Jockeying for energy is at all times a characteristic in politics, however in the case of getting forward in Trump world, it’s barely under the floor. Even earlier than the election, in truth, some prime Republicans seemed to be maneuvering for a possible future in Donald Trump’s subsequent administration.
“Ric Grenell raised some eyebrows when he appeared alongside Trump on the Zelenskyy assembly in September,” mentioned Meridith McGraw, POLITICO’s nationwide correspondent who has been protecting Trump since 2019. Now, she added, the pugilistic former Trump administration official is getting talked about as a doable decide to guide the State Division. It’s an consequence that may unnerve even some Republican senators.
McGraw mentioned the potential make-up of Trump’s subsequent Cupboard in aPlaybook Deep Dive podcast dialog with Playbook editor Mike DeBonis, who lined Home Republicans throughout the first Trump administration as they struggled to show his unorthodox marketing campaign agenda into precise coverage.
As soon as once more, the GOP is more likely to boast a governing trifecta, with management of the Home, Senate and White Home. However this time, though Republicans are set to have a slimmer Home majority, the GOP is extra ideologically in sync with their standard-bearer. That will make governing simpler than earlier than.
“The Paul Ryan occasion is gone,” DeBonis mentioned. “It’s Donald Trump’s occasion.”
This dialog has been edited for size and readability by Deep Dive Producer Kara Tabor and Senior Producer Alex Keeney. You possibly can take heed to the total Playbook Deep Dive podcast interview right here:
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How do you suppose the day-to-day goes to be totally different right here in Washington with Trump coming again?
Mike DeBonis: We’ve not been in a trifecta atmosphere for 2 years. We have had divided authorities. We will be again to unified management. And that implies that issues can transfer on Capitol Hill with out an enormous quantity of inter-party negotiation. We have clearly had a debt restrict negotiation, we have had spending negotiations — however on a few of these different massive points, it has been small ball. And now we’re again to massive ball.
Let’s begin with a number of the D.C. energy gamers which can be going to be tremendous related. One of the vital necessary of them is Susie Wiles, who Trump simply chosen as chief of employees. What will we find out about her?
Meridith McGraw: She’s anyone who has lots of respect from Trump, from his household, from his internal circle and from allies on the Hill. You suppose again to Susie coming in in early 2021, when Trump was fairly radioactive, no one needed to get close to him. And Susie began working for him again in March and cleaned up his political operation and actually shepherded his political comeback in lots of methods earlier than he even introduced his run for workplace.
Mike DeBonis: I simply need to keep in mind my favourite second from Trump’s victory speech the opposite night time, which is when he goes “Susie Wiles is the Ice Maiden. She’s the Ice Maiden.” And I simply thought that spoke to the place. After which her approaching stage and never eager to get —
She’s so uncomfortable within the highlight. You can inform.
Mike DeBonis: I’ve met her as soon as. We sat subsequent to one another on the Gridiron dinner and we exchanged some small speak. Based mostly on nothing greater than that, I might inform this can be a one that very a lot enjoys staying out of the highlight. And likes being in the course of issues however not out in entrance. It is actually who you need in that chief of employees job. If there’s something you discovered from the primary Trump time period expertise, it’s that individuals with egos, you are simply continually managing them. And if in case you have one among your personal, it is a recipe for hassle.
She’s acquired this actually fascinating relationship with Trump in that she will be able to inform him when she thinks he is incorrect. I’ve seen reporting about how she pushed again on Laura Loomer being on the Trump aircraft for some time. And generally he would not hear, however not less than she’s capable of kind of bend his ear in a method that more often than not it looks like he does.
Mike DeBonis: She appears capable of be anyone who will truly inform him disagreeable details. And appears to have some expertise for at all times speaking that — which, say what you’ll about Mark Meadows, he positive as hell didn’t understand how to try this.
Meridith McGraw: She has his respect in a method that, frankly, only a few individuals do.
Meridith, are there different individuals proper now in Trump’s orbit who you suppose we must always actually keep watch over? People who find themselves going to be influential on this transition course of?
Meridith McGraw: I believe proper now we’re listening to a number of the totally different names of people who find themselves concerned with the transition. A few of the former officers, individuals like [John] Ratcliffe or [Robert] Lighthizer or Brian Hook — individuals who have been previously administration however at the moment are serving to to gather names, resumes, concepts, coverage memos for issues that might be necessary to the following Trump White Home. It actually does really feel like all people who’s occupied with enjoying a task from the previous Trump administration is cropping as much as pitch in or put ahead names or be concerned indirectly.
