Tennis storylines to look at: Nadal’s health, WTA Finals in Saudi, and which Tiafoe will flip up?

The Grand Slam season is over, and the WTA and ATP Finals are quickly approaching.

These subsequent two months could be a unusual interval for tennis — particularly in an Olympic 12 months — with some gamers conserving their powder dry for the next season whereas others desperately attempt to end the 12 months strongly.

Right here, The Athletic appears at among the major storylines we anticipate to play out between now and the tip of 2024.

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How bothered is Alcaraz about ending the 12 months as world No 1?

After profitable the U.S. Open, Jannik Sinner has a giant lead within the race to be the year-end world No 1. He’s just below 2,900 factors forward of the No 2 Alexander Zverev after which a contact additional in entrance of the No 3 Carlos Alcaraz.

Which will appear unusual given Sinner and Alcaraz have shared the 12 months’s two Grand Slams, however the latter has been far much less constant all through 2024.

With two Masters 1000 occasions to come back, plus the year-end ATP Finals in November (value a possible 1,500 factors), there’s nonetheless time for Alcaraz or Zverev to reel in Sinner.

However how a lot does Alcaraz wish to make that type of cost? Within the equal swing final 12 months, he struggled — he didn’t make a ultimate and was thrashed by Novak Djokovic within the ATP Finals semis to finish his 12 months with a whimper. Alcaraz, regardless of being solely 21, is doing an excellent job of managing his thoughts and physique to peak on the Grand Slams.

So what’s going to his priorities be for the following few months? Will he wish to right the wrongs of his early exits in Cincinnati and the U.S. Open, of which he spoke once more final week about how he let himself down? Or will he largely see the tip of this 12 months as a cooling-off interval earlier than actually going for it once more on the Australian Open in January?

With the prospect in Melbourne to turn into the youngest man to finish the profession Grand Slam, it could be little shock if he opted for the latter. Final 12 months, Alcaraz’s detached type on the finish of the earlier season bled into the Australian Open, so a cost for the end line this 12 months could be an attention-grabbing change-up. For all he’s gained, Alcaraz remains to be tweaking issues as he adjusts to the rhythms of tour life.

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How a lot will Saudi Arabia dominate the tennis panorama?

For this 12 months’s WTA Finals in November, this problem is much less about who qualifies and extra in regards to the sideshow across the occasion.

Final 12 months’s equal in Cancun was a shambles, with stormy climate and substandard services driving the gamers to distraction. Count on no such logistical points this time, with Riyadh taking on as hosts and positive to placed on a effective present.

The problem is all the pieces that goes round internet hosting a girls’s sporting occasion in Saudi Arabia — a rustic with an “abysmal” report on girls’s rights (based on Amnesty Worldwide this 12 months). The nation has launched some reforms over the previous couple of years, and factors to the “private standing” regulation established in 2022 as proof of progress in girls’s rights. However this regulation stipulates {that a} girl has to acquire a male guardian’s permission to marry, and has to obey her husband in a “affordable method”. Girls have solely been permitted to drive within the nation since 2018.

These are vastly sophisticated points that may’t be totally examined right here, however the eight WTA gamers in Riyadh will likely be requested about them and the appropriateness of internet hosting the occasion in Saudi Arabia. What number of will put their head above the parapet and interact? Not that they’re those who ought to essentially should — it was not their choice to host the occasion there.

Saudi Arabia may even host the ‘6 Kings Slam’ exhibition in October, that includes Alcaraz, Sinner, Novak Djokovic and Nadal, and the ATP Subsequent Gen Finals in Jeddah in December. In the meantime, discussions rumble on within the background in regards to the nation internet hosting a Masters 1000 occasion. It guarantees to be a giant few months within the burgeoning relationship between Saudi and tennis.

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What subsequent for Nadal?

Talking of Nadal, will we see him in aggressive motion once more this 12 months? The 22-time Grand Slam champion has already pulled out of this weekend’s Laver Cup, and doesn’t have a tour-level occasion on the horizon. He was final seen in singles motion taking a battering from his outdated rival Djokovic on the Olympics in late July, and of his Laver Cup withdrawal he didn’t point out any specifics, saying vaguely that: “I must do what’s greatest for them and there are different gamers who may help the crew ship the win.”

With gathered accidents and health considerations forcing Nadal out of the U.S. Open (he stated with related vagueness that he wouldn’t “have the ability to give my 100 per cent”), you marvel what he’s constructing as much as. We don’t know if this will likely be his final 12 months on tour, however the Davis Cup finals in his dwelling nation in November really feel like an acceptable, and presumably sensible, goal to work in the direction of.

Elsewhere, the remainder of the 12 months may even see tennis say farewell to another extremely popular gamers — together with Dominic Thiem, 31 (on the Vienna Open), and Danielle Collins, 30 (on the Billie Jean King Cup Finals).

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Extra of the identical from Swiatek?

World No 1 Iga Swiatek has already pulled out of the Billie Jean King Cup finals in November (in addition to this week’s Korea Open) to offer herself a correct off season, however typically the expectation is that she’ll go full throttle between now and the tip of the 12 months.

Swiatek doesn’t actually know one other method. In Cincinnati final month, she spoke out in regards to the jam-packed schedule, notably the elevated variety of obligatory occasions, and stated it risked burning the gamers out. “It’s not going to finish nicely,” she stated. “It makes tennis much less enjoyable for us. I really like taking part in in all these locations, nevertheless it’s fairly exhausting and many of the WTA gamers would let you know that, particularly whenever you’re taking part in at a excessive stage.”

