QB future for all 32 NFL groups: Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers and different intriguing questions

Russell Wilson taking part in for a brand new contract with the Pittsburgh Steelers ranks among the many high quarterback storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season’s closing weeks. There are lots of others of curiosity, which makes this an excellent time to test in on all 32 quarterback conditions.

As I normally do that time of yr, I’ve grouped all 32 quarterbacks into buckets based mostly on how their groups ought to really feel about them, from “Dedicated With out Reservation” at one finish to “We’re Wanting For A Means Out” on the different.

The New York Giants’ present starter (Drew Lock) shouldn’t be listed, however their former one (Daniel Jones) does seem. I’ve included contract length and wage rank, together with the place every ranks in EPA per cross play among the many 40 quarterbacks with no less than 100 cross makes an attempt this season.

1. Dedicated With out Reservation

Now we have top-five QBs of their primes, signed to long-term contracts.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas Metropolis Chiefs

Signed through: 2031 | APY Rank: 12 | QB EPA Rank: 10/40

There’s been an fascinating statistical tradeoff for Mahomes in latest weeks. After tossing eight landing passes with 9 interceptions within the first seven video games, the TD-INT ratio has flipped to 11-2 in 5 subsequent video games. His sack charge has additionally jumped from 5.1 p.c to 9.0 p.c, whereas his charge of passes gaining greater than 15 yards has dropped. Not that any of these items have an effect on how the Chiefs really feel about their quarterback, who leads the league in fourth-quarter comebacks (4) and game-winning drives (six), per Professional Soccer Reference.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Payments

Signed through: 2028 | APY Rank: 14 | QB EPA Rank: 4/40

Allen has develop into the betting favourite for MVP honors in latest weeks and is all the things the Payments hoped they had been getting after they traded as much as draft him in 2018. His sack charge has fallen and his explosive cross charge has risen throughout all three offensive coordinators throughout his seven seasons.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens

Signed through: 2027 | APY Rank: 8 | QB EPA Rank: 1/40

The Ravens are successful the massive guess they made on Jackson after they signed him to an extension earlier than the 2023 season. Jackson’s manufacturing, in decline earlier than he signed the deal, has reached new highs. He has 41 extra whole touchdowns than turnovers since signing the deal, tied with Allen for one of the best differential within the league. Jackson ranked twenty first (+13) throughout the 2021-22 seasons.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Signed through: 2029 | APY Rank: 4 | QB EPA Rank: 6/40

Burrow handed for 820 yards with 9 touchdowns and one interception in 41-38 and 35-34 defeats to Baltimore this season, capturing the essence of this Bengals season. Cincinnati ranks fifth in offensive EPA per play however solely thirtieth on the defensive facet. That’s the largest differential between offensive and defensive rankings by means of Week 13. The opposite groups with related disparities embody the 8-5 Ravens (-24), 8-5 Commanders (-24) and 6-6 Buccaneers (-23).

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers

Signed through: 2029 | APY Rank: 7 | QB EPA Rank: 21/40

Herbert was fifth in Quarterback Tiers voting earlier than the 2023 and 2024 seasons regardless of slipping from Tier 1 to Tier 2 coming into 2024. He’s throwing fewer passes and taking extra sacks for a staff that’s successful on protection. It’s tough to think about coach Jim Harbaugh straying too removed from his run-heavy philosophy.

2. Dedicated And Hoping The Sky Is The Restrict

We predict our younger QBs can develop into stars (and there’s some proof to show we’re proper).

Jordan Love, Inexperienced Bay Packers

Signed through: 2028 | APY Rank: 3 | QB EPA Rank: 13/40

Evaluating Like to predecessor Aaron Rodgers would appear unfair if Love weren’t beginning his profession with related manufacturing.

Rodgers by means of 27 begins: 64 p.c completions, 7.8 yards per try, 50 landing passes, 18 interceptions

Love by means of 27 begins: 63 p.c completions, 7.4 yards per try, 51 landing passes, 23 interceptions

The primary variations: Rodgers added extra EPA on scrambles and misplaced extra EPA on sacks, whereas Love has misplaced extra on interceptions.

C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans

Signed through: 2026 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 26 | QB EPA Rank: 25/40

To what diploma does Stroud’s decline in manufacturing from his rookie season mirror a weakened offensive line and accidents at receiver?

That might be a key query heading into subsequent season for the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Yr.

3. Dedicated And Content material

Now we have veteran quarterbacks signed for the long run and are pleased with the state of affairs.

Jared Goff, Detroit Lions

Signed through: 2028 | APY Rank: 6 | QB EPA Rank: 3/40

Goff is proving to be an incredible good-team quarterback.