Let’s speak in regards to the Hill, as a result of clearly if Trump needs to get issues handed in Congress, he’ll must work intently with Republican leaders. And there’s a large query mark proper now about who truly goes to be main Republicans.
Mike, let’s speak in regards to the Senate first. Mitch McConnell is retiring from his management position. There’s going to be a management election subsequent week. What are we anticipating?
Mike DeBonis: That is essentially the most fascinating management election of both occasion on Capitol Hill in most likely 20 years. It is laborious to understate simply how massive of a deal it is because whoever will get this job, it’s going to be the fruits of their profession most certainly. They are going to have the chance to guide the occasion throughout this time of nice legislative alternative with a probable trifecta. However then again, a number of the precise variations between these guys will not be all that appreciable, notably when you’re speaking about Thune and Cornyn.
The front-runners.
Mike DeBonis: John Cornyn is the prior Republican whip. John Thune is the present Republican whip. The third declared candidate is Rick Scott, the previous NRSC chair and former governor of Florida who’s attempting to be the conservative firebrand.
However the basic factor you must perceive about this race is that it would not matter what occurs anyplace besides inside that room of what might be anyplace from 52 to 54 Republican senators. They’re those who solid their secret ballots. Anyone exterior, even Donald Trump, would not essentially come to bear on that.
So on Thursday morning, John Thune was on Squawk Field and mentioned — he was requested about Donald Trump and whether or not he was looking for Trump’s endorsement — and he made this remark, Properly, I do not suppose it is in his curiosity to make an endorsement. Very fascinating remark, which primary is true, simply primarily based on the truth that it is dangerous.
Trump could make an endorsement and there is a likelihood it would not be heeded, and it could present some weak spot proper off the bat, in his first main political transfer after successful reelection as president. However for John Thune to say that, I assumed it was fairly fascinating. He is anyone who’s had this kind of up and down relationship with Trump.
Let’s go to the Home. It is form of unsurprising right here: Speaker Mike Johnson operating once more as speaker. Do we predict he wants Trump to maintain the gavel?
Mike DeBonis: I imply, hear, in Trump’s massive victory speech on Wednesday morning, he referred to as out Mike Johnson. He mentioned he’s doing a hell of a job. I simply do not see there being an actual battle over this at this level. Assuming Republicans pull it out and win the bulk, Mike Johnson principally achieved his primary aim, which is to carry on to the bulk. And I simply don’t suppose that there’s an urge for food within the Republican Celebration with an incoming trifecta to undergo some kind of prolonged management battle. In that case, I positively see Donald Trump talking out and saying, “Sufficient of this, he is my man. Let’s do that. We have got work to do.”
I hold listening to from some extra centrist, conventional Republicans who maybe have allies who they want to see take over as speaker or climb the ladder indirectly. They’ve been whispering that if there’s solely a one-seat majority, that we might see a contingent of Republicans say that he should not be speaker.
I agree with you, although. I simply suppose that there is going to be no urge for food for that.
Meridith McGraw: Occupied with the transition and the Senate, there are some senators who hold arising within the combine to be concerned within the subsequent administration: Individuals like Sen. [Marco] Rubio, who was there at Trump’s election night time occasion, a possible VP candidate at one level; Sen. [Bill] Hagerty’s identify retains arising for various positions; after which you have got a senator who’s vp, too. So who’s Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine going to be tapping for that place?
I believe there’s going to be some fascinating musical chairs within the Senate.
Mike DeBonis: What’s fascinating is that you just’re very more likely to see a few of these senators get tapped in an administration. I believe there’s nearly zero likelihood any Home members get tapped simply because the bulk goes to be so rattling slim.
Do not inform Elise Stefanik this.
Mike DeBonis: I simply don’t see in that state of affairs that they will threat shedding even a single member emptiness and ready months for a particular election to fill a cupboard place, not to mention an ambassadorship or like a deputy secretary of the Air Drive. It is simply not going to occur on the Home facet.
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I do need to dig somewhat extra into a few of these names we’re listening to.
For the State Division, there’s been rumors on the market that Trump ally and former appearing DNI chief Richard Grenell might be up for that job. That’s going to present lots of people heartburn right here in Washington — and I imply different Republicans.
Meridith, what are you listening to about him versus, say, Robert O’Brien or Marco Rubio, who you simply introduced up?
Meridith McGraw: So there’s been lots of behind the scenes lobbying and jockeying for a few of these positions. And it’s been happening for some time earlier than we had the election outcomes or earlier than the transition was beginning. I’ll say Ric Grenell raised some eyebrows when he appeared alongside Trump on the Zelenskyy assembly in September in New York Metropolis. He was there for a Log Cabin [Republicans] fundraiser. However the truth that he was sitting on the desk with Trump when this assembly was happening, individuals thought was form of fascinating.
