Pennsylvania is the middle of the political universe and will probably be for not less than the following 18 days. On that there’s close to full settlement. However the political geography of the Keystone State — as soon as so predictable — is now in flux in methods which might be maintaining probably the most savvy political gamers in each events up at night time.
Blue-collar employees are welded to former President Donald Trump, and white girls enraged by the top of Roe v. Wade are flocking to Vice President Kamala Harris. Black males are trying out, and Latinos are sliding rightward. Counties and constituencies that weren’t in play a number of years in the past abruptly are. Who will truly prove in a state that was determined by about 1 share level within the final two cycles is the stuff of marketing campaign operatives’ nightmares as they assess whether or not to hunt for brand spanking new votes or shore up the bottom.
To get some perception into the delicate shifts that may resolve this must-have state, for this week’s Playbook Deep Dive Podcast I known as up two native specialists:
On the Democratic facet, Philadelphia Metropolis Councilmember Isaiah Thomas, who can also be the chair of Black Males for Harris Pennsylvania. And talking for Republicans, Charlie Gerow, a longtime operative in Harrisburg, the place he runs a political consulting agency. Gerow has additionally been a candidate for workplace earlier than, so he is aware of his stuff.
In our dialog, Thomas and Gerow talked about the place their candidates are competing for a similar voters — and the place they’re going in several instructions; what areas and demographics are most in play, together with some shocking settlement that the southwestern nook goes to be vital for each campaigns to do nicely in.
This dialog has been edited for size and readability by Deep Dive Producer Kara Tabor and Senior Producer Alex Keeney. You’ll be able to hearken to the total Playbook Deep Dive podcast interview right here:
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Gents, I need to begin with a simple one. How a lot is your candidate going to win the commonwealth of Pennsylvania by?
Isaiah Thomas: This race is so shut. Each single day we’re seeking to push individuals simply to get out the vote. I believe that is the largest factor for us in Philadelphia and our surrounding space. And on the finish of the day, I do consider the Harris marketing campaign will probably be victorious. And if I needed to take a smooth guess, then I’ll say by plus three factors.
Charlie, how about you? How a lot is Donald Trump going to win the state of Pennsylvania by?
Charlie Gerow: I am just a little extra conservative, so I consider that Donald Trump will win Pennsylvania by two factors, which within the grand scheme of issues is a landslide. As a result of as , within the earlier two campaigns for the presidency, Pennsylvania has been razor skinny.
So landslides throughout. When you consider an important areas of the state for Donald Trump, Charlie, the place are the locations that he completely has to win and win by quite a bit?
Charlie Gerow: Nicely, he is acquired to run up the vote within the vaunted “T” of central Pennsylvania and the northern tier. However he additionally has to do very nicely within the southwest, the place you have got historic Democrat cities and cities that at the moment are voting closely Republican. If he does, I believe he’s the following president. The opposite place that is perhaps attention-grabbing to take a look at is alongside that collar-county rim surrounding the town of Philadelphia. Bucks County, which had been registered Democrat up till simply very not too long ago, has now switched to Republican.
Councilman, how about you? What are the areas for Harris which might be must-win or that she thinks she’s going to do the most effective in?
Isaiah Thomas: So I’d just about say the alternative of what Charlie simply stated. I believe that southeastern Pennsylvania is an enormous a part of the Harris path to victory. I believe [Pittsburgh’s] Allegheny County is an enormous a part of Harris’ path to victory. And I believe being respectable within the different counties in between Allegheny County and Philadelphia. I believe if the turnout is the place we anticipate it to be so far as voter participation in these two counties particularly, I believe Montgomery County and different suburban counties will observe swimsuit. The query is how many individuals will truly come out to vote, not essentially who they will vote for.
One of many issues that is been actually attention-grabbing to observe on the Harris facet is her going to elements of Pennsylvania that Democrats do not sometimes go to. They’ve this type of “lose much less” in rural areas or non-city areas plan. Does that appear prefer it’s working, councilman?
Isaiah Thomas: I do not assume it’s a nasty concept in any respect. I believe it is vital that you simply contact as many individuals as potential. However if you go to these smaller cities, you ship a message that their vote issues, that you simply care about them.
Charlie, ought to the Trump people be just a little nervous about Harris going to locations that Democrats do not sometimes go?
