September is often a tough month for Apple — and it is a toss-up as as to whether this yr might be any completely different. Apple is anticipated to announce new iPhones and Apple Watch fashions on Sept. 9 throughout a press occasion at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The tech large sometimes unveils these new fashions at its fall launches forward of the vacation procuring season. Apple’s share worth tends to maneuver larger as traders’ pleasure builds up forward of its product bulletins, in keeping with a FactSet evaluation. However the inventory’s lowest common returns happen in the course of the month of the launches. Apple shares averaged a September lack of 3.5% over the previous 10 years. That pullback comes after gaining a mean of 6.5% in July and 4.8% in August, the evaluation reveals. Apple gained 3.1% in August, and it has jumped practically 19% this yr. Morgan Stanley analysts suppose this yr’s announcement from Apple might lead to higher inventory efficiency than historical past signifies. That’s partly as a result of the upcoming occasion — which is able to probably be centered on an anticipated Apple Intelligence integration into the iPhone 16 mannequin — might gas demand for the corporate’s extremely anticipated synthetic intelligence-related developments . “Traditionally, the iPhone launch occasion has been a sell-the-news occasion, with Apple barely underperforming the market the day of the iPhone launch, after which solely modestly outperforming the market within the 3 months following the occasion,” analyst Erik Woodring wrote in a Thursday notice. “We do not essentially anticipate the market to behave otherwise when Apple introduces the iPhone 16 on September ninth, however we do see the potential for Apple to carry out higher than historic seasonality into year-end because the introduction of the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence helps to unlock pent-up demand,” he added. Woodring stated Apple shares have traditionally outperformed when the corporate’s product alternative cycles shorten. Certainly, he forecasts a contraction in iPhone alternative cycles by way of fiscal 2026. Apple remains to be a “high decide” for Morgan Stanley, and Woodring stated he stays bullish on the tech firm’s alternative to drive a multiyear product cycle refresh and to speed up iPhone alternative cycles. He has an chubby score on the inventory with a $273 worth goal, which suggests 19.2% potential upside from Friday’s shut. UBS analyst David Vogt, alternatively, has a impartial score on shares with a $190 worth goal, indicating shares might see a 17% lower over the subsequent yr. He stated in a Tuesday notice that the month of August sometimes sees the bottom shopper purchases of iPhone fashions, including that there’s “threat constructing into the Sept. launch.” Apple’s iPhones accounted for about 46% of the corporate’s complete gross sales within the fiscal third quarter . “If Aug iPhone models are available in round 14M, down ~3% [month-over-month], in-line with latest seasonality, absent channel fill, Sept-24 sell-through must are available in at 22.6M to hit our estimate, up ~20% YoY, a excessive bar in our view given Apple Intelligence is in beta and never obtainable in Europe,” the analyst stated.