Simply remind everybody why he’s so controversial.
Meridith McGraw: He’s recognized for being a fairly prickly man. He was actually the thorn within the facet of Germany when Trump had him as ambassador there. I do surprise if in your chief diplomat, you need to have anyone who possibly would not have a fame for being essentially the most diplomatic individual.
For Treasury, we’re seeing names like Robert Lighthizer, John Paulson and Howard Lutnick, who’s the transition co-chair.
There is a ton of names proper now, and it is laborious to inform at this level who’s floating themselves for jobs versus who’s truly actual.
Meridith McGraw: That is the massive problem with this era is that everyone’s throwing out their names and their allies are throwing out names, hoping that it will get on the checklist, that it will get in entrance of Trump’s eyeballs, that it sticks. With secretary of state, I believe Marco Rubio’s identify comes up so much, too, along with anyone like Grenell. However for Treasury, it is lots of these rich Trump allies. You already know, Invoice Hagerty on the Hill is talked about for Treasury however so is Scott Bessent, John Paulson, Larry Kudlow, Lighthizer and Lutnick, too. However Lutnick is, as co-chair of the transition, he is getting lots of scrutiny proper now for his personal enterprise ventures and doubtlessly mixing that together with his mandate to fill the Trump administration.
I talked to somebody yesterday who was complaining about not simply that, however interviews he is carried out earlier than Trump was elected — speculating that RFK Jr. could or could not get a cupboard place, suggesting Trump would possibly ban sure sorts of vaccines, simply speaking out of flip.
Mike DeBonis: I’ve simply been remarkably struck, notably amongst these Treasury of us, simply how open they’ve been about jockeying for this. John Paulson did an interview with The Wall Avenue Journal. He principally laid out the whole lot he needed to do. Scott Bessent, I believe, did an interview with the FT doing form of the identical factor.
These are elite organs the place Wall Avenue titans speak to one another and clearly to Donald Trump. To see that taking place in actual time has been such a throwback to the primary Trump administration, the place all this politicking that we at all times noticed taking place behind closed doorways underneath Obama and underneath Bush, was all out within the open. And it is all again out within the open once more, which is nice for us as reporters.
Meridith, you have been writing so much in regards to the America First Coverage Institute, and so they’ve kind of been the White Home in ready. Give us somewhat rundown about what precisely they have been as much as over there.
Meridith McGraw: So the America First Coverage Institute was created after the Trump White Home by lots of ex-Trump officers. Consider Linda McMahon, Brooke Rollins, Larry Kudlow — different people who find themselves over there embrace Hogan Gidley, Kellyanne Conway, actually kind of a Who’s Who of the previous Trump White Home. And over the course of the previous few years, they’ve constructed out this pro-Trump suppose tank that’s targeted on his “America first” insurance policies. They usually’ve described themselves as creating the constructing blocks for an additional conservative Republican administration.
I am curious if there’s a faction inside Trump world that’s kind of ascendant proper now.
Do we predict the populist wing at this level is extra ascendant? What about Elon Musk? Do you get a way that there is a sure crowd inside Trump world that has acquired his ear greater than others?
Meridith McGraw: I really feel like with Trump successful this election, the JD Vance-wing, the Don Jr.-wing of Trump world is in a very highly effective place. And I believe one of many issues we’re going to see play out within the subsequent a number of months is that this energy play between the populist nationalist motion that they’ve represented and different Republicans in Washington.
Even simply individuals like Speaker Johnson, who calls himself a Reagan Republican. I am having a flashback to my interview with him on the RNC the place I requested him about Trump’s tariff proposals. And he mentioned one thing alongside the strains of, “These are simply concepts. They don’t seem to be official.” These issues are going to return to a head.
Mike DeBonis: Yeah. I do not see a world the place Mike Johnson’s particular person coverage preferences are going to have an enormous quantity of bearing on what occurs, notably if the bulk is like two seats [in the House], which it very effectively could be. I’ll say I’m simply personally fascinated by Elon Musk and what position he’ll play. I watched that speech on Wednesday morning. Trump spent, I’d say, a heck of much more time speaking about Elon Musk than he did about his family and in regards to the individuals who ran his marketing campaign. And hear, Elon Musk will not be going to have an official position in authorities. He can’t get confirmed in something. However he’ll be round. He’ll be speaking. He’ll be visiting the White Home, and he is acquired the social media platform that drives dialog among the many political class. And it places him on this large place of energy.
