuals, I usually get certainly one of two reactions: both a lewd joke about how 9 months earlier should have been a particular date for our dad and mom, or a “what are the probabilities?”

In my ignorance, I’ve all the time assumed it was merely…