After the Syrian authorities’s collapse on December 8, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made an sudden diplomatic go to to Jordan and Turkey on December 11.
Whereas the official function of the journey was to have interaction in discussions on Syria’s fragmented future, the broader geopolitical ramifications are far-reaching, significantly with regard to the potential for Western entry to Syria’s huge arsenal of Soviet-era and Russian-supplied weapons.
This consists of the whole lot from superior artillery rounds to stylish foremost battle tanks [MBTs] and armored autos.
Syria’s arsenal, lengthy thought of a strategic asset for each regional and international powers, is now positioned as a possible game-changer within the ongoing battle in Ukraine.
Syria’s arms stockpiles—starting from massive portions of 152mm and 122mm artillery shells to over 3,000 tanks together with T-54/55, T-62, T-72, and T-90 fashions—may considerably shift the stability of energy on the frontlines, significantly as Ukraine’s personal army assets proceed to dwindle.
With Russia having bolstered its weapons provides and manufacturing via inner scaling and exterior help from North Korea, the disparity in firepower between the 2 sides continues to develop.
From a technical standpoint, the Syrian army’s gear presents each alternatives and challenges for Ukrainian forces. The T-72 and T-90 tanks, whereas not cutting-edge by trendy requirements, nonetheless possess formidable capabilities, together with composite armor, highly effective 125mm smoothbore weapons, and superior concentrating on techniques that might present Ukraine with a major increase of their tank brigades.
The potential of integrating Syrian tanks into Ukraine’s present forces is especially essential, as Kyiv’s personal inventory of recent tanks stays restricted, and Western-supplied armor has been sluggish to materialize.
The artillery side of Syria’s weapons stock additionally holds vital strategic worth. The estimated 1 million artillery rounds in Syria’s stockpiles would considerably improve Ukraine’s capability to keep up sustained bombardment on Russian positions.
The 152mm artillery rounds, particularly, might be of excessive curiosity, as they’re appropriate with each older Soviet-made techniques and extra trendy artillery items utilized by Ukrainian forces.
The impression of such a provide could be felt not solely within the sheer quantity of munitions but additionally within the operational flexibility it could present to Ukrainian artillery items, doubtlessly tipping the size in extended engagements.
On the bottom, the logistics of transferring such an unlimited quantity of weaponry from Syria to Ukraine stay a key problem. Turkey’s affect over Syrian Islamist militias, which management massive components of northern Syria, will seemingly be pivotal in facilitating these transfers.
Ankara’s leverage over these militias—a lot of which have ties to Turkish army items—locations it in a central function. In return for cooperation, the U.S. could supply Turkey numerous incentives, reminiscent of lowering help for Kurdish teams in Syria, elevated financial assist, and doubtlessly facilitating Turkey’s return to the F-35 program.
Technically, the switch course of would require coordination between U.S. intelligence, Turkish logistics, and Ukrainian army officers to make sure the efficient motion of those weapons.
Whereas Western arms transfers have been hampered by logistical challenges and the complicated safety surroundings in Syria, the size and urgency of this potential switch counsel {that a} well-coordinated operation might be within the works.
Moreover, the potential inflow of those weapons might be some of the vital shifts within the stability of energy in Ukraine for the reason that battle started.
The switch of Syrian artillery and armor would offer Ukrainian forces with not solely extra firepower but additionally much-needed redundancy of their weapon techniques, enhancing their capability to keep up stress on Russian forces, significantly within the Donbas and southern fronts.
The broader implications of this improvement, nevertheless, prolong past simply army {hardware}. The switch of Syria’s arms to Ukraine, facilitated by Turkey, may sign a major shift in regional alliances and strategic calculations.
By leveraging Syria’s huge stockpiles, the West wouldn’t solely increase Ukraine’s defensive capabilities but additionally additional erode Russia’s strategic benefits within the area.
As Russia continues to face difficulties in sustaining its provide traces and armor manufacturing, Syria’s shares symbolize a crucial useful resource that might prolong the battle’s period and additional undermine Russia’s efforts to say dominance within the area.
This potential switch underscores the more and more technical and multifaceted nature of recent warfare, the place the management and motion of huge army assets are as necessary as battlefield engagements.
Because the battle in Ukraine grinds on, the power to faucet into sudden sources of army provide—reminiscent of Syria—could show to be some of the decisive elements in shaping the result of the battle.
With the autumn of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, Russia finds itself in a strategic bind, with the important thing query being the way to stop Syrian weaponry from falling into Ukrainian palms.
Syria’s huge stockpiles, together with over 1 million artillery shells and hundreds of foremost battle tanks just like the T-54/55, T-62, and T-72, symbolize a major useful resource for the Ukrainian army, which is grappling with a rising scarcity of kit.
The first concern for Russia isn’t solely the lack of direct management over the Syrian armed forces following Assad’s collapse but additionally the instability attributable to the deep fragmentation of Syrian territory.
A number of armed factions, every with their very own pursuits, are actually vying for management of crucial army belongings. Whereas Russia could try and affect these factions, the fragmented political scenario makes this a troublesome activity.
Russian forces could attempt to perform focused assaults towards logistics routes via which weapons may movement to Ukraine, together with airstrikes or cyberattacks. Nevertheless, given the rising affect of Turkey and Israel within the area, such measures could show ineffective.
Technically, Russia may exert restricted affect over the logistics networks, however halting these weapon transfers could be difficult if Turkey or different intermediaries select to take part within the association.
Extra seemingly, Russia will deal with diplomatic efforts with Iran and Turkey to dam these transfers. These efforts may embrace pressuring Turkey to shut transport routes via its territory or stop the motion of Syrian arms underneath commerce agreements.
Nevertheless, Russia’s capability to take vital motion stays constrained by the geopolitical realities, which not favor Moscow.
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