Meridith McGraw: It’s clear that Elon’s in his ear. I used to be speaking to a Mar-a-Lago member yesterday. And guess who was waltzing across the membership? It was Elon Musk and his son. After which there was a video of Trump in Mar-a-Lago’s present store with Elon displaying him hats and stuff that he might purchase. They’re spending lots of time collectively.
Let’s speak about what Republicans are literally going to do with their energy. Meridith, what do we all know up to now a few “day one” or “week one?”
Meridith McGraw: I believe between tariffs and the border, these are going to be the most important priorities for Trump on day one.
Mike, the final time Republicans had a trifecta, they kind of acquired tripped up immediately. They’d talked about repealing Obamacare for greater than half a decade. They got here in, they targeted on that immediately. And as an alternative of getting it carried out, they spent the primary eight months of the primary 12 months of the Trump administration working to repeal Obamacare and failed. Are there sure classes that you just suppose Republicans, in the event that they need to be efficient, must take from that have?
Mike DeBonis: Sure. And have little doubt that that was a completely scarring expertise for congressional Republicans, lots of whom stay in Congress at this time. Hold this in thoughts: Republicans on the time had a 239 seat majority within the Home of Representatives. This time round, they’ll be fortunate to have 220 seats.
Oh my gosh.
Mike DeBonis: So the factor we’ll must be watching so intently all through 2025 is who’s the marginal member on a few of these issues that they need to accomplish and the place are they at and the place can they be moved? And that is going to dictate their vary of movement on taxes, on well being care, on immigration. Principally something that they’ll transfer on a party-line foundation goes to maneuver via the reconciliation course of, the particular process on the Hill that means that you can recover from a filibuster within the Senate.
They needn’t fear in regards to the filibuster to do many of the issues they need to do. They need to disassemble the Inflation Discount Act, which was Joe Biden’s signature coverage achievement that was handed by reconciliation. It may be undone by reconciliation. In order that’s the excellent news for them.
The unhealthy information is that they have a bunch of members who escaped by the pores and skin of their tooth in districts that both Harris gained or got here near successful. Don Bacon involves thoughts. There’s a couple of in New York. We will see what occurs in California. So that they must be intensely targeted on what it’s they will do and getting it carried out quick and with out an excessive amount of inner drama.
The opposite excellent news is that again in 2017, you principally had a celebration that was two events. You had the Paul Ryan occasion and also you had the Donald Trump occasion. And this time, the Paul Ryan occasion is gone. It is Donald Trump’s occasion. Even the Don Bacons and the Nick LaLotas and Mike Lawlers are all individuals who basically imagine in Donald Trump’s imaginative and prescient for America. And they’ll be there as votes on that reconciliation tax invoice. However they’ll have opinions on what precisely that invoice seems to be like.
How would possibly we see Democrats in Congress, activists, and so on., change their playbook with Republicans coming to energy right here? What ought to we anticipate?
Mike DeBonis: It is not going to be the identical because it was in 2017. There was a definite sense after the 2016 election that this was an anomaly. Hillary Clinton gained the favored vote. She was topic to this kind of October shock from Jim Comey. And there was this narrative that this was a fluke and that Donald Trump was in some sense an illegitimate president. That sense kind of drove the “resistance.”
This time, it is simply so utterly totally different. Donald Trump wins the favored vote. There’s this large shift throughout all these demographic teams. Blue states are transferring 5, 10 factors towards Republicans. And I simply do not see the identical animating pressure materializing this time.
That is to not say Democrats will not be going to withstand and will not be going to be the opposition. I believe it will take a a lot totally different type. They are going to decide their spots much more fastidiously. What I believe you are going to see is them coaching very particularly on problems with corruption and Elon Musk’s affect or his donor affect and attempting to deal with that somewhat than this complete “democracy is in danger and we want to withstand them in any respect turns” perspective.
The place’s Trump’s internal circle going to collect now that the Trump Lodge on Pennsylvania Avenue is gone?
Meridith McGraw: I nonetheless have previous Trump sources that need to return there as a result of a number of the workers are nonetheless on the resort. They keep in mind a number of the waitstaff that have been saved on and so they need to return and sit on the bar and say hello.
So possibly they’re going to go anyway.
Meridith McGraw: I imply, Cap Grille is at all times such a Republican spot. Joe’s, these locations.
Steve Bannon has acquired The Warfare Room on the Willard.
Mike DeBonis: It looks like there is a super enterprise alternative right here for some conservative restaurateur to return in and open a clubby steakhouse that serves steaks effectively carried out with ketchup. They’d most likely do fairly effectively.
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