Charlie Gerow: No. And the reason being that Donald Trump goes to locations the place Republicans have not historically gone. And he is doing very, very nicely there. However I’ll say this: Turnout goes to be the deciding issue on this election. And to date in Philadelphia, for instance, it has not been good for the Democrats. They’re lagging behind the place they had been 4 years in the past when it comes to early voting. So I believe there are some weak spots there for the Harris marketing campaign that they might be higher off shoring up relatively than wanting into locations the place there are no fish available.
Harris is heading to the Philadelphia suburbs, so she’s clearly getting that message.
One of many issues that is actually attention-grabbing to me is the distinction within the floor sport. The Harris marketing campaign says they’ve 50 coordinated places of work and practically 400 workers on the bottom. A Trump spokesperson informed my colleagues it has greater than two dozen places of work within the state, one which’s targeted on Latino outreach in Studying and one other in Philadelphia, the place a lot of the group’s Black voter engagement takes place.
Councilman, if you take a look at the bottom sport, what is the distinction? Does it truly matter as a lot contemplating how these elections are run these days?
Isaiah Thomas: The Harris marketing campaign has created loads of completely different coalitions. Once I take into consideration what we’re doing, not simply in Philadelphia, however throughout Pennsylvania, you need to have that bodily presence, you additionally should assume that Vice President Harris got here into the marketing campaign a lot later than former President Trump did. And so the thought of needing to construct out a marketing campaign, construct up momentum, enhance identify ID, educate and inform individuals concerning the significance of this election, who Kamala Harris is, and what each candidates have communicated because it pertains to their place on the problems — that is loads of work. I believe it has been efficient.
Once I take into consideration what the Trump marketing campaign has been in a position to thrive off of is social media or data on-line. I consider loads of that data is fake. However loads of the problems that I’ve seen speaking the previous president’s opinion, they’ve been predominantly by way of the web, on-line, on adverts and issues of that capability. They’re additionally targeted on a demographic who would not dwell in as condensed locations as what the Harris marketing campaign is specializing in. So when you consider having extra of a bodily presence with places of work and issues of that capability, it is most likely just a little tougher for them to canvass and knock doorways. There’s not loads of union help on that facet in Pennsylvania, so you may see loads of unions and grassroots organizations knocking doorways and touching voters in loads of dense and concrete areas throughout the commonwealth.
Charlie, is the councilman proper that the Trump marketing campaign is usually dwelling off social media on the subject of getting out the vote in Pennsylvania? Are they doing sufficient?
Charlie Gerow: All people likes to chatter concerning the floor sport and the way excellent theirs is. However there are some indications of how your floor sport is working, and one among them is voter registration. The registration hole between Republicans and Democrats has completely collapsed in Pennsylvania over the course of the previous few years, and notably in 2024. And a major variety of these registrations which might be altering are Democrat to Republican. There is a purpose why the voter hole between the Democrats and Republicans now could be near 300,000, whereas eight years in the past, it was 650,000 plus. That is achieved on the bottom with the blocking and tackling of politics and with boots on the bottom.
Early voting is one other indication. Democrats have all the time dwarfed Republicans as a result of Republicans choose to vote in-person and most of them do. However Republicans have caught on to the truth that in case you financial institution your vote, it is assured to be solid. And so the Republican request for mail-in ballots is means, means up this yr and the Democrats’ numbers merely aren’t pretty much as good. And that goes to the problem of voter teams that the councilman spoke about. The shortfall for Kamala Harris amongst African Individuals may be very important.
Councilman, why is the hole between voter registration from Democrats and Republicans closing? Is Charlie proper that turnout amongst Republicans — not less than in Republican pleasant areas — is larger than it’s for Democrats? These do sound like warning indicators.
Isaiah Thomas: I believe that there are warning indicators round voter participation. For us, the largest factor that we’re making an attempt to do is push individuals to the polls, to have the ability to train their proper to vote. Because it pertains to the voter registration swing, I believe we see that because it pertains to not simply the historical past of Pennsylvania, however typically the historical past of states that come underneath the class of being known as swing states. While you take a look at what occurred in 2016 if you had a Democratic president, you’ve seen our state go purple. While you take a look at what occurred in 2020 if you had a Republican president, you’ve seen our state return blue. Our objective proper now could be to finish that sample and put us able the place we are able to see Pennsylvania in two consecutive presidential phrases proceed to elect Democrats.
I need to be very clear: What Charlie talked about is certainly one thing that is extraordinarily alarming and regarding. It’s a sample that existed lengthy earlier than I turned a member of metropolis council. However that is why we see the grassroots effort that we see. That is why you see loads of bodily presence on the bottom. That is why you see loads of completely different initiatives and efforts to push individuals to the polls to get them out to vote. And that is why you see loads of the coalitions that we mentioned earlier being organized throughout Pennsylvania to have the ability to offset among the issues that we have seen beforehand because it pertains to presidential races.