Now in his fourth season with Detroit, Goff is replicating his 2018 Tremendous Bowl season with the Rams by means of 12 video games, besides he’s throwing the ball much less incessantly and throwing it shorter, which implies a better completion charge and fewer explosive beneficial properties.

Every little thing else is about the identical: the won-lost document (11-1 each years), the passer ranking (109.9 then, 109.0 now) and the elevated yards per try (9.1 then, 8.8 now).

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles

Signed through: 2028 | APY Rank: 9 | QB EPA Rank: 12/40

The Eagles are 31-4 by means of the primary 12 video games of the previous three seasons with Hurts within the lineup. The large distinction this season is how rather more Philadelphia is leaning on its protection and floor recreation, led by Saquon Barkley.

Hurts, in his first season with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, has tried 304 passes throughout the 10-2 begin this season, down from 403 throughout the staff’s 10-2 begin final season. That’s a drop from 33.5 makes an attempt per recreation to 25.3 per recreation.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals

Signed through: 2028 | APY Rank: 10 | QB EPA Rank: 14/40

Murray appears to have matured and is not outlined by the “homework clause” Arizona put into (and later faraway from) the contract extension he signed in July 2022.

After lacking components of the previous two seasons with a torn ACL, he has began the primary 12 video games of a season for the primary time since 2020, his second yr within the league.

One large distinction from then to now: He averaged a career-high 7.6 rushes and scrambles per recreation then, in comparison with a career-low 3.9 this season. Whereas he leads the league in ESPN’s Whole QBR metric, groups are blitzing Murray rather more successfully than in latest seasons.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys

Signed through: 2028 | APY Rank: 1 | QB EPA Rank: 28/40

The Cowboys have had a successful document six occasions in seven seasons when Prescott began no less than half the video games and by no means had a shedding season (they had been 8-8 in 2019). However the staff fell off in 2024, Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring harm and his new contract is about to depend $89 million in opposition to the cap in 2025 — his age-32 season — making the long run look murkier.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Signed through: 2026 | APY Rank: 18 | QB EPA Rank: 11/40

Mayfield has discovered a house in Tampa and is offering a stable return on the Buccaneers’ three-year, $100 million funding in him. Since becoming a member of Tampa Bay final season, he ranks tenth in EPA per cross play and is tied with the Ravens’ Jackson for the league lead in landing passes (53).

The Buccaneers have a mediocre document this season (6-6) as a result of the protection ranks twenty ninth in EPA per play. Mayfield has posted career-high totals by means of 12 video games for passing yards (3,034), passing touchdowns (25), passer ranking (101.3) and EPA per cross play (0.11). He’s finished it for an offense that ranks fifth in factors per recreation (27.2) and sixth in EPA per play.

4. Dedicated And Content material, With No Ensures

We like our QBs and have them signed past this season to offers containing little or no extra assured cash. This provides us extra flexibility to contemplate our choices.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams

Signed through: 2026 | APY Rank: 15 | QB EPA Rank: 17/40

When Stafford sought a brand new contract final offseason, the Rams gave him $40 million totally assured, with solely $4 million in ensures after this season. That offers the staff higher flexibility to maneuver on from Stafford if some mixture of age/harm/efficiency leads the Rams to contemplate different choices. Stafford stays the most suitable choice now. His three game-winning drives are his most since having 4 in 2021.

Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks

Signed through: 2025 | APY Rank: 19 | QB EPA Rank: 23/40

The best way this Seahawks season has performed out below new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, with the staff skewing closely towards the cross and Kenneth Walker III rating thirtieth amongst working backs in rush yards, the main target may fall extra on the general strategy than it falls on the individual taking snaps from heart.

Regardless of the case, Smith stays below contract for 2025 below phrases favorable to the staff, as his $24.8 million in compensation shouldn’t be assured. That offers the Seahawks flexibility in the event that they determine to contemplate different choices.

Smith had 30 landing passes with 11 interceptions in his first season because the Seahawks’ starter (2022). He has 13 and 12, respectively, for an offense that has struggled to seek out consistency to this point this season.

5. Dedicated With Considerations

We signed our QB to an costly long-term extension however can’t really feel nice about it, for various causes.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins

Signed through: 2028 | APY Rank: 5 | QB EPA Rank: 2/40

The Dolphins struggled to perform when Tagovailoa was not out there to them, pushing again in opposition to perceptions that the quarterback was largely a product of coach Mike McDaniel’s scheme and the staff’s elite weaponry.

The staff has averaged 0.09 EPA per play on offense with Tagovailoa, in contrast with -0.32 per play with out him. That’s the distinction between being a top-five offense this season and being greater than twice as dangerous because the last-ranked one (Cleveland at -0.15).

