The New Zealand Institute of Financial Analysis (NZIER) Quarterly Survey of Enterprise Opinion (QSBO) for Sep 2024 requires extra aggressive RBNZ motion, TDS FX analysts Prashant Newnaha and Alex Lavatory notice.
RBNZ to ship sequential cuts in 2025
“We keep on with a 50bps lower within the In a single day Money Price (OCR) at subsequent week’s Financial Coverage Assessment (MPR) assembly. Nonetheless, we modify our name for the Nov Financial Coverage Assertion (MPS) assembly from a 25bps lower to a 50bps lower.”
“For 2025, we now count on the RBNZ to ship sequential cuts, with the OCR hitting 3% by the August assembly. Our prior forecast assumed the RBNZ getting to three% with cuts delivered solely at MPS conferences in 2025 and 2026.”
“There have been restricted adjustments to our bond forecasts given our prior bullish charges stance. We see restricted scope for a big rally in charges from right here based mostly on home elements. Our bias is to trim/shut lengthy/obtained positions on power.”