The priority is there. Simply because I am assured that we’ll win doesn’t imply that I fall asleep each night time with no excessive stage of hysteria. The anxiousness is there. The worry is there. We’re nervous about what a Trump presidency would imply for 4 extra years for cities like Philadelphia. As a result of we all know that loads of people speak about how dangerous issues are proper now, however lots of people have a brief reminiscence. Some of the troublesome instances of my life was being part of the 2020 legislative department of presidency right here within the metropolis of Philadelphia, the place the previous president refused to provide stimulus monies to cities, the place Philadelphia had misplaced more cash than any main metropolis in your entire nation in addition to Detroit. So the anxiousness may be very excessive.
Why do you assume this type of shift occurs each from time to time? What’s it concerning the Democratic Celebration that folk in Pennsylvania aren’t feeling?
Isaiah Thomas: I would not say what it’s concerning the Democratic Celebration. I’d say that it is a regular shift that you simply see in swing states. Why would we not say, “What’s it concerning the Republican Celebration that folk aren’t feeling?” I believe what I’ve skilled and what I’ve seen is that life is hard for individuals, particularly individuals of shade. Philadelphia is likely one of the poorest large cities in your entire nation. It is robust for individuals to constantly vote in any method once they do not see tangible change of their life. Once we’ve seen a Republican governor with a Democratic Legislature, we have seen among the hardest choices we have ever made when the commonwealth was actually struggling, and we determined to stability the funds off the again of public schooling and that put a governor able the place he was the primary one-term governor that we have seen in latest historical past.
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Charlie, which voters in your eyes have probably the most energy on this election?
Charlie Gerow: Nicely, let me first say to the councilman that anxiousness is a shared illness.
It’s bipartisan.
Charlie Gerow: It’s totally bipartisan. If he isn’t sleeping nicely at night time, neither am I. And we agree too that Pennsylvania will not be solely a swing state, it’s the swing state.
The shift that you simply requested the councilman about I believe may be very important. It isn’t solely a geographic shift in Pennsylvania, nevertheless it’s a demographic shift of very attention-grabbing type. Once I was rising up, we had been all the time informed, “Oh, the Republicans are the social gathering of the wealthy, the silk-stocking, ‘brie and Chablis’ nation membership set. And Democrats are the social gathering of working individuals and the populist people, and so on.” And that is actually been turned on its head in Pennsylvania. In case you take a look at the place the registrations at the moment are, the place the voting patterns happen, now you have acquired a powerful populist coalition that has been rising through the years. I labored for Ronald Reagan and we used to speak about Reagan Democrats. They now are Trump Republicans. And that could be a shift that is been happening for a very long time. And in case you take a look at the rationale that the collar counties round Philadelphia — Montgomery County, particularly — these are rich, extremely educated individuals which might be a part of the Democrat constituency and core now.
So if you say which voters are going to be probably the most important, clearly the fast and straightforward reply is each vote is critical. However if you need to take a look at it in additional goal phrases, I believe that [it’s] union households, that are more and more supporting Donald Trump. You noticed the Teamsters unwilling to make an endorsement, however once they polled their membership, the rank and file had been all for Trump and ditto with the firefighters and different important parts of organized labor the place the management is perhaps one place, however the working women and men are in one other place altogether. I believe that the important thing areas are going to be these. I consider Luzerne County, which simply flipped from Democrat to Republican, the town of Wilkes-Barre and the encircling municipalities there will probably be a key space. I believe Bucks County will probably be a key space. Simply to the north of Bucks County, loads of the nationwide people are saying that Northampton, which is the town of Bethlehem and its surrounding areas, goes to be important. And on condition that each campaigns have targeted on the far northwest nook of the state not too long ago, I am going to throw Erie in there as nicely.
Isaiah Thomas: Initially, let me be clear: I’ve by no means met Charlie, and simply being on this podcast with him, he seems like a man I would not thoughts having a beer with in the future. However I could not disagree with him extra because it pertains to among the issues that he simply stated.
Charlie Gerow: Any time, councilman.
Isaiah Thomas: I find it irresistible, Charlie. I like the power.