Tagovailoa and the Dolphins paid a heavy worth for studying extra concerning the quarterback’s worth. The concussion he suffered in opposition to Buffalo in Week 2 spurred one other spherical of questions on his long-term well being and viability as a quarterback.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars

Signed through: 2030 | APY Rank: 2 | QB EPA Rank: 27/40

There’s little proof Lawrence can overcome robust conditions, or that the Jaguars can assist him sufficient to make sure success, however the staff nonetheless entered right into a $275 million extension with him earlier than the season, when there was no looming deadline to take action.

Right here’s the place Lawrence ranks in EPA per cross play: twenty fifth since 2021, twentieth since 2022, twenty fifth since 2023 and twenty fourth this season. He’ll possible stay among the many high 5 in common annual wage for years to return. Can he shut the hole?

6. Dedicated Till No Longer Dedicated

Our veteran starters could possibly be on the way in which out, for various causes.

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints

Signed through: 2026 | APY Rank: 16 | QB EPA Rank: 9/40

The Saints’ subsequent coach will possible assist determine what course the staff follows at quarterback after this season. Releasing Carr could possibly be tough given the staff’s salary-cap state of affairs, however all choices would appear to be on the desk because the membership units a brand new course. Designating him a post-June 1 launch would take advantage of sense if the Saints determine to chop ties.

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons

Signed through: 2027 | APY Rank: 13 | QB EPA Rank: 16/40

Cousins could possibly be working out of possibilities to reverse a latest slide in manufacturing. How lengthy earlier than first-round rookie Michael Penix Jr. turns into the most suitable choice? It appears becoming that this profession crossroads has Cousins returning to Minnesota in opposition to his former staff in Week 14. Right here’s hoping Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell is miked up throughout pregame, no less than.

Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets

Signed through: 2025 | APY Rank: 17 | QB EPA Rank: 29/40

Rodgers’ contract has a $35 million choice for 2025. It’s tough to see the Jets exercising it when a franchise refresh appears acceptable and Rodgers, who simply turned 41, has misplaced athleticism.

As disappointing as this Jets season has been from a quarterback standpoint, this is likely to be worse: The staff’s 88.2 passer ranking is its second-best by means of 12 video games since 2008.

7. Dedicated, However At What Worth?

Our QB has earned an extension, however latest occasions have raised questions concerning the worth.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Signed through: 2025 | APY Rank: 84 | QB EPA Rank: 7/40

Purdy, with lower than $3 million in profession earnings, has a $1.1 million wage in 2024. He’s been the NFL’s greatest discount over the previous two-plus seasons and must be in line for an enormous elevate, however how large?

Six weeks in the past, the dialog revolved round whether or not Purdy may money in for $60 million per yr. However because the season slips away and a few of Purdy’s bodily limitations floor, may the 49ers determine to attend? Might they pursue extra of a compromise deal, within the spirit of what Inexperienced Bay did with Love in 2023? There’s time to determine one thing.

8. Heaps to Play For Down The Stretch With Contract Talks Forward

The veteran we signed on a budget will command an extension if this retains up.

Russell Wilson, Pittsburgh Steelers

Signed through: 2024 | APY Rank: 63 | QB EPA Rank: 8/40

The one-year, $1.2 million deal Wilson signed with the Steelers (whereas nonetheless gathering $37.8 million from Denver on his earlier deal) ranks as the most important discount within the league this season.

Wilson’s passing manufacturing in six begins initiatives to 4,706 yards with 28 touchdowns and 9 interceptions over a 17-game schedule. The ultimate 5 video games ship some tough defenses, however with the Steelers all however assured a playoff berth, Wilson has an incredible alternative to make Pittsburgh his longer-term dwelling.

9. Evaluating: Lengthy Runways

Our first-round rookies are simply getting began.

Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders

Signed through: 2027 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 24 | QB EPA Rank: 5/40

This season has showcased Daniels’ dual-threat prowess together with some preexisting sturdiness considerations, however Washington should be very pleased with its choice of Daniels general. His EPA per cross play ranks fifth by means of 13 begins amongst all rookies since 2000, per TruMedia. Matt Ryan, Robert Griffin III, Ben Roethlisberger and Prescott rank increased. Wilson, Herbert and Stroud rank sixth by means of eighth, respectively. That’s good firm for Daniels.

Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Signed through: 2027 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 22 | QB EPA Rank: 30/40

Williams has gone from rating among the many backside 10 in EPA per cross play below former coordinator Shane Waldron to rating among the many high 10 after three video games with Thomas Brown within the function. Whether or not that’s sustainable, the uptick has been encouraging for the No. 1 decide within the 2024 draft. Who might be teaching Williams for the long run?

