[Robert J. Fouser] Coping with Trump’s comeback

The outcomes of final week’s US presidential election shocked a lot of the world. Forward of the vote, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris appeared tied, however Trump ended up profitable by a cushty margin, each within the fashionable vote and the Electoral Faculty. Anger over inflation and a want for change had been an excessive amount of for Harris to beat in her quick marketing campaign. Republicans additionally took the bulk within the Senate and narrowly held their majority within the Home of Representatives — although a few of these members are set to affix Trump’s administration — placing them in a robust place to push Trump’s MAGA agenda.

As solely the second president to win re-election after a defeat, Trump’s victory stands as one of many biggest political comebacks in US historical past. Although not a landslide, Trump grew to become the primary Republican to win the favored vote since George W. Bush, then an incumbent, in 2004. He grew to become the primary Republican since George H. W. Bush in 1988 to win the favored vote in a race with no incumbent operating. His electoral vote whole was the best for a Republican since 1988.

What does Trump’s return to the White Home imply, significantly for South Korea? Greater than something, Trump’s return exhibits that his 2016 victory was not a fluke however the starting of a political motion with endurance. In 2016, Trump received the Electoral Faculty however misplaced the favored vote to Hillary Clinton by 2 %; he additionally confronted headwinds from the Republican institution. Now he’s in full management of the Republican Get together whereas commanding a well-liked mandate.

Donald Trump’s sturdy place now, nevertheless, masks vital weaknesses that may form his time period. The primary, and most evident, is that Trump enters workplace a lame duck as a result of he can’t run once more in 2028. Due to this structural situation, second-term presidents should depend on their approval scores to stay politically related. Ronald Reagan, Invoice Clinton and Barack Obama all maintained excessive approval scores and remained politically related of their second phrases. George W. Bush, against this, noticed his approval scores collapse and left workplace as a failed president.

The second downside for Trump is the 2026 midterm election. Except for George W. Bush, each president since Invoice Clinton has seen one of many homes of Congress change to the political opposition within the first midterm election of his time period. The document for midterm elections within the second time period is even worse. Each president, besides Invoice Clinton, because the Civil Conflict has misplaced numerous seats. This historical past means that Trump will lose management of the narrowly divided Home of Representatives in 2026, which is able to exacerbate his lame-duck standing.

Trump’s third downside is Trump himself. As a narcissist, he’s compelled to be the focal point. All the pieces must revolve round him. His obvious confidence masks deep insecurities that have an effect on his judgment and worldview. A lot of the chaos in his first time period mirrored an absence of self-discipline and strategic pondering. The chaos saved his approval scores low, value him within the 2018 midterms, and set the stage for 2 impeachments and defeat in 2020.

For South Korea, Donald Trump’s structural and private weaknesses counsel that one of the best ways to cope with him is to give attention to the lengthy view. Former President Moon Jae-in adopted this technique efficiently whereas asserting South Korea’s nationwide curiosity.

Commerce and protection are early flash factors. Trump has lengthy believed that the community of US alliances and the free-trade regime has allowed nations to benefit from the US. These are agency beliefs that he is not going to change, regardless of proof on the contrary. This makes allies like South Korea that host US army forces prime targets. Trump’s wrath, nevertheless, is directed extra towards Europe than South Korea or Japan, partly due to his curiosity in selling Indo-Pacific cooperation as a counterweight to China.

The Russo-Ukrainian Conflict, the Center East and China will doubtless be the main target of Trump’s overseas coverage for many of his first 12 months, if not longer, which is able to give South Korea some respiratory room. Sooner or later, he could attempt to revive engagement with North Korea, however the nation’s latest embrace of Russia complicates any such effort.

Trump will more than likely impose tariffs as quickly as he will get into workplace. They’re inflationary and dangerous for enterprise, and the response from Wall Road and US customers can be sharply detrimental. The tariff chaos, like every little thing else Trump, can be all consuming, however because the Persian adage holds, “this too shall go.”

Robert J. Fouser

Robert J. Fouser, a former affiliate professor of Korean language schooling at Seoul Nationwide College, writes on Korea from Windfall, Rhode Island. He could be reached at robertjfouser@gmail.com. The views expressed listed below are the author’s personal. — Ed.