A very powerful voting demographic on this explicit election is white girls. I believe even within the work that I am doing round Black males and Black communities, even when the whole lot goes flawed, 90 % of Black girls will nonetheless vote Harris. 80 % of Black males will nonetheless vote Harris.
While you take a look at points like a lady’s proper to decide on and an impression that that has during the last couple of years and the way it resonates with voters all throughout the commonwealth and actually all throughout the nation, I believe white girls is the one demographic of oldsters who we have to actually take a look at and say the way in which that they vote can have a big effect on the end result of this election.
I additionally hearken to Charlie speak just a little bit concerning the registration being up. However we have additionally seen extra Republicans endorse Kamala Harris in her marketing campaign than what we have seen any time in latest historical past. I’ve by no means seen so many Republicans come out — outstanding Republicans, native Republicans — come out and endorse a presidential candidate on the opposite facet of the aisle.
Final however not least, union households. With all due respect, my father’s a former instructor within the metropolis of Philadelphia. I am a former educator. And after I take into consideration unions like SEIU 32BJ, the PFT and the AFT, Unite Right here and an entire bunch of different unions, our principal’s union. There’s so many unions that signify employees throughout the town of Philadelphia, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Our SEPTA employees, TWU.
While you take a look at a difficulty like collective bargaining and proper to work, on the finish of the day, I do not assume it is truthful to say that union members do not perceive points like that to the purpose they are going to vote in opposition to their very own pursuits. And I am positive the union numbers will probably be very sturdy in favor of Harris-Walz.
In case you take a look at a lot of reporting, Vice President Harris’ presidential marketing campaign could have the least quantity of help from nationwide unions for Democrats in a very very long time. What does that inform you about how people view the Democratic Celebration?
Charlie Gerow: I’ll concede that among the many unions that the councilman talked about, Kamala Harris goes to do very, very nicely. The general public sector unions are very, very completely different in mindset and in voting sample from the individuals who make issues and ship issues. These are the union people which might be supporting Donald Trump and doing so in important numbers.
Isaiah Thomas: I simply need to additionally acknowledge that these union numbers are a lot smaller. Proper? We’re speaking about considerably much less individuals who make up the unions that you simply’re speaking about in comparison with the unions I am speaking about. I did not even speak concerning the tens of hundreds of municipal employees who signify AFSCME district council throughout Pennsylvania. I positively respect the place you are coming from and I am not going to negate that time, however I simply assume that the union members who’re going to help Vice President Harris — each on the high because it pertains to management and in addition to union membership — will probably be considerably larger in Pennsylvania in comparison with those that will help former President Trump.
Black males have overwhelmingly for many years supported Democrats. Donald Trump will not be going to win Black males in Pennsylvania or general. However he does appear to be consuming into the Democrats’ help. Black males that we have talked to or which might be polled or are in focus teams are pondering of staying residence or they’re occupied with voting for Donald Trump.
What’s going on with Black males and their help for Democrats proper now?
Isaiah Thomas: I believe that this downside could be quite a bit worse if former President Trump was not on the high of the ticket. However with that being stated, I’ll acknowledge that the issue does exist. I do not come throughout many Black males, and I can not even identify an individual who says in a critical capability, “I am voting for former President Trump,” particularly one over the age of 24-25 who watched what occurred throughout 2020. That is simply not a practical factor.
Now, there are loads of Black males who’re occupied with not voting. An enormous a part of the issue that we’re seeing is a disconnect between what authorities has or has not achieved for Black males particularly of their on a regular basis life. We have additionally seen a worry because it pertains to nationwide politics to have the ability to say definitively, “That is what I am doing for Black males completely.” That is an issue. And it has been an issue on each side. Authorities must do higher for Black males, however we additionally have to do higher speaking the small victories that we have gotten for Black males so individuals can perceive how their vote has a direct impression on their on a regular basis life.
Quentin Fulks, the principal deputy marketing campaign supervisor of the Harris marketing campaign, stated that the social gathering has to do a greater job of simply saying, “This coverage is for Black males.” And also you had Vice President Harris earlier this week define some new coverage prescriptions. So it looks as if they’re getting the message, however we’re getting fairly near sport time right here.
Charlie Gerow: I believe it is fascinating that Donald Trump was known as a racist by the media yr after yr. However after being known as a racist for all these years, 4 years in the past, he did higher among the many African American neighborhood than any Republican since Richard Nixon — and notably amongst youthful Black males. I dwell in a a lot smaller metropolis than Philadelphia however we have now a major African American inhabitants right here. They usually inform me, “No means in hell I am voting for Kamala Harris.” I imply, I hear it over and again and again, largely as a result of they are saying, “This administration has been dangerous for me and my pocketbook.”