A couple of weeks later, after her tired-looking defeat to Jessica Pegula within the U.S. Open quarterfinals, you wouldn’t have blamed Swiatek for taking a while off. “I don’t suppose it could make sense,” responded an nearly affronted sounding Swiatek. “When you’re out of tour, then it’s fairly arduous to come back again… I’m prepared for enjoying until November, I suppose, except I’m going to get injured.”

Swiatek’s strategy has typically been to simply preserve going, and her general consistency is why she is greater than 2,000 factors clear on the prime of the rankings, regardless of profitable one Grand Slam to Aryna Sabalenka’s two in 2024. It’s the strategy that noticed Swiatek pip the Belarusian to the highest spot on the finish of final 12 months after a surge on the WTA Finals.

This time round, will Swiatek’s thoughts begin to wander to subsequent 12 months?

It’s going to even be attention-grabbing to see whether or not Swiatek begins to play with a bit extra freedom and selection with much less on the road these subsequent few months. She’s retreated increasingly into sticking with Plan A even when it’s not working, and it’s not been working as nicely since Roland Garros (no finals in her 4 occasions since).

By the way, a lot of the above is also stated of Coco Gauff, who has veered badly off target because the French Open.

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Will Sabalenka cement herself as de facto No 1?

There was some suggestion after profitable her second main of the 12 months on the U.S. Open that it was Sabalenka reasonably than Swiatek who was now the lady to beat on the WTA Tour — regardless of what the rankings counsel.

That most likely overstates it given Swiatek’s staggering general consistency on the tour and large rating factors lead — but when Sabalenka can have the higher hand in these closing couple of months so as to add to her superior Grand Slam efficiency this 12 months, then she actually will go into 2025 with the aura of the participant the others’ most concern.

If that’s not the case already.

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Will Tiafoe ‘flip the web page’ or ‘half-ass it’?

During the last couple of years, Frances Tiafoe has primarily constructed his 12 months round two tournaments: the U.S. Open and Wimbledon. There are another necessary ones, positive, however none that evaluate to these two.

This 12 months has been one other instance of this, with Tiafoe taking part in by far his greatest matches in New York and south-west London. On the latter, this nonetheless ended up in a defeat — in 5 units to Alcaraz — nevertheless it reignited the flame in Tiafoe and set him up for that semifinal run on the U.S. Open this month.

After his event ultimately ended with a defeat to compatriot Taylor Fritz within the semis, Tiafoe vowed that he would tweak his strategy. That he would put within the work all 12 months spherical to offer himself the very best likelihood of peaking at his two favorite occasions. “I’m gonna flip the web page, I’m going to attempt to finish the 12 months robust,” he stated in New York. “I’m going to go to Asia, do the entire thing, do it the appropriate method and never half-ass it.”

Now the adrenaline has worn off, will Tiafoe make good on that pledge? It’s thrilling to think about Tiafoe being a better issue on the tour. Not simply because it could imply we’d get to see probably the most magnetic gamers on the ATP Tour, but additionally as a result of it could set him up a lot better for these clutch matches, and probably make encounters on the slams with gamers like Alcaraz much more epic.

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What number of People will attain Turin?

The race to Turin, the place the very best eight gamers from the 12 months will compete within the ATP Finals, affords an excellent indication of the state of American males’s tennis. Taylor Fritz is fifth within the race and behind him, there’s a clutch of 4 gamers between No 11 and No 20 (ie, excellent however not but elite).

Fritz appears an excellent wager to make the finals in Italy after his U.S. Open ultimate run, however will any of Tommy Paul (No 11), Tiafoe (14), Sebastian Korda (17) and Ben Shelton (20) will likely be becoming a member of him?

Doing so would do loads for any of these gamers’ confidence, whereas additionally leaving them almost definitely as a top-eight seed for the Australian Open, and guaranteeing themselves a barely simpler draw.

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Which of the crew occasions will stand out?

This part of the 12 months is when crew occasions are most outstanding. The Davis Cup and Billie Jean King Cup are in a relentless battle to remain related, so it’ll be attention-grabbing to see what number of prime gamers end up for the finals in Malaga on the finish of an arduous season. Swiatek and Gauff have already pulled out of the BJK Cup finals. Alcaraz performed for Spain within the Davis Cup final week so, barring an harm, the expectation is he’ll accomplish that once more in November. Possibly Nadal will be part of him.

As for the Laver Cup, this would be the second 12 months in a row with not one of the ‘Large Three’ in motion. Alcaraz being in Berlin will assist however for an occasion that has all the time been so pushed by star energy, it is going to be attention-grabbing to see the way it evolves over the following few years.

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Will any gamers have late breakthroughs?

With gamers usually working out of steam at the moment of 12 months, there is a chance for among the more energizing figures to make hay within the ultimate two months of the season. That may very well be somebody extra established, reminiscent of Pegula, who appears recharged after taking break day earlier within the 12 months, pushing for a top-three rankings end (presumably even prime two), or somebody youthful, reminiscent of Diana Shnaider (20 years outdated), who has loads of momentum behind her and never many miles on the clock, going after an announcement victory.

On the boys’s aspect, Britain’s Jack Draper has a recreation that appears nicely suited to indoor tennis and has the prospect to construct on his glorious displaying in New York and push in the direction of the world’s prime 10.

Within the instant time period, the principle give attention to the ladies’s aspect this week is on the Korea Open 500 occasion in Seoul. For the boys, the Laver Cup, beginning on Friday, guarantees to dominate.

Even with no extra Grand Slams this 12 months, there are many speaking factors between now and the tip of the season.

(CARL DE SOUZA/AFP through Getty Photos)