The Athletic’s NFL QB inventory report, Week 1: It’s Patrick Mahomes, then everybody else

Quarterbacks have by no means been extra helpful within the NFL, and that’s now true on a number of fronts.

Not solely do groups want an ideal one to contend for a Tremendous Bowl, however in addition they should be nice at asset administration to take care of roster integrity round these exploding contracts. Nineteen quarterbacks are incomes no less than $30 million yearly — simply six years after Matt Ryan turned the primary $30 million QB — together with eight who’ve already topped the $50 million barrier.

The wage cap dynamics have modified due to the league’s rising income, largely because of new media offers and partnerships with sports activities betting websites, so there’s more cash to go round. And due to that, if groups have even an honest quarterback, they’re extra prepared than ever to fulfill market worth to maintain them.

As such, the QB highlight has by no means been brighter, so we’re instituting a brand new weekly characteristic this season. We are going to publish “The Athletic QB inventory report” each Tuesday morning, beginning with an influence rating of the 32 starters and highlighting four-to-six noteworthy gamers or developments throughout every story.

We’ll preserve tabs on whose inventory is altering most dramatically, the QBs below essentially the most strain, who has essentially the most attention-grabbing upcoming matchups and an assortment of different classes that really feel pertinent on any given week.

So with that, welcome to our inventory report for Week 1! It’s our preseason have a look at the place issues stand and a pleasant solution to set expectations earlier than anybody hits the sector. It’ll even be a good way to measure essentially the most distinguished risers and fallers between now and the tip of the season.

We look ahead to bringing this to you every week.

The Mahomes highlight

Now a three-time Tremendous Bowl champion and two-time NFL MVP, Mahomes has cemented himself as the brand new customary within the post-Tom Brady period.

Absolutely, it’s been apparent for some time Mahomes is the very best within the league, however he marched the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs to a different Lombardi Trophy final season whereas wading by means of as a lot chaos on the sector as they’ve ever endured. For therefore lengthy all through the common season, the talent gamers have been inconsistent at finest and mistake-prone in clutch moments, however Mahomes nearly at all times discovered a solution to rally in essential conditions, particularly throughout the playoffs.

Later this week, our annual league survey of executives and coaches will reveal Mahomes to be the runaway MVP prediction. Whereas the result wasn’t a shock, the landslide within the balloting absolutely made a press release. The league has realized to by no means write off Mahomes.

The hole between Mahomes and the remainder of the sector is as extensive as ever.

Breakthrough candidates

Who could be this 12 months’s Stroud?

Tagovailoa has had the numbers however must make extra performs off schedule and in clutch moments in opposition to high quality opponents to cost up the board. Lawrence undeniably has top-10 potential if he could be extra constant and get the Jacksonville Jaguars again into the playoffs. Hurts will return to the MVP dialog if new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and co. determine it out in Philly.

Probably the most consideration, nevertheless, is likely to be within the NFC North with Love and Williams. Love was completely dynamite for a lot of the Inexperienced Bay Packers’ last 12 video games, together with the playoffs, and he turned these two months right into a four-year, $220 million contract. If that was merely a launch level, Love will simply end the season ranked inside the highest 10.

Williams has the expertise to get there, however let’s not faux there’s a Stroud-like efficiency going down each season. Williams is working with among the finest casts of talent gamers within the league, so he’s arrange for fast success if the offensive line pulls its weight. Chicago Bears followers must be ecstatic over the path of the franchise.

Richardson, Daniels, Levis and Younger are dark-horse candidates to make a giant soar. It’s additionally doable Watson is means too low on this listing, and he may fly into the highest half if the Cleveland Browns choose up the place they left off in 2023.

Control Murray, too. Now wholesome and with Marvin Harrison Jr. within the lineup, Murray may do some spectacular issues with extremely revered OC Drew Petzing. The Arizona Cardinals are a staff on the rise. Simply how excessive they climb might rely upon Murray.

Damage questions

There are a handful of quarterbacks at various factors of their careers who want higher damage luck in 2024.

Burrow’s ceiling has solely been restricted by damage, however there have been a lot. A devastating knee damage prematurely ended his rookie season in 2020, and he went down early once more in 2023 because of a torn wrist ligament, to not point out the calf pressure that worn out most of his summer time. He performed by means of different noteworthy illnesses in 2021 and 2022. Burrow has the potential to trim the hole with Mahomes down the road, nevertheless it’ll by no means occur if he can’t stack wholesome seasons collectively.

Herbert, after all, has all of the bodily instruments, however he’s been compiling accidents, as properly. He missed most of coaching camp with a plantar fascia damage and has handled finger accidents and fractured rib cartilage in current seasons. There’s optimism his new head coach Jim Harbaugh can elevate Herbert’s recreation, however the QB has had a troublesome time shaking these nagging accidents.

Lawrence caught the damage bug final season, coping with a number of illnesses that ultimately caught up as he missed the primary recreation of his profession. Was it a one-off season, or will this grow to be a development?

Rodgers and Cousins are every coming off a torn Achilles, and their new(ish) employers proceed to hope their respective arrivals can reverse the fates of their franchises. Rodgers lasted 4 snaps final season with the New York Jets, whereas Cousins landed a four-year, $180 million contract to assist coach Raheem Morris enter a brand new period with the Atlanta Falcons.

Watson hasn’t recaptured his manufacturing from Houston, whether or not it was because of his prolonged layoff due to his suspension or the accidents that adopted go well with. He’s been cleared for takeoff with the Browns, however the group remains to be maintaining tabs on his energy after coping with a displaced fracture in his proper shoulder.

Richardson confirmed electrical potential in components of 4 video games as a rookie, however he additionally went down throughout every begin, together with a concussion and the season-ending proper shoulder sprain. Richardson might have the widest hole between his ceiling and flooring as any starter within the league. We’ll discover out this 12 months if he’s injury-prone or if his accidents have been simply wretched luck that’ll be forgotten upon his rise to stardom.

There’s a saying within the NFL that “harm guys keep harm,” however there are exceptions. Jackson overcame back-to-back injury-shortened seasons to win his second MVP. Purdy and Tagovailoa have been within the MVP dialog final season after overcoming their very own damage woes in 2022. Murray seemed the half down the stretch after his ACL restoration.

As at all times, accidents will play a major function within the story of the season.

Rookie highlight

Williams, Daniels and Nix have already been named the starters. Drake Maye will open the season on the New England Patriots’ bench, nevertheless it’s solely a matter of time earlier than he takes over for Brissett. Michael Penix Jr. is on the Love plan firmly behind Cousins for the foreseeable future. J.J. McCarthy is out for the 12 months with a torn meniscus.

Justifiably, Williams carries the best expectations because the No. 1 choose and in the very best scenario. Daniels will doubtless make a play each week that goes viral, however the Washington Commanders are in all probability going to be inconsistent. Earlier than the draft, Nix was seen as a degree guard who may grow to be a strong starter in the fitting scenario, and coach Sean Payton’s friends across the league consider Nix has simply that. Maye seemed like the higher quarterback on the finish of camp however ought to profit from the early respite whereas the Patriots attempt to work by means of issues on the offensive line.

It’s an thrilling rookie class, however they want the time and sources to develop. Most of the time, the heralded 2021 QB class wasn’t afforded these luxuries, and 4 of the 5 first-rounders are already on totally different groups in consequence.

Right here’s to altering the narrative with the 2024 class.

(Photograph illustration: Daniel Goldfarb / The Athletic; picture: Ryan Kang / Getty Photos)