Now, the councilman is appropriate. A few of them are saying they don’t seem to be going to vote in any respect. I do some work on a neighborhood tv affiliate right here in Harrisburg, and so they did a spotlight group in a barbershop. They didn’t have one vote there for Kamala Harris, which actually shocked the heck out of me. Now, once more, a number of of them stated they weren’t voting in any respect, however there was simply no help in any respect. And that needs to be very, very troubling to my Democratic mates.
I imply, to be truthful, Biden has presided over file low Black unemployment and poverty. Councilman, I am assuming you have got some responses to what Charlie stated.
Isaiah Thomas: I believe a part of the Black neighborhood’s frustration is that the Trump supporters do not dwell in actuality. It’s important to acknowledge details and issues that basically occur. And also you, because the moderator, simply listed details. You did not even speak concerning the “Black job” remark, which will be skewed in loads of other ways. And when you consider how he dealt with race-related points in Charlottesville and different locations throughout his time as president, it might be good to say, “Possibly the previous president made a mistake up to now and he sees issues otherwise.” However that is by no means what occurs if you’re speaking about this explicit candidate for president.
While you speak concerning the points that voters in Pennsylvania are most targeted on, one which I preserve listening to about is fracking. However what is also on the desk? What are the highest three points, Charlie, that you simply hear if you’re speaking to voters and polls?
Charlie Gerow: Nicely, I am going again to the previous adage within the Clinton warfare room: “It is the financial system, silly.” However beneath which might be a few different points. Most importantly, unlawful immigration, which underneath the watchmanship or watchwoman-ship of the border czar was completely and utterly uncontrolled. And let me simply say, earlier than anyone will get the notion that I am anti-immigration: I’m an immigrant. I carried a inexperienced card. I am a naturalized American. And people people that got here right here legally who did it the best means have a very sturdy view about people which might be sneaking throughout the border illegally and doing the issues which have been a travesty to our republic since their arrival.
Fracking is big in some areas of the state. People there understand what it is achieved for them economically, what it is achieved for them culturally, and the way vitally vital it’s to their households. They usually nonetheless hear the phrases of Kamala Harris when she stated that she was completely against it and supported an absolute ban on it. Now she says that is not true, however people understand that there are different methods to kill that business in addition to an outright ban.
Councilman, what about you? What are the three largest points that you simply hear if you speak to voters? I assume the financial system continues to be primary throughout the board.
Isaiah Thomas: I truly assume the primary concern I hear is simply the power to serve. I believe lots of people see former President Trump as any individual who’s simply unfit to serve. Whether or not it is the felonies he is been charged with, whether or not it is the Jan. 6 rebellion, whether or not it is how he dealt with his management tenure, responding to pure disasters in Puerto Rico and different locations, individuals view him as unfit to serve. And I’ve talked to lots of people, even Republicans. I truly coach highschool basketball and I used to be at a sport this weekend the place a rival coach was speaking to me about how he and his 70-year-old Republican pal have been knocking doorways up and down their explicit suburban neighborhood as a result of they only view President Trump as somebody who’s unfit to serve.
I do agree with Charlie that the financial system is certainly one of many high three issues that we have been listening to about. However once more, I believe that for us, we have now to remind those who the financial system is the place it’s proper now due to choices that had been made in 2020.
After which the third factor that I hear quite a bit about will not be essentially the Supreme Courtroom immediately, however choices made by the Supreme Courtroom. Taking a look at Roe v. Wade, affirmative motion, these are issues that folks speak about on a constant foundation — e book bans — issues that folks really feel like a direct assault on Black and brown communities.
It looks like Pennsylvania is the bellwether state of America. Charlie, what’s the swingiest area of the bellwether state for the nation?
Charlie Gerow: Essentially the most important swing area goes to be southwestern Pennsylvania, which isn’t solely Allegheny County, the place the town of Pittsburgh is, however the entire surrounding counties the place conventional Democratic counties at the moment are voting Republican and I consider will accomplish that this yr as nicely. I believe that is going to be the place the election is received or misplaced.
Councilman, is he proper?
Isaiah Thomas: Cannot say Charlie is flawed about that. I believe that that is an space that may swing. And we even have to take a look at Delaware County as nicely, too. We all know that Democrats not too long ago took over that space and we’re hoping that we are able to preserve a Democratic stronghold on that individual neighborhood.
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