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Signed through: 2027 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 39 | QB EPA Rank: 26/40

Nix has feasted on the AFC West and NFC South, combining for 15 landing passes with one interception in eight video games, together with six Denver victories. He ranks among the many high 10 in a spread of passing classes, together with EPA per cross play, since Week 8.

Drake Maye, New England Patriots

Signed through: 2027 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 25 | QB EPA Rank: 22/40

Maye has much less round him than the opposite first-round rookie quarterbacks, one purpose the Patriots had been reluctant to begin him instantly. He has arguably outperformed expectations on condition that context, shifting the main target away from him and onto what New England should do to assist him within the coming offseason.

10. Evaluating: Clock Is Ticking

We haven’t given up on the 2023 first-round picks we benched, however there’s some urgency.

Bryce Younger, Carolina Panthers

Benched after solely two video games this season, Younger has performed properly sufficient in 5 video games since his return to resume hope for his future. The Panthers are 2-3 and averaging 21.4 offensive factors per recreation since Younger’s return. They’d a 2-16 document whereas averaging 11.2 factors per recreation on offense in his earlier 18 begins.

Signed through: 2026 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 23 | QB EPA Rank: 34/40

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Signed through: 2026 (not counting fifth-year choice) | APY Rank: 29 | QB EPA Rank: 31/40

The Colts had been a lot worse on offense throughout the two video games Joe Flacco began than they had been beforehand or since Richardson returned to the lineup for the previous three video games. Richardson stays a low-percentage passer able to the spectacular however remains to be searching for consistency. How affected person will the Colts be in creating him?

11. Evaluating: Want An Different

Our younger QB may play his means right into a future with us, but it surely’s trying like we’ll be out there for an improve.

Will Levis, Tennessee Titans

Signed through: 2026 | APY Rank: 53 | QB EPA Rank: 35/40

The Titans’ present teaching workers inherited Levis and will hold him however presumably wouldn’t wish to guess its future on him, given the returns to this point. Can Levis end sturdy?

Aidan O’Connell, Las Vegas Raiders

Signed through: 2026 | APY Rank: 71 | QB EPA Rank: 15/40

The Raiders had O’Connell on their roster coming into this season and most well-liked signing Gardner Minshew for $12.5 million per yr. Can O’Connell play his means into their future plans over the remaining 5 video games? His 340-yard recreation at Kansas Metropolis was a begin.

12. Thank You For Your Service (And The Future Comp Decide)

We’re grateful for our QB however dedicated to a unique one.

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings

Signed through: 2024 | APY Rank: 21 | QB EPA Rank: 19/40

The idea right here is that Darnold has performed properly sufficient to earn a chance higher than what the Vikings can promise him in 2025, when first-round decide J.J. McCarthy returns from knee surgical procedure to presumably declare the beginning job.

13. Possible Headed to Free Company as a Bridge Starter/Backup

There might be a marketplace for these veterans, however not essentially because the undisputed starter.

Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns

Signed through: 2024 | APY Rank: 42 | QB EPA Rank: 20/40

The Browns are averaging 21.8 offensive factors per recreation when Winston begins after averaging 13.4 when Deshaun Watson was within the lineup earlier within the season. Their charge of explosive cross performs has greater than doubled from 8.4 p.c with Watson to 17.8 p.c with Winston.

It’s attainable the Browns or one other staff will challenge Winston as a starter subsequent season. The 2 decide sixes Winston threw in opposition to Denver on Monday evening tempered a number of the latest enthusiasm.

Daniel Jones, Minnesota Vikings

Signed through: 2024 | APY Rank: 90 | QB EPA Rank: 32/40

Jones may fill the Darnold function for the Vikings subsequent season if Darnold finds a greater alternative elsewhere. He may additionally check the market, though extra time with O’Connell in Minnesota could possibly be good for his profession long run.

14. We’re Wanting For A Means Out

Assist! Our quarterback couldn’t begin for any staff, however we owe him greater than $90 million over the subsequent two seasons.

Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns

Signed through: 2026 | APY Rank: 11 | QB EPA Rank: 40/40

The worst contract in NFL historical past isn’t getting higher quickly sufficient for the Browns. Watson, out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon, is scheduled to depend $72.9 million in opposition to the cap in every of the subsequent two seasons. These figures could possibly be manipulated in numerous methods, however Watson is getting his cash regardless, except he violates the contract indirectly.

(High picture of Russell Wilson, left, and Aaron Rodgers: Joe Sargent / Getty